The worst-to-first and the first-to-worst in 2020 NFL

An NFL team making the playoffs after missing them the year before isn’t anything special. A team missing the playoffs after making them the year before isn’t, either. But rising from, or falling to, last place (and similarly, rising to, or falling from, first place) is more remarkable. There are cycles — good stretches and bad stretches typically last for more than a season or two, and switches tend to be more gradual.

But there are teams that make the big jump (or fall) every year. Assuming we have a 2020 season, there will be some this year too. So today I’m trying to make my picks: Which teams are the most likely to go from worst to first or from first to worst in 2020? I’ll run through all the candidates, least likely to most likely.

Worst to first

Last-place teams in 2019: Dolphins, Bengals, Jaguars, Chargers, Washington, Lions, Panthers, Cardinals

8. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are bottoming out in some ways (picking apart the offensive line, new coaching staff, young defense) while bolstering in others (signing Teddy Bridgewater, signing Robby Anderson, extending Christian McCaffrey). Ultimately, though, while the good pieces could work out better than the bad pieces fail them, the NFC South has two of the league’s best teams in the Saints and Buccaneers, and that should make it nearly impossible for Carolina to make the leap to first place.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have an advantage that the Panthers don’t have, in that the AFC South does not have nearly the dominant teams that the NFC South does. On the other hand, the Jaguars might be the worst team in the league for 2020, with eyes apparently pointed toward 2021. For the Jags to rise to first place in the AFC South, the other three teams in the division would all have to flounder, and Gardner Minshew would have to be better than we expect him to be. It’s just hard to picture.

6. Washington

Like the Jaguars, Washington has the advantage of being in a division without elite teams, but also like the Jaguars, Washington has the disadvantage of, you know, a real bad roster. There are enough pieces in Washington — especially on the defense — that the team could be a surprise in Year 2 of the Dwayne Haskins era, but there’s a big gap between “surprise” and “division champ.”

5. Los Angeles Chargers

If this exercise were just “most likely last-place team to be good in 2020,” the chargers would probably win in a runaway. The team has plenty of pieces to be excellent this year, with what could be a truly elite defense, an improving set of offensive weapons, and quarterbacks in Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert who at least might not be disastrous. But this is “most likely last-place team to finish in first.” And while it wouldn’t be a surprise at all for the Chargers to be good in 2020 (in fact I expect it), it’s very hard to imagine them overtaking the Chiefs in the AFC West.

4. Cincinnati Bengals

The Steelers and Browns should both be at least decent if not outright good in 2020, though both teams have question marks. The Ravens should definitely be very good again, but one Lamar Jackson injury would throw all of that into question. The Bengals? The team could very easily still be bad, especially on defense, but if Joe Burrow comes in and plays in the NFL like he did in college last year, with a very impressive group of weapons as well, and it wouldn’t be insane if the team is actually decent this year.

3. Detroit Lions

The Lions could be pretty bad in 2020, but if Matthew Stafford can come out like he started last year before getting injured, if Jeffrey Okudah can be a star cornerback from the very start of his career, and if the Packers/Vikings both take steps back that are certainly within the realm of possibility for the teams, the Lions could take a jump. This would be a “9-7, losing in the first round” sort of first place, but it isn’t crazy to conceive.

2. Arizona Cardinals

Put the Cardinals in the AFC South or the AFC East or one of the other weaker divisions and they might be at the top of this list. But having to overtake the 49ers and Seahawks (and the Rams, for that matter) is a tough ask. Still, the Cardinals are putting things together in an interesting way, adding DeAndre Hopkins to what was already promising to be an improving offense and Isaiah Simmons to what is … well, still a bad defense, but hey, who knows.

1. Miami Dolphins

This was the consensus worst team in the league entering last season, but there are some massive year-over-year differences in the team. And at that, the team still won 5 games last year, with Brian Flores looking strong as a first-year head coach. Add in the interesting Ryan Fitzpatrick and/or the rookie Tua Tagovailoa, the signing of Byron Jones, and (most importantly) the chance no one else in the AFC East is that good, the Dolphins could definitely make the leap.

First to worst

First-place teams in 2019: Patriots, Ravens, Texans, Chiefs, Eagles, Packers, Saints, 49ers

8. Kansas City Chiefs

The reigning Super Bowl champions should be an excellent team again in 2020. Is there a scenario where the Chiefs struggle and don’t finish in first? Considering the likely strengths of the Chargers and Broncos, there is absolutely a possible outcome of a non-first-place Chiefs team, albeit an unlikely one. But last place? Even if Patrick Mahomes were to get hurt, could the Chiefs slide below the Raiders (in addition to the other two teams)? That’s hard to picture.

7. New Orleans Saints

What is the Saints’ weak spot? Defensive interior, maybe. Other than that, maybe you frame some kind of scenario where Drew Brees falls apart, but even then the team has Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill to pick up the slack. The only reason the Chiefs are slightly more likely to drop to last than the Chiefs is the fact that the Buccaneers should be pretty good and the Falcons are at least interesting. But I struggle a lot to draw up a scenario where the Saints are worse than the Panthers.

6. Baltimore Ravens

The problem the Ravens have that the Saints and Chiefs don’t (as much) is that so much of their success was tied to a single player last year. Lamar Jackson was a deserving MVP, but if something were to happen to him, and Robert Griffin III had to take over as the starter … well, I still don’t think the Ravens would fall to last, but it’s a more plausible scenario at that point.

5. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are a very flawed team, but still almost certainly a good one. That said, it wouldn’t be a big surprise if the Eagles struggled in 2020 … somewhat. The Eagles could absolutely slide behind the Cowboys (that might even be likely). But could the team become worse than both the Giants and Washington? I genuinely can’t envision a scenario where Philadelphia falls that far.

4. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers plying their trade in arguably the league’s best division makes for a slightly tougher road. Russell Wilson remains one of the best players in the game, the Cardinals (as mentioned above) are increasingly interesting, and while the Rams look like they’re on the way down, there are still enough pieces with Sean McVay in charge to be plausible contenders. The 49ers still enter the season as clear divisional favorites, but if Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t up to the task, there is a path for the 49ers to bottom out.

3. Green Bay Packers

I will probably have the Packers as my NFC North favorites when the season rolls around, though I’m not sure of that. There is no great team in this division, but also likely no terrible one. I can see a way to one of Minnesota, Detroit, and Chicago jumping the Packers, maybe even two. Could all three climb over Green Bay? I guess it’s possible, but even if the Packers’ 13-3 record in 2019 was a mirage, the team was still good.

2. Houston Texans

Letting DeAndre Hopkins go in favor of David Johnson, building a receiver room out of a cast of brittle bones and half-hamstrings, deciding that “first-round picks” are an unnecessary luxury … the Houston strategy (such as it is) has been tough to decipher. The team finished first in 2019, but it’s already easy to envision the team finishing behind the Colts and Titans this season. And then just bang up Deshaun Watson a bit, give the Jags a little bit of luck, and a last-place Texans team is not that hard to envision.

1. New England Patriots

This feels boring, but it’s definitely the right choice. No one would be that surprised if the Patriots finished first or were good again, given the defensive pieces and, you know, the whole Bill Belichickness of it all. But the defense is definitely going to be worse than it was a year ago, the offensive line is likely to take a step back with Dante Scarnecchia’s retirement, and then, of course, Jarrett Stidham or Brian Hoyer is the quarterback. The Patriots will probably be better than the Jets and/or the Dolphins, but it’s far from a sure thing. New England could be in the conversation for a high draft pick in 2021, and the Patriots are easily the first-place team from 2019 most likely to finish last in 2021.