Be a year early: Fantasy players to sell on before the bottom drops out
In long-term (dynasty, keeper) fantasy football leagues, one of the key things to knowing when to build around a person, or when to expect to have him around for the long haul. But arguably more important is knowing when to bail. Bill Belichick is famous for being the kind of coach who gets out of a player a year early rather than a year later, and that needs to be the strategy in keeper leagues as well.
If you sold on Peyton Manning after his monster 2013 season, for example, when he passed for 5,477 yards and 55 touchdowns, you likely got a huge return. And sure, you missed out on his 2014, when he threw for 4,727 and 39. But then in 2015 he passed for 2,249 and 9, with 17 interceptions. That post-2013 window was the best chance you would have to capitalize, and it’s always better to get out when the value is still high.
Today, I’m offering up a short list of players to get out on now, before the value falls off.
Quarterback
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Allen has been a fantasy stud over his two seasons, rushing for 17 touchdowns in 28 games. What he has not been is a particularly good passer. His next game with even 270 passing yards will be his first such game, and he has a cumulative passer rating of 78.2 over his two years. The Bills gave him reinforcements a year ago by adding John Brown, Cole Beasley, Dawson Knox, and Tyler Kroft, and went a step further this offseason with Stefon Diggs. Basically, at this point, if Allen fails (and despite his prodigious arm strength he was one of the league’s worst deep-ball passers a year ago), it’s on him, and the Bills aren’t going to have a choice but to start considering whether he can be the long-term solution. And that means there’s a chance this offseason could be your last chance to get QB1 value for him.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
Ryan turned 35 Sunday. And while his yardage has stayed high (he’s tossed for 4,000-plus yards each of the last nine years), his touchdown production has yo-yo’d in recent years in an inverse rate to his interceptions. Sure, if that trend continues, he’d actually be set up for a monster 2020, but (a) that would mean a down 2021, and (b) players aren’t actually that predictable. Expect more of the lows and fewer of the highs for Ryan as he gets older.
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles
I might take issue with the Eagles adding Jalen Hurts in the draft where they did, but there are plenty who disagree with that, and regardless, what’s done is done. And while Wentz is the starter in Philadelphia when healthy for the next little while, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if his fantasy upside going forward is at least a little capped by the presence of Hurts on some plays. Wentz is getting drafted as a borderline QB1 right now (per Fantasy Football Calculator ADP), but if Hurts has an outsized impact, this could be the last such year.
Running back
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
The beauty of Elliott right now is that he should command a high price in trade. But after 77 receptions in 2018, he didn’t even have that many targets last year, down to 71, with only 54 receptions. That alone is a 23-point drop in fantasy production. Elliott made up for that by scoring 14 touchdowns last year (up from 9 in 2018 and his most since his rookie year). With CeeDee Lamb added to a prodigious receiver group that also includes Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, a worsening defense that should lead to more shootouts, and an offensive line that should be at its worst point in Elliott’s career, it’s more than possible we’ve seen the best fantasy production of his career.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
Henry hasn’t needed receiving production to be a fantasy factor — he has 57 receptions total in his four seasons, with a season-best of 18 (and 24 targets). When you can run for 1,540 yards and 16 touchdowns, who cares how you are as a receiver? But Henry is 26 now and on the franchise tag for 2020. Will he be on a different team in 2021, one that has a running back who catches passes? Or will wear and tear lead to more time on the sideline? In a vacuum, in a single year, a running back doesn’t have to be a receiver to be a fantasy factor. But over a several-year sample, either a guy starts to catch passes or he stops being as relevant.
Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars
Fournette came into the league as one of the highest-profile running backs in the draft in a long time. And there’s no way to describe what he’s done since than other than “be a disappointment.” He’s at 3.95 yards per carry over his three years (with 2019 his first time topping 4.0). He had 19 total touchdowns in three seasons. He had his career-high in scrimmage yards last year, at 1,674, but that led right into an offseason where his team is said to be looking to move on. You might still be able to capitalize on a Fournette sale this offseason, since the Jags have no one else to carry the ball, but this also might be the end of that particularly ability.
Wide receiver
Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons
Jones is 31 now. Only one player — Jerry Rice in 1995, with somehow 1,848 (!!!) yards — has topped 1,600 yards at 31 or older, and only 10 have topped 1,400. The number that have topped 1,400 at 32 drops to four, and once you get to 33 it’s only that Rice season. Jones is nowhere near washed up (he’s my WR3 for 2020), but as he gets older you have to start worrying that the age will catch up with him.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Evans was clearly the best offensive player on the Bucs for his first five seasons. Last year, it became a bit of a question mark as Chris Godwin came into his own. Now? Godwin is at worst in a dead heat with him, and he has a new quarterback who has made less of a recent career throwing the ball deep than Evans’ previous passer, and with Rob Gronkowski around, Evans might find himself capped. And even if that doesn’t happen, how long does Tom Brady have in Tampa? If we get to 2021, 2022, and Brady is out, and the Buccaneers have to start over at quarterback, you won’t get any kind of return on Evans then.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
Lockett turned 27 in September. It became his first season with:
More than 1,000 yards
More than 70 targets
More than 60 receptions
Guys who develop into WR1 types that late aren’t typically the types you’d expect to then have a long career atop the position, especially with the physical marvel D.K. Metcalf also in his offense, approximately 403 tight ends on the roster with pass-catching ability, and a head coach who appears to believe throwing passes is how you spread coronavirus. Lockett’s never going to carry a massive fantasy ceiling, but he has the reputation of a guy who does.
Tight end
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles
Ertz is (somewhat surprisingly, I bet) pushing 30 (his birthday is in November) and entering his eighth season. Last year, he saw drops from 2018 in targets, receptions, yards, touchdowns, yards per target (to a career-low 6.8), and PPR points per game (dropping by more than 3.0 per game). None of that means he’s shot by any means — Ertz is still an upper-tier tight end. But much of his production in 2018 was based on volume, and as Dallas Goedert develops and the Eagles finally add some young blood at receiver, that volume might start to dry up. Are we a year or two away from Goedert supplanting Ertz as the team’s TE1? Maybe.