The worst-to-first and the first-to-worst in 2020 MLB

In the NFL, there are eight four-team divisions. So while it’s hard to go from worst to first or first to worst in football, it’s not that crazy. On Sunday, I tried to handicap the teams with the best chances to make the leap in the league.

In baseball? Making the big jump is harder. The Red Sox from 2015 to 2016 were the last team to go from last one year to first the next. So while I’m making the same efforts today for baseball that I did Sunday for football, I’m stretching it a little: Below, I’m going to rank the 2019 last-place teams by chances of jumping to first, and then I’ll do it again for fourth-place teams from last year. And then I’ll go the other way, looking for last year’s first-place, and then second-place, teams that could fall to last in 2020.

(Obviously, this is all dependent on there being an MLB season in 2020, which there … I mean, who knows, but based on everything going on right now, I wouldn’t expect it or think it’s a good idea. Hope it happens, though. I’ll count ‘em down, least likely to most likely.)

Worst to first

Last-place teams in 2019: Orioles, Tigers, Mariners, Marlins, Pirates, Padres

6. Detroit Tigers

What is it that is good about the Tigers for 2020? The minor-league pitchers could be interesting, especially if the abbreviated season gives the team cover for letting them spend the time in the bigs. I could envision a scenario where the Tigers jump the Royals. But that’s not the conversation. There’s no real way to push them to first.

5. Pittsburgh Pirates

While you could argue there are no great teams in the NL Central, there are four good teams in the division, which means that even if the Pirates surprise (somehow; I can’t really find a path to the team being good), they would have to count on four different teams falling flat at the same time.

4. Baltimore Orioles

Okay, look. All three of these teams are going to be really bad, and none of the three is going to rise to first place. But I had to sort them in some order, so the Orioles come in best of the group, but by about an inch. The Orioles have the advantage of being in a division with the Blue Jays, who aren’t very good, and the Red Sox, who could end up not very good after so many changes. I … can’t really devise a path to get the Orioles over the Yankees or Rays, but we’re getting there.

3. Seattle Mariners

Are the Mariners as bad as the other last-place teams? Maybe. But I could at least conceive of a path to this team not being a disaster. Add in the fact that the Rangers aren’t great, the Astros could be a giant cluster who should be great, but has more of a wild card situation than any other team in the league, and the Angels and A’s are good but not excellent, and maybe the Mariners can find a path. Unlikely, but not impossible.

2. Miami Marlins

Can you see yet why I felt the need to include fourth-place teams in this exercise? The Marlins promise to be a very bad team yet again in 2020, and yet they come in as the second-most-likely team to rise to first in this little game. The promise of some of the young pitchers getting a “full” season in the bigs, bargain signings like Jonathan Villar and Jesus Aguilar, and a few things breaking wrong for the flawed teams ahead of the Marlins, and it’s not that … okay, it’s pretty crazy.

1. San Diego Padres

Here is the lone last-place team from 2019 that I could formulate a scenario to argue them in first place in 2020, and even that scenario requires (a) career years from some players unlikely to reach career years, (b) Eric Hosmer to remember that he was supposed to be good once, and (c) a Dodgers team that by all rights should be the best in the league by a wide margin to fall flat. It’s not likely.

Fourth place to first

Fourth-place teams in 2019: Blue Jays, Royals, Angels, Phillies, Reds, Rockies

6. Kansas City Royals

The Royals promise to be very bad in 2020. When I wrote my season preview (back before we knew everything was going to hell), the most interesting storyline I could find for the Royals was Jorge Soler, and there was no real second-place storyline. They will not be good.

5. Colorado Rockies

If you can pick up the best seasons of each player on the Rockies, you could probably put together a pretty damn good team. The problem is, that’s a year ago for guys like Kyle Freeland and German Marquez, and a damn generation ago for guys like Daniel Murphy and Ian Desmond. Ain’t no time machine here.

4. Toronto Blue Jays

There was a window for the Blue Jays to be a surprise team if everything broke right, a window they abjectly squandered. Now, the team is … interesting enough. If Hyun-Jin Ryu reaches his peak and Nate Pearson is as good as advertised — given the shortened season, both could get a full complement of innings — there is a competent team here. Is there a better-than-New-York-or-Tampa team here? That’s a tougher sell.

3. Los Angeles Angels

The Angels have a chance at being fairly improved in 2020, especially if the delayed season gives Jo Adell some time in the bigs and Shohei Ohtani room to be a hitter and a pitcher. The scenario would require the Astros to fall flat, but then no team could have bigger “extenuating circumstances” problems. It’s difficult, but plausible.

2. Philadelphia Phillies

The delayed season should help the Phillies at least get Andrew McCutchen back, though the team still desperately needs a center fielder. There are essentially no sure things on the Phillies though (outside of Bryce Harper), which gives the team a huge range of outcomes. Still, it wouldn’t be a crazy outcome if the Phillies bested the other NL East teams. No one would blink twice.

1. Cincinnati Reds

If Joey Votto can find a time machine, Trevor Bauer can find a time machine, and Sonny Gray can find a not-time machine and pitch like its 2019, the Reds could have a great top end. The mishmash of bad fielding (Mike Moustakas at second, Nicholas Castellanos in the outfield, etc.) could cost the team, but things could work out. A first-place Reds team wouldn’t even shock me that much.

First to worst

First-place teams in 2019: Yankees, Twins, Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers

6. Los Angeles Dodgers

If you remember my season preview, I had the Dodgers winning more games in 2020 than there are now likely to be in the season. The Dodgers are the best team in baseball, and by a fair amount. If everything goes wrong, could they finish second, third? Sure. Could they be worse than the Giants? I have no idea how that could happen.

5. New York Yankees

Sure, the Yankees could struggle — Gerrit Cole could have a rough transition to New York, the Gio Urshela types could fail to maintain the surprise of 2019, the Stanton/Judge types could stay injured. Most people forecast the Yankees to win the division, but I had them second because of the question marks. But the Red Sox stripping down, the Blue Jays needing development, and the Orioles being … well, the Orioles, all make it hard to picture the Yankees falling to last.

4. Houston Astros

If the Astros fall to last, it won’t be because of baseball talent. It will be because of off-field factors relating to the fallout of their sign-stealing scandal. The Astros were always going to be a good team in 2017 (and the surrounding years), with the sign-stealing only boosting an already-high talent level. So the players aren’t going to be unable to hit or anything. But every team, every fanbase hating the team? Could that have an impact? I mean, maybe. I don’t expect it, but if outside factors were ever going to hurt a team, it would be this team, this year.

3. Minnesota Twins

The Twins only have three projected offensive starters under 27, and two of those are the unpredictable Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. Add in huge rotation question marks like Rich Hill and Michael Pineda, and there is a lot of fall-apart risk. I can easily make an argument (even if I don’t believe it) for the Twins to come in behind the White Sox and Indians. Royals and Tigers? That’s harder.

2. Atlanta Braves

The Braves have plenty of question marks — you can basically make the argument that the roster has only two sure things (Ronald Acuña Jr. and Freddie Freeman) with serious upside but plenty of risk throughout the rest of the roster. The problem in making an argument for the team to finish last is that so many of those parts would have to realize their risk, with so few realizing their upside. But a lack of sure things does make it possible, especially with the Nationals, Mets, and Phillies all at least competent. It’s tough to get the Braves to last, given the Marlins, but if you can get a team to fourth place in the conversation, fifth isn’t that big a leap.

1. St. Louis Cardinals

There is a definite scenario where the Cardinals bottom out — the team is kind of shockingly old, with serious cliff risk for Paul Goldschmidt and Matt Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. But while fourth place is definitely a believable outcome for the team (in fact it’s where I projected the Cardinals), it’s pretty hard to make the argument the Cardinals might come in behind the Pirates.

Second place to last

Second-place teams in 2019: Rays, Indians, Athletics, Nationals, Brewers, Diamondbacks

6. Tampa Bay Rays

I pegged the Rays to win the division in my season preview, a prediction I feel less strongly about now with an abbreviated season — the team’s biggest strength is its depth and flexibility, assets that matter less in a shorter season. Still, I can’t really see a path to the Rays being worse than second in the AL East.

5. Washington Nationals

Anthony Rendon’s departure matters. It potentially matters a lot. Still, the team has the best top three of a rotation in baseball and an offense anchored by Juan Soto and Trea Turner. There is a lot of risk on this roster, but it’s “third-, fourth-place risk,” not really “last.”

4. Milwaukee Brewers

If Christian Yelich doesn’t bounce back from his late-season injury in 2019, that’s enough all by itself to push the team down to fourth in a strong NL Central. From there, you would need several more pieces to tank to push the team below the Pirates.

3. Oakland Athletics

Khris Davis kind of fell apart last year. Marcus Semien had a career year, which is great, but having a career year can often lead to a down next season. The pitching staff has been a patchwork revelation for a generation now, but eventually “we’ll put it together and figure it out” stops working (right?). If the Rangers and Mariners are better than we expect, the A’s could fall.

2. Cleveland Indians

It’s very easy to argue for the Indians to come in behind the Twins and White Sox in the AL Central (you don’t have to believe it will happen, but it’s easy to make the argument). And if the team is already a contender to finish in third place and miss the playoffs, then all it would take is a real bad start to the season for the Indians to start sell-off mode. A Cleveland team with Francisco Lindor and Mike Clevinger and Jose Ramirez isn’t likely to finish in last. A Cleveland team that sells off those pieces by the quarter mark of an abbreviated season? There’s at least a path.

1. Arizona Diamondbacks

Like the Indians, the Diamondbacks could easily transition into sell mode with a poor start to the season. And with guys like Eduardo Escobar and Ketel Marte coming off surprise monster seasons, if they come back to earth in 2020 it wouldn’t take much more for the team to start bottoming out and selling off. That alone is path enough to make a fourth-place finish believable, and from there it’s just a question of whether the Giants can surprise and push them to last.