Baseball 2020: Playoffs and award winners

As MLB’s playoffs have grown and been given an outsized importance relative to the more-telling regular season, our perception of relative success and failure has gotten out of whack.

Take the Dodgers. As I mentioned Wednesday in my National League preview, this is a team on a seven-year streak of division titles and 90-win seasons. The second-longest streak of 90-plus wins is Cleveland, at four years. The second-longest streak of division titles is the Astros, at three years. By any rational definition, the Dodgers are a veritable dynasty. But because the team hasn’t had that much success in the crapshoot that is the postseason — two World Series appearances, no titles — this run is viewed as … well, not a failure, but certainly not a success.

Is that fair? I would argue it isn’t. But it’s reality. And that’s why the baseball playoffs warrant their own piece in my baseball season preview. Today, I’m taking a look at the playoffs and the award winners of the 2020 season. Remember: The further off in the distance and the shorter a series, the more difficult and ultimately silly trying to make predictions can be. So my division previews and such can be taken relatively seriously (as predictions go), but playoff predictions in March? It’s guesswork. Educated guesswork, but guesswork.

Wild Card games

A’S over YANKEES

The Yankees will be in a dogfight for the division title (I have them losing to the Rays by a single game), which will lead to them using Gerrit Cole down the stretch and not saving him for the Wild Card game. Masahiro Tanaka is fine, but the lack of Cole opens the door for the A’s to break through at last.

NATIONALS over METS

Like the Yankees burning Cole, the Mets will burn Jacob deGrom outlasting the Brewers, Reds, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Padres, and, I don’t know, Columbus Blue Jackets for the Wild Card berth. The Nationals might have to burn Max Scherzer or Stephen Strasburg as well, but they’ll still have the other one of the two and/or Patrick Corbin, who are a class ahead of Noah Syndergaard, and that should make the difference.

Division series

ASTROS over A’S in 4

The Astros remain one of the best teams in the game, even if the conversation surrounding them will be tedious all year. The A’s are a very good team, but just not on the same level. They’ll steal a game somewhere in there, but ultimately this won’t be a very competitive series.

TWINS over RAYS in 5

The Twins win a series! The Twins win a playoff game! Huzzah! The Rays as a team are ridiculously equipped for a long season, with insane depth and impressive flexibility. For a short series? It could be a bit spottier.

CUBS over BRAVES in 4

I don’t think either of these teams is great, but both are good. Ultimately, I think the Cubs eke this out, but (a) I don’t feel confident in it, and (b) I don’t think it matters that much, since either one will run into a buzzsaw in the NLCS.

DODGERS over NATIONALS in 4

If this series happens, it would feature some of the greatest collection of starting pitchers in a playoff series since … well, since these two faced off in the NLDS in 2019. But the Dodgers have improved their offense this offseason, while the Nationals’ lineup has gotten worse. That should make the difference.

League Championship series

ASTROS over TWINS in 6

Gerrit Cole’s departure means the Astros have a less dominant pitching staff, and the Twins’ additions could make their rotation better come October, but that’s more about narrowing the gap than actually changing the balance of power. MVP: Zack Greinke

DODGERS over CUBS in 4

Maybe I’m overrating this Dodgers team, but I don’t see a National League team that can give it a run. I not only think they’ll beat the Cubs, I think they’ll do it without really breaking a sweat. MVP: Max Muncy

World Series

DODGERS over ASTROS in 5

The Astros will steal a game. But as I mentioned Wednesday, this season really feels like a Dodgers coronation. I find it hard to envision a way outside of utter disaster the team doesn’t just roll through the season, and that includes the postseason. (And lord help us if the Astros beat the Dodgers again. The stories will be unendurable.) MVP: Clayton Kershaw

Award winners

MVPs

American League: Matt Chapman — The best fielder in the game (non-Andrelton Simmons division) and an upper-level bat. Obviously, Mike Trout is the actual MVP, but unless he puts up another 10-WAR season, the sheer monotony of his brilliance will have voters looking elsewhere.

National League: Mookie Betts — Arguably the best player on inarguably the best team, and definitely the guy who will generate the most headlines if he has a productive year. This seems like an easy call, to be honest.

Cy Young

American League: Zack Greinke — The A’s, Twins, and Rays are more about depth of rotation than star power. Most of the rest of the American League has eschewed pitching dominance. Really, the race is between Greinke, Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, and if we’re digging deeper, maybe Corey Kluber, maybe some of the Cleveland guys. There aren’t a lot of out-of-nowhere contenders here.

National League: Jack Flaherty — For the Cardinals to stay in the race all year, Flaherty will need to be a star pitcher. Well (and yes, this is obviously playing with arbitrary endpoints), after the All-Star break last year, Flaherty pitched 15 games, 99.1 innings, and put up an ERA of 0.91. If he can even pretend to do something like that in 2020 he’ll take this award.

Rookie of the Year

American League: Luis Robert — I wanted to say Ryan Mountcastle here, and I can see a path to it, but ultimately the fact that the White Sox already inked Robert to a long-term deal means he’ll start the season in the big leagues, and also Robert is just stupidly good.  

National League: Gavin Lux — There are surprisingly few rookies I expect to get massive playing time in the National League this year. I think the Nationals will play it slow with Carter Kieboom, and most of the rest of the pack is further away than you’d expect out of Rookie of the Year candidates. Really, it’s Lux’s to lose, though I could see Mitch Keller make a run if the Pirates’ new approach helps him and Lux struggles against lefties. Still, this is an easy pick.

Manager of the Year

American League: Kevin Cash — If the Rays succeed in beating out the Yankees for the American League East title, that will be enough to take the award over Rick Renteria in an American League without a lot of change at the top of the heap in 2020. Dusty Baker will also be in the conversation for navigating Houston through “adversity,” but I think there will be enough residual Astros hate to keep him from the crown.

National League: Dave Roberts — Luis Rojas will make a run here, carrying the obvious narrative of taking over a team that wasn’t even involved in the cheating scandal at the last minute. I could also see David Bell getting some conversation if the Reds stay competitive all year. But Roberts is going to be the man heading up one of the best teams ever, and that will be the storyline that wins him the award.

Comeback Player of the Year

American League: Chris Davis — All he has to do is hit .220 with 20 homers and he’d be able to steal this award. Admittedly, he might not even have that in him anymore, but it’s not a big ask.

National League: Lorenzo Cain — Cain put up a career-low BABIP last year despite a hard-hit percentage well above his career average and a soft-hit percentage below it. I don’t think he’ll get back to his peak performance, but there’s a huge gap between his 119 OPS+ of 2018 and his 81 of 2019, and even bridging some of that gap will get him there.