Who will be each team’s Week 1 quarterback?
We’re getting close to NFL free agency and the draft, and this year’s quarterback market could be one of the craziest in recent memory. I count 19 teams that could have a different Week 1 starting quarterback than they did in 2019, and while that’s obviously the extreme outcome, it’s not that extreme.
So as we head into the changing-teams season, I wanted to get my predictions on the record. Today I’m predicting the Week 1 starting quarterback for every NFL team. Some of them are obvious. Some aren’t. I’ll write a little about the ones I deem write-about-able.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen
Miami Dolphins: Ryan Fitzpatrick — The Dolphins are definitely going to consider Tua Tagovailoa if he gets to them in the draft, but (a) I don’t think it’s anything like a guarantee that he does get to them, and (b) I wouldn’t blame them for giving Tua a little time even if they do end up with them. Fitzpatrick was good enough after regaining the starting job last year that I think they’d be comfortable letting him run the rebuild a little longer.
New England Patriots: Tom Brady — Maybe I’m naïve, but even now I can’t see Brady leaving the team. It’ll be a headline-full few weeks, and it’ll end with Brady signing a two-year deal with New England again.
New York Jets: Sam Darnold
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson
Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow — I suppose there’s still a chance Burrow doesn’t go to Cincinnati at No. 1 — either the Bengals trade out of the slot or decide Tua’s health makes this a conversation or something — but I can’t really picture it.
Cleveland Browns: Baker Mayfield
Pittsburgh Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger
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AFC South
Houston Texans: Deshaun Watson
Indianapolis Colts: Philip Rivers — This connection has seemed inevitable at least since it became clear Rivers wouldn’t be back with the Chargers, and while as a Colts fan I might like to see the team looking more to the future than this (Rivers can’t have more than a year or two left), I will certainly talk myself into it by Week 1.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Gardner Minshew — I think the Nick Foles market will be really interesting, but more in a “can they get anyone to take him?” sense than anything else. Regardless, I think this is Minshew’s job.
Tennessee Titans: Ryan Tannehill — I expect the Titans to retain Tannehill, maybe on the franchise tag, to see if he can repeat his big 2019 for a year before even considering a long-term deal. But he’s got to be worth more to the Titans than he would be worth to any other team.
AFC West
Denver Broncos: Drew Lock — I don’t think Lock showed much last year, especially not enough to be a team’s long-term solution, but he’s better than Brandon Allen and probably Joe Flacco, and with so many other teams trying hard for a new quarterback this offseason, the Broncos would be best-served to just give Lock another year and see what he can do.
Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes
Las Vegas Raiders: Derek Carr — I think the Raiders’ potential interest in Tom Brady is more style than substance, but even if they are interested, I expect Brady to stay with New England, and at that point, better for the Raiders to just stick with what they have.
Los Angeles Chargers: Teddy Bridgewater — This is probably the wildest pick of the bunch, but this Chargers team is in position to contend in 2020 if it has a competent quarterback, and Bridgewater is in position to finally be a starter again. His penchant for shorter passes is reminiscent of Rivers’, to the point that he could join that offense and it wouldn’t need a huge overhaul. I haven’t seen much connecting these two, but I like the matchup.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott — He’s a free agent, and the Cowboys have spent a lot of money on retaining other players already, but one way or another I expect the team to find a way to hang on to both Prescott and Amari Cooper. If it turns out they can only afford one, Prescott will be the choice.
New York Giants: Daniel Jones
Philadelphia Eagles: Carson Wentz
Washington: Tua Tagovailoa — With Tua’s health reports sounding better all the time, I expect Washington to find a taker for Dwayne Haskins on the cheap and pounce on Tua with the second pick in the draft. Passing on Chase Young is a big deal (and holy crap will Detroit sprint to the podium if this happens), but the chances of getting a difference-maker at quarterback is enough to make the move.
NFC North
Chicago Bears: Andy Dalton — The Bears will still have Mitchell Trubisky on the roster, and he and Dalton could be an interesting camp battle (if I’m Chicago, I also try to grab a Jalen Hurts type later in the draft), but I think Dalton would be the team’s best bet for a short-term solution.
Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford — If the money weren’t so insane, I’d be interested in the Lions possibly finding a way to get out of Stafford’s contract this offseason, especially if they could get Tagovailoa in the draft. As it is, though, even getting rid of Stafford would be so prohibitively expensive that it isn’t really worth exploring.
Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers
Minnesota Vikings: Kirk Cousins
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NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan
Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton — Give Newton the year to try to show he can still do it. If he can, an offense built around Newton, Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, and Curtis Samuel would be legitimately powerful. If he can’t, the rebuild can begin in earnest. (And if it goes truly badly, maybe they can get Trevor Lawrence for 2021, which would be really entertaining for the weapons and the geography.)
New Orleans Saints: Drew Brees — It never really felt like Brees would retire or play elsewhere, but he confirmed in February that he’d be back. Taysom Hill will see the field, but Brees is clearly the starter and dominant player.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jameis Winston — I just can’t find a logical fit for the Buccaneers other than the wild card they have already had. There are Teddy Bridgewater and Philip Rivers murmurs, but neither of them makes sense in a Bruce Arians offense (to me). I expect them to give Winston one more year as the starter and see if he can figure out a little ball security.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray
Los Angeles Rams: Jared Goff
San Francisco 49ers: Jimmy Garoppolo — If Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch could actually get out of the Garoppolo contract and have a quarterback they could trust more and/or pay less, I actually think they would do it, but I also don’t think there’s a great fit for that to work. Just stick with Garoppolo for another year; it’s not like the team didn’t do well with him already.
Seattle Seahawks: Russell Wilson