Baseball 2020: National League
You never totally know how sports will go. Heavy favorites lose. Big underdogs win. So when I say something looks like a fait accompli, know that that’s in the sports sense, where the Warriors can go 73-9 but then lose in the NBA Finals, and a season that looked like a quick romp to a title nonetheless got diverted.
But with that in mind, let’s just say: 2020 should be the Dodgers’ coronation season.
Maybe this is undercutting my piece for Thursday, when I preview the postseason and awards season and such, but it shouldn’t be, if only because that should be obvious to most people. There are good teams around baseball, but the Dodgers, who went from fourth in 2010 to third in 2011 to second in 2012 to first then first then first then first then first then first then first, are as primed as it’s possible to be to break through and win the World Series title.
As I said, that does not mean they will win. That’s not how sports work, and that’s especially not how baseball works. But if you’re picking a favorite to win the title right now and you’re not picking the Los Angeles Dodgers … you are probably not making a smart pick.
So that brings me to my National League preview for 2020. (Check out Tuesday’s American League preview as well.) I’m breaking down each team, with best-case and worst-case scenarios, projected records, and a few noteworthy storylines. Check it out, and laugh at me when the Dodgers somehow finish 75-87. (They won’t.)
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National League East
1. Atlanta Braves (projected record: 92-70, division winner)
The Twins and A’s get the most publicity for this, but it’s worth noting: The last time the Braves won a playoff series of any length at all was 2001, when they beat the Astros 3-0 in the NLDS before falling to the Diamondbacks 4-1 in the NLCS. The Braves have lost 10 straight postseason series (including a Wild Card game in 2012), going down in the NLDS each of the last two years. Billy Beane (well, Brad Pitt) gets the credit for “My shit doesn’t work in the playoffs,” but the Braves of the 2000s — good-not-great starting pitching and a strong roster around it — should really be the poster boys there. Still, though, for the regular season, not many teams have been more reliably constructed.
Best-case scenario: Ronald Acuña wins the MVP, Marcell Ozuna is a superstar one-year contract, Felix Hernandez recaptures some of his Félix Hernándezness, and the Braves run away with the division at 102-60.
Worst-case scenario: Ozuna had a 6.1-win 2017 season, but hasn’t reached 3.0 since 2014 otherwise. Turns out that’s who he really is, an average player. The secondary pieces in the lineup fail to support Acuna, the starting rotation is varying degrees of underwhelming-to-bad, and the team falls to 82-80.
Interesting storylines:
Odds are good it will ultimately end up inconsequential from a baseball perspective, but if you aren’t rooting for Félix Hernández to at least be a rough facsimile of Félix Hernández again, you don’t have a soul.
Ronald Acuña put up 4.1 WAR as a rookie in 2018, then 5.5 last year as a 21-year-old. He turned 22 in December and has almost 10 career WAR. He’s a superstar who has performed at just barely under-superstar level so far. Watch out.
2. Washington Nationals (88-74, 4 games back, first Wild Card)
Not many teams can roll out a more exciting core than the Nationals’ group of Trea Turner, Juan Soto, Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, and Patrick Corbin. You could fill out a roster with your local college team after that group and we’d at least have to talk about your chances. The problem is, at several positions, the Nationals have kind of done that, with castoffs Starlin Castro, Eric Thames, Asdrubal Cabrera, and others slated to have important roles this year. The departure of Anthony Rendon could be a significant one, and if one or more of the big names gets injured, the team’s depth is going to seriously be tested.
Best-case scenario: The big names stay healthy. The bullpen, reinforced by the addition of Will Harris, is a strength now. Carter Kieboom comes up and is a star. The Nationals, who won the World Series last year as a Wild Card team, win the division with a record of 97-65.
Worst-case scenario: Strasburg misses time with injury, as does Turner. Kieboom doesn’t come up for a while and doesn’t do a lot when he does arrive, and the Cabrera/Castro/Thames/Ryan Zimmerman class show they didn’t have a lot of bites in free agency for a reason. The depth is seriously tested and fails that test, and the Nationals fall to 75-87.
Interesting storylines:
Remember how I mentioned Ronald Acuña’s impressive WAR at a young age? Juan Soto has almost as many WAR (7.6), and he’s a year younger. It’s exciting times for young outfielders right now. This is a dude with projections of .290/.401/.541 in 579 plate appearances this year as a freaking 21-year-old. That’s impossible.
The Nationals got basically 750 innings from Strasburg, Corbin, Scherzer, and Aníbal Sánchez last year at a group 3.33 ERA (3.18 for just Strasburg/Corbin/Scherzer). If that can happen again, there’s no reason this can’t be one of the best teams in the game again. But that’s a big ask from four pitchers who are all north of 30 (two north of 35).
3. New York Mets (87-75, 5 games, back, second Wild Card)
You’d be forgiven for thinking the Mets had like 72 wins last year, because it always feels like the Mets had 72 wins in a season. In reality, the team went a totally respectable 86-76, finishing only three games out of a playoff spot. They did that despite an almost complete implosion from Edwín Díaz, the worst year of Robinson Canó’s career, and exactly eight plate appearances from offseason acquisition Jed Lowrie. So things could definitely be better in Metsland, but they could be way worse.
Best-case scenario: The pitching staff of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, Steven Matz, and Rick Porcello ranges from “above-average” to “best in the game,” while Yoenis Céspedes returns and helps and Michael Conforto’s current injury concerns don’t turn into anything. There are no dead spots in the lineup as the Mets go 96-66.
Worst-case scenario: Well, coronavirus. But then we just have to assume that’s coming to the Mets, because Mets. Absent that, Díaz continues to slump, Cano gets worse, J.D. Davis’ season was a fluke, and the starting pitchers after deGrom all fail to meet expectations. “LOLMets” goes full steam as the team falls to 70-92.
Interesting storylines:
Edwín Díaz being one of the most obvious bounceback candidates ever is an obvious prediction, but it’s a prediction nonetheless. The dude was absolutely never going to be Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn, and others, but he’s still a better pitcher than he looked like last year. He’ll be at a discount in fantasy, and he’ll be worth it.
Yoenis Céspedes’ seasons since 2015: 6.3 WAR, 3.1 WAR, 2.2 WAR, 0.9 WAR, no WAR at all because of ranch injuries. He’s 34 now, and we’ve certainly seen his best days, but if he can make it back as anything this season, he can be a real boost for the team.
4. Philadelphia Phillies (81-81, 11 games back)
Remember that Phillies-Cardinals playoff game, when Chris Carpenter pitched a shutout and got Ryan Howard to ground out to end the game, with Howard tearing his Achilles on the play? Feels like a long time ago, yeah? That was not only the most recent Phillies playoff game, it was also the last time they finished a season with a record over .500. The Phillies have finished third or worse in the NL East every year since then, averaging 73.5 wins and 21.4 games out of first place in the eight seasons. There are reasons for optimism for the team right now, but there are still some glaring weaknesses that will need to be overcome.
Best-case scenario: Andrew McCutchen comes back before the end of April, Bryce Harper plays like it’s 2015 again, so does Jake Arrieta, the bullpen actually manages to live through the year, and the Phillies win the division at 99-63.
Worst-case scenario: Man, could this go wrong. McCutchen can’t get healthy, and the team ends up with only one competent outfielder in Harper. Arrieta’s rapid decline continues, Zack Wheeler doesn’t pitch to his contract, the bullpen can’t stay healthy again, and the Phillies tumble to 69-93.
Interesting storylines:
We’re never going to see “four straight top-five MVP finishes” Andrew McCutchen again, but he did have a .378 OBP and .457 slugging through 59 games last year before he tore his ACL. If he can put up even close to that sort of numbers when he returns (whenever that ends up being, though the team has spoken optimistically), it would be a huge boon to a team that desperately needs outfield help.
Jean Segura turns 30 next Tuesday. He’s entering his ninth MLB season. He’s had three years over 4.0 WAR and three years under 1.0. He’s played for five different teams, including four over his last five seasons. He hasn’t had an OPS+ between 90 and 111 since 2013. It’s been an absolutely fascinating yo-yo career. And now he’s slated to be the Phillies’ primary third baseman, a position he has played exactly zero games at in the big leagues. So fascinating.
5. Miami Marlins (69-93, 23 games back)
Fun fact: The Marlins have a .462 all-time regular-season winning percentage, worst in baseball history (among active franchises, .001 worse than the Padres). They also have a .667 postseason winning percentage, comfortably the best in baseball history (the Yankees’ .585 is second). Does that matter? No, not really. It’s just a function of them winning the World Series in their only two lifetime postseason appearances. But man, that’s more fun to talk about than the current iteration of the team, which has gone 120-203 over the last two years, finishing a combined 66.5 games out of first. The last time the Marlins were even with 15 games of first place in the East was the 2009 season they went 87-75. That year, they finished 6 games out of first in the East … and that’s the closest the team has ever come to a first-place finish (both their postseason berths were via the Wild Card). It’s not been a great lifetime for the ol’ Miami baseball team.
Best-case scenario: Bargain signings Jonathan Villar and Jesús Aguilar reach their ceilings, Lewis Brinson realizes some of his prospect potential, and the admittedly interesting young pitching staff develops well. The team has a few hot stretches that earn some publicity here and there over the season, and the Marlins ultimately finish 78-84.
Worst-case scenario: Finding an All-Star from this roster is nigh-on impossible. Young pitchers either regress or just don’t develop. Corey Dickerson is the only average player in the lineup as Brian Anderson’s 2019 looks like a fluke, and the team falls to 59-103.
Interesting storylines:
In an MLB where teams either go all-in or as cheap and no-name as possible, the Marlins kind of zagged this offseason, bringing in Villar, Aguilar, Dickerson, Francisco Cervelli, Matt Joyce, Brandon Kintzler, and Brad Boxberger. Even if only two or three of those additions work out, it will give new life to lower-tier veterans around the league, the kind of player who has been squeezed out in recent years.
Overall, this pitching staff is still at least a year away, but there’s no starter projected to enter the season in the rotation older than 29, with three guys under 25, and there are plenty of potential guys coming along in the system as well. What you really hope for if you’re a Marlins fan (there’s gotta be a few of those out there) is a season of positive development and as few injuries as possible.
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National League Central
1. Chicago Cubs (88-74, division winner)
Like their 2016 World Series opponents in Cleveland, the Cubs made a really good team, went to the World Series, and then spent the next few years crying poor and refusing to invest in anything like an attempt at a dynasty. Unlike Cleveland, the Cubs (a) had a more well-rounded foundation at the time of that World Series, (b) have still pretended to spend on a team, even if they very clearly could and should have spent more, and (c) actually did win a World Series before crying poor. Still, a team with the resources of the Ricketts family settling for the desiccated remains of Jason Kipnis at second base and a bunch of witness-protection guys hanging out with Craig Kimbrel in the bullpen is pretty inexcusable.
Best-case scenario: Kris Bryant and Javier Báez both play like MVP candidates, Yu Darvish’s second-half surge from 2019 — he had a 2.76 ERA and a 118:7 K:BB ratio (!!!!!) after the All-Star break — continues, Kimbrel’s struggles from last year were a product of his late signing and don’t continue, and the Cubs ride a top-heavy roster to a first-place 97-65.
Worst-case scenario: Darvish’s surge was a mirage, Kimbrel really is washed, neither Báez nor Bryant can repeat their strong earlier seasons, and the team slumps … but it’s hard to imagine them falling too low, so their record would be around 79-83.
Interesting storylines:
Steven Souza’s 2017 was a really good year, with a 119 OPS+ and 4.1 WAR. Then he was pretty bad for half of 2018 before getting hurt, and then he got hurt again last year and hasn’t played. But the Cubs got him for essentially nothing (one year, $1 million), and while he’s not a full-time center fielder, he can be a nice fill-in at all three outfield spots if he’s healthy. That’d be a nice comeback.
If the Cubs could get the career-best WAR seasons from each of their five starters (Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester, José Quintana, Tyler Chatwood), that’d be a 26.0-WAR combo and a fantastic season. Last year, though, that group combined for 11.0 WAR. All five are over 30, and the fate of this team will largely rest on if they can age well.
2. Milwaukee Brewers (87-75, 1 game back)
The nature of doing predictions means you have to take a stand, pick standings, plant a flag. You can’t really preview a division by saying “Who knows, man. Any of these teams could win.” But in the NL Central, that’s basically true. (Well, not the Pirates.) I picked an order here, but if you put the top four teams in a Yahtzee shaker and scrambled it up, there’s not a permutation I’d fight very hard. These Brewers have been very good the last two years, but saw their No. 1 catcher, first baseman, and third baseman from last year leave, and replaced them with Omar Narváez, Justin Smoak, and Eric Sogard. Brett Anderson is 32 and just had his best career season by WAR, and even that was only 2.5. There are a lot of question marks.
Best-case scenario: Christian Yelich remains an MVP candidate, while Lorenzo Cain regains some of his superstardom as well. Luis Urías joins Keston Hiura to make the next great middle infield. The starting pitchers come together with a handful of career years, and the Brewers mostly slug their way to 94-68.
Worst-case scenario: Yelich doesn’t come back healthy after last year’s injury, and Urías’ broken hamate dooms his season as well. Cain went from 6.9 WAR in 2018 to 2.8 last year, and that proves to be an omen and not a blip. No starting pitcher puts up an ERA under 4.00, and as the team struggles, Josh Hader gets traded away. The team gave Yelich a bunch of money last week, but by the end of 2020 is forced to enter a quasi-rebuild as it finishes 75-87.
Interesting storylines:
Ryan Braun is sort of the forgotten man in Milwaukee. FanGraphs doesn’t even currently project him as a starter, though he’ll certainly get time at first in place of Justin Smoak and in the outfield in place of Avisaíl García enough that we won’t really have to worry about his playing time. And while he hasn’t been worth even 2.0 WAR since 2016, he’s a better player (especially offensively) than his current situation might have you believe.
For several years, Eric Sogard’s main claims to fame were (a) the glasses guy, and (b) the joke in the video game online vote that almost became a real cover. Suddenly, he puts up 1.9 WAR in 2017 and 2.6 in 2019 (in 204 combined games, sandwiched around an absolutely abysmal 2018), and he’s an almost-34-year-old starter for a team with playoff aspirations? Look, I’m all for underdogs, but this one doesn’t make a lot of sense.
3. Cincinnati Reds (85-77, 3 games back)
When A.J. Preller got the Padres GM job in 2015, he did so with at least marginal assurances that he’d get the team to compete quickly. To accomplish this, he sprinted out that offseason to make additions, nabbing Justin Upton, B.J. Upton, Wil Myers, and Matt Kemp for the outfield, James Shields, Brandon Morrow, and Craig Kimbrel for the pitching staff, and Derek Norris to catch. It was an audacious set of moves that got the Padres the crown of winning the offseason, even if it didn’t really add up to a full baseball team. They had a bunch of offense-first outfielders without a real way to deploy them but still a well below-average infield. It was all just a mishmash that made for headlines but didn’t work as a full team. And while it’s not a perfect analogy, there’s a lot of the 2015 Padres in this year’s Reds team. They signed Mike Moustakas to play second base (not his position) and Nicholas Castellanos to play right (he doesn’t have a position), signed Wade Miley to join a rotation of guys with potential, and are hoping they can just cram pegs into the right holes and make it work. Will it? It definitely could! But this is a … let’s say creative approach.
Best-case scenario: Joey Votto bounces back from a miserable 2019 to at least be relevant again, while the Moustakas and Castellanos offensive contributions outweigh the defensive deficiencies, Trevor Bauer is more 2018 than 2019, Sonny Gray is more 2019 than 2018, and the Reds surge to the top of the NL Central at 97-65.
Worst-case scenario: This pile of positionless question marks evokes strong memories of those 2015 Padres, while the pitching staff takes a step back. Votto really is over the hill. The Reds are more hype than substance en route to a finish of 74-88.
Interesting storylines:
Maybe it’s my memory that is fault, but I could swear that went Eugenio Suárez came up with Detroit in 2014, he was set up to be a glove-first guy who might develop enough of a hit tool to make the glove play at shortstop. Through three years, he had a .257/.316/.406 slash line that was enough for a guy at short. Suddenly, he’s a 28-year-old with a .271/.364/.521 the last three years, he’s made an All-Star team and garnered MVP votes in two years, and he’s been worth 12.4 WAR over the last three years. My brain still doesn’t quite wrap around Suárez being a bat.
It’s not just that Sonny Gray pitched better after leaving the Yankees. He did, of course, but it’s also notable that he had his best season. Gray had a 2.87 ERA last year (his career best was 2.73) with a 3.42 FIP (previous best was 3.45) and 5.6 WAR (previous best was 5.3). If that’s for real, the Reds have an ace. But man, he’s 30 now and was worth a combined 2.0 WAR in his age-26 to age-28 seasons.
4. St. Louis Cardinals (84-78, 4 games back)
The Cardinals last finished under .500 back in 2007, at 78-84. Before that, it had been since a 75-86 finish in 1999. Even for a team that has only made the playoffs once in the last four years, they averaged 87 wins a year over the last four. They’ve played in four World Series this century (winning two) and have made the playoffs 13 times. It’s been good baseball times in St. Louis. Cardinals Devil Magic has been a thing for a decade now, with Tommy Edman the latest beneficiary, coming up as a not-that-heralded 24-year-old last year and putting up 3.8 WAR in 92 games. No, that doesn’t make any sense.
Best-case scenario: The big years from Edman and Kolten Wong and Paul DeJong are complemented by bounceback years from Paul Goldschmidt and Matt Carpenter. Carlos Martínez makes a strong return to the rotation, and the Cardinals win the division at 94-68.
Worst-case scenario: Devil Magic runs out. Edman was a flash in the pan. Goldschmidt and Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are truly in their decline phases, and Martínez can’t stay healthy with a starter workload. With no real star players on offense, the Cardinals scuffle along to 75-87.
Interesting storylines:
At this point, anything the Cardinals ever get from Alex Reyes has to be treated like a bonus. He’s 25 now, but he debuted in the big leagues in 2016 and has battled injury ever since. Still, he has sky-high potential, and any positive news he generates, either in the minors or in St. Louis, will be a story worth monitoring.
There have been two Harrison Baders in the big leagues. The 2017 and 2019 version was a good fielder who could hit only slightly better than you and me, and only his competence in center field made him really worth much. The 2018 version was a (relative) stud on both sides, managing a 106 OPS+. Of course, that was on the back of a .358 BABIP. Bader’s glove will keep him around, especially since the Cardinals don’t really have a full-time center field alternative, but if he can regain any of that 2018 bat he’ll have so much more value.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (62-100, 22 games back)
At least Cleveland made a World Series before they cheaped out. The Pirates won one postseason “series” during their stint of contention, and even that was just a one-game Wild Card game win in 2015. The team hasn’t won a division title since 1992, hasn’t won a postseason series of more than one game since 1979 (!). And now the team’s full into a rebuild — the biggest names they added to the big league roster this offseason were (for real) Jarrod Dyson and Derek Holland. Those aren’t the acquisitions of a big-league team. Those are the signings of a fledgling “XFL but for baseball” league that wanted to at least pretend to have some star power.
Best-case scenario: Josh Bell and Gregory Polanco are good players, and an admittedly intriguing starting rotation pitches to its potential as the Pirates go 79-83.
Worst-case scenario: Chris Archer’s decline continues, Polanco can’t stay healthy, Bell’s relatively pedestrian second half last year (.233/.351/.429 after the All-Star break) continues, and the team sells off any moving part it has left as it tumbles to a record of 57-105.
Interesting storylines:
Remember when Gregory Polanco was a future star? Now, he’s a 28-year-old with 666 career games and 5.8 WAR. He has been a negative defensively and only marginally positive offensively while struggling with injuries (he’s averaged 93 games a year the last three years). If it’s ever going to happen, it has to be now.
The best ERA for a Pirates pitcher with more than 70 innings last year was Joe Musgrove’s 4.44. Archer, Trevor Williams, Steven Brault, and Jordan Lyles all came in over 5.00, and all but Lyles is still on the team. The flip side is what Chris Towers highlighted recently: This is a staff that has potential. Combine their underlying talent with a new approach, and there’s a chance for this staff to be decent-to-better. Not a great chance, but a chance.
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National League West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (110-52, division winner)
Cleveland is on a four-year streak of at least 90 wins. That’s the second-longest streak in the league. The Dodgers have the longest, and it’s almost twice as long, at seven years, including 104 in 2017 and 106 in 2019. The team hasn’t won a World Series in that time, but it’s been there twice, and the playoffs are fluke machines as it is. This isn’t a team that had a lot of work to do this offseason, but then went out and got Mookie Betts and David Price anyway. Heck, Jimmy Nelson, Alex Wood, and Blake Treinen are interesting reclamation projects. The team has three guys slated to start the year as backups — Chris Taylor, A.J. Pollock, and Enrique Hernández — with recent 3-plus-WAR seasons. Only one player in the projected starting lineup is over 30! I’ll listen to arguments that this isn’t the best team in baseball, but I’ll do so pretty skeptically.
Best-case scenario: I mean, there is no ceiling. Corey Seager plays like an MVP, only for Betts to play even better, only for Cody Bellinger to play even better than that. Clayton Kershaw pitches like the best pitcher of his generation and Walker Buehler pitches like the best pitcher of the next one. It’s not likely, but if absolutely everything clicks for the Dodgers and they actually try all year? This team could go 125-37.
Worst-case scenario: I’m trying here. Let’s say Betts doesn’t adjust to not-Boston. Price’s elbow won’t hold up. Kershaw looks old, Gavin Lux isn’t ready, all sorts of bad things happen. There are so many pieces here that short of absolute catastrophe, this team would still go 85-77.
Interesting storylines:
It’s true that Kershaw isn’t the pitcher he once was. It’s also true that he went 16-5 last year with a 3.03 ERA and 3.5 WAR, finishing eighth in the Cy Young voting, his eighth top-eight finish in the last nine years. That’s a career year for a lot of guys. He’s under contract for two more years, and while the end is coming all the time, any chance we get to watch this guy do what this guy does is not something to miss.
The Betts trade was supposed to lead to a Joc Pederson trade to the Angels, only for that to fall through for “Arte Moreno’s ego” reasons (I editorialize a bit there). Now, Pederson is a 27-year-old (almost 28) who has been worth 2.3 or more WAR in four of the last five years. He’s definitely not a star player, but he’s just as definitely a net positive, especially since the presence of A.J. Pollock will let Pederson fill more of a platoon role and not force him to see that many lefties. It’ll be fun if a guy who was supposed to be gone from the team altogether is suddenly hitting home runs in October.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks (85-77, 26 games back)
I absolutely refuse to go back through every team and figure this out, but the Diamondbacks have had a .500 or better record in 13 of their 22 all-time seasons, and that just has to be the best success rate in baseball history (Yankees possibly excepted). On the other hand, the team hasn’t won a division title since 2011 and has only won more than 90 games twice since 2002, so this is something of a good-not-great franchise, but hey, good-not-great is far better than not-good. The problem for the Diamondbacks and the rest of the West right now is that they are by all odds playing for a spot in a one-game Wild Card playoff, and that’s not a great situation for any team.
Best-case scenario: Breakout years for Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar keep going, and Madison Bumgarner pitches like the borderline ace he was signed to be. Kole Calhoun and Starling Marte recapture some of their magic of 3-4 years ago and the Diamondbacks get to 93-69.
Worst-case scenario: The ball isn’t as jumpy this year, bringing Escobar and Ketel Marte back to earth. The Dodgers run away with the division, and with a longshot bid for a Wild Card spot the best they can hope for, the Diamondbacks go into a mini-selloff, dealing Robbie Ray, Archie Bradley, and David Peralta in hopes of a rejuvenated run in 2021 or 2022, and they fall to 74-88.
Interesting storylines:
Through April 2 of 2018, Jake Lamb was hitting .249/.345/.495 from the start of 2016 through the first four games of 2018 (1,249 plate appearances). That’s not superstar numbers, but it’s very good. That April 2 was a 15-inning affair against the Dodgers in which Lamb banged his shoulder twice, and he missed the next month and a half with a sprained AC joint. In 444 plate appearances since then, he’s hit .203/.313/.351. Can we just say the shoulder is at fault? Obviously not. But man if that stinks. He’s looked good in spring so far, which is crucial for a guy with no obvious lineup spot entering a contract year. It would be great to see him rebound.
Archie Bradley, starting pitcher, career: 177.1 innings pitched, 5.18 ERA, 8.4 K/9. Archie Bradley, relief pitcher, career (counting one open appearance in 2019): 216.1 innings pitched, 2.95 ERA, 10.0 K/9. With Bradley opening the 2020 season as the Arizona closer, he’s not a contender for the highest tier of relievers, but he’s now officially a fascinating pitcher.
3. San Diego Padres (84-78, 27 games back)
That 2015 Padres season I mentioned up in the Reds section, when they went all-in with some baffling decisions that forced the rebuild? They went 74-88 that year … and haven’t had a year that good since, topping out at 71 wins in the four years after that. The Padres have made some big moves in free agency in recent years — most notably Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer — and pulled off some significant trades for guys like Fernando Tatis, Chris Paddack, and, this offseason, Tommy Pham, but so far A.J. Preller’s tenure as Padres GM has been more headlines than results, and if the team doesn’t start to see some of the latter this year, maybe next, we could see the end of the Preller tenure soon as well.
Best-case scenario: Tatis builds on his impressive rookie season, Machado is more his pre-injury 2019 self than post-injury, Jurickson Profar is more 2018 than 2019, Hosmer learns how to hit the ball in the air, and the pitching staff impresses as the Padres rise to 89-73.
Worst-case scenario: Hosmer continues to be a sunk cost. The Machado of August and September who hit .209/.305/.348 (and not the guy before that who hit .278/.348/.515) is the Machado we get. No Padres pitcher tops 140 innings. Wil Myers stays in the lineup. Preller loses his job, and Jayce Tingler only gets one year himself as the Padres go 67-95.
Interesting storylines:
Obvious “Daniel is biased” alert here, but the Padres will ride on Eric Hosmer a lot this year. We know Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado are good. We more or less know Jurickson Profar and Wil Myers aren’t. Hosmer? He’s had three seasons of 3.0 or more WAR, four seasons of 0.0-2.0, and two seasons of negative (including the most recent one). He’s literally never had a WAR that starts with “2.” If Hosmer can play like even an average ballplayer, the Padres can contend. If he’s anything like he’s been so far in his Padres career? He’s a sunk cost and they are bad.
Through 2015, Garrett Richards was a 27-year-old with 606.0 innings, a 3.65 career ERA, and a 4.4-WAR season under his belt. Since then, he’s pitched 147.1 innings in four seasons. His ERA is still good, at 3.36, but he just hasn’t able to stay on the field. He’s apparently healthy this year, slated to be the team’s No. 2/3 starter. If he can perform? That will really help.
4. Colorado Rockies (71-91, 39 games back)
Colorado is where free agents go to die. Daniel Murphy had 0.2 WAR in his first year in Colorado last year after three All-Star appearances in the previous five years. Ian Desmond was an All-Star with 2.7 WAR in Texas in 2016, then joined the Rockies and has -3.4 WAR in three years (all negative). Wade Davis had a 1.45 ERA in 2014-2017, but has a 5.92 in two years with the Rockies. Chris Iannetta had 1.8 WAR in 2017 with Arizona, then -0.8 in two years with the Rockies. Even Mark Reynolds, who was good enough for the team in 2016-2017, played for the Nationals in 2018, then came back in 2019 and put up -1.0 WAR. The Rockies have been decent at developing players from within, but they just need to ignore all the other big-league rosters around the league. They’d be better off.
Best-case scenario: Nolan Arenado plays through his frustrations with the team and continues to be an MVP candidate. Kyle Freeland and German Marquez pretend 2019 didn’t exist, while Jon Gray pretends it’s the only year that does. Daniel Murphy isn’t ever going to be a star again, but he can at least be a serviceable No. 6 hitter. The Rockies don’t make the playoffs, but the linger around the fringe of the race and finish 84-78.
Worst-case scenario: The Arenado situation gets even worse and it is reflected on the field. The pitching staff continues to be all Colorado-y, and Murphy is just done. The team starts to have to sell off pieces and ends up 64-98.
Interesting storylines:
David Dahl turns 26 in a few weeks. He debuted in the big leagues four years ago. Unfortunately, between sporadic play and injury, he’s still only played 240 career games. Still, he’s got a 111 career OPS+ (at least 109 every year) and made the All-Star team last year. The Rockies more or less know what they have in the Arenado/Trevor Story/Charlie Blackmon threesome, but if Dahl can be a stud at the top of the lineup, things start to look interesting.
Kyle Freeland finished seventh in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2017. He finished fourth in the Cy Young voting in 2018. He got sent to the minors in 2019. It was a total meltdown for a guy who put up a 2.85 ERA and 8.4 WAR in 2018, as those numbers awful-ed to 6.73 and -0.7, respectively. His lack of strikeouts caught up with him, and while he outperformed his FIP in 2018 and underperformed it in 2019, it was still a huge regression. If Freeland can even pretend to pitch like 2018, even 2017, that will boost the team.
5. San Francisco 49ers (64-98, 46 games back)
A World Series title in 2010. A World Series title in 2012. A World Series title in 2014. An NLDS loss in 2016. And then a 73-89 record in 2018, and even-year bullshit died. It is likely to stay dead in 2020, with the Giants definitely looking like a full rebuild is in store. There are some definitely interesting names on the Giants roster for 2020, but not many with a lot of potential and only one member of the projected starting lineup — 25-year-old Mauricio Dubón — under 29 years old. In fact, per the FanGraphs depth chart, Dubón and reliever Shaun Anderson are the only projected members of the 26-man roster or injured list under 26, and only those and Rule 5 guy Dany Jimenez are under 27. There’s going to be a rebuild in San Francisco, but right now it’s just a teardown.
Best-case scenario: The old guys collectively find a last wind, with Evan Longoria putting up another good offensive season, Buster Posey bouncing back, and the Johnny Cueto/Jeff Samardzija-anchored rotation holds its own. The Giants get a couple of “Wait, are they something?” stories written about them through May, but ultimately finish 76-86.
Worst-case scenario: Everyone who is already old just gets older. Samardzija, who has double-digit losses every full season as a starter, struggles, and Cueto can’t come back from his year lost to injury. The team doesn’t have a lot of players with trade value, but the ones that do have some get sold for whatever return they can get. The Giants have to pay back what they owe for all that even-year bullshit and do it all at once, finishing 58-104.
Interesting storylines:
Kevin Gausman struggled early in his career, but he looked like he was putting it together in 2016-2018, putting up a combined 9.4 WAR over those three years. And then it all fell apart last year, as he put up a 5.72 ERA and -0.7 WAR in a year split between Atlanta and Cincinnati. Signing with San Francisco this offseason, Gausman has one more chance to realize his potential.
Buster Olney’s been talking about this a lot this spring, but the new three-batter rule for pitchers could mean big things for a guy like Wilmer Flores. Flores has beaten up on lefties in his career but struggles against righties. If the Giants can deploy him strategically and get him to bat against lefty relievers who have no choice but to face him, he could have a nice little second act.