The most consistent fantasy options

One of the things you want to nail in fantasy football is the surprises, the players who exceed expectations. But predictability is also a nice virtue as well. The simple truth is you aren’t going to crush every breakout candidate you draft. Some players just need to be who they are.

Today, I’m looking at the players who were the most consistent year-over-year from 2018 to 2019. There were 14 players who played at least 10 games in each year, put up a PPR points-per-game total within 4% in either direction, and could be considered fantasy relevant (I don’t care, for example, that Patrick DiMarco put up 0.63 PPG in 2018 and then 0.61 in 2019). Some of them were largely the same guy from one year to the next; some got there in a very different way. Below is each player, how he put together his totals, and what we can learn from that for 2020.

Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

2018 PPG: 19.03
2019 PPG: 18.31
Difference: -3.8%

Wentz played only 11 games in 2018 before a full 16 in 2019. His group of wide receivers wasn’t great either year, and he was picking through scraps by the end of last year. But his tight end group was as good as any in the year, and that keeps him as a borderline QB1 every year. If you believe Wentz can stay healthy in 2020, drafting him near the back of the starting QBs is still reasonable.

Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

2018 PPG: 11.14
2019 PPG: 10.75
Difference: -3.5%

The fact that Williams was essentially the same player from a fantasy perspective in 2018 and 2019 is kind of hilarious — his 2018 featured 664 yards and a whopping 11 touchdowns, while his 2019 had 1,001 yards but only a pair of scores. But the end total was basically the same. Williams had 10 receiving scores (1 rushing) on 66 targets in 2018, then scored his 2 on 90 targets last year. You’d have to expect those numbers to find a happy medium in 2020, pending his quarterback situation. But assuming his yardage stays high, that’s ultimately good news.

Jared Cook, TE, New Orleans Saints

2018 PPG: 12.10
2019 PPG: 11.96
Difference: -1.1%

Cook got off to a really fast start in 2018, the No. 1 fantasy tight end over the season’s first two weeks. He moved to New Orleans last offseason, and things couldn’t have started much slower for him as a Saint — through four weeks, he had 8 catches for 90 scoreless yards, and things looked to be heading in the wrong direction. But it turned around when Drew Brees returned from injury, and Cook finished strong, the No. 7 TE for the season but the No. 2 from Week 10 on. Assuming Brees is back for 2020, Cook is a solid starting tight end.

George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers

2018 PPG: 16.04
2019 PPG: 15.89
Difference: -0.9%

What’s there to say about Kittle? He’s great. You could argue he’s the No. 1 tight end, and you can’t reasonably argue he’s much worse than No. 2. Draft and enjoy.

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2018 PPG: 17.90
2019 PPG: 17.75
Difference: -0.9%

Evans missing three games and the fact that Chris Godwin had such a breakout masks just how good the veteran’s season was — he was the No. 4 fantasy receiver through Week 14 before missing the rest of the year. We need to see who his quarterback for 2020 will be, but he’s now had six straight top-24 fantasy seasons to start his career. Only Jerry Rice, Gary Clark, and Keyshawn Johnson have beaten that. No matter who is throwing the ball, Evans is a fantasy starter.

Curtis Samuel, WR, Carolina Panthers

2018 PPG: 10.68
2019 PPG: 10.73
Difference: +0.5%

See? All of us who were on the Samuel breakout train last offseason were proven correct, as he improved his fantasy output by … 0.05 points per game. Samuel saw 40 more targets in 2019 than 2018, but scored the exact same number of touchdowns each year, and his yardage improvement is largely explained by the fact that he played all 16 games instead of 13. But Carolina’s QB struggles were what really defined his season, and assuming the team has a competent signal-caller for 2020, Samuel’s outlook is rosy. In other words, I’m still on the train.

Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

2018 PPG: 16.26
2019 PPG: 16.34
Difference: +0.5%

You want consistency? Allen went from 106 touches, 1,196 receiving yards, and 6 touchdowns in 2018 to 107, 1,199, and 6 in 2019. It’s hard to be much more consistent than that at a high performance level. Like Williams above, we’ll need to see who his quarterback is next season, but the most important thing for Allen is that he’s now played all 16 games in each of the last three seasons after missing 23 combined the two years before. He’s changed that reputation.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals

2018 PPG: 11.15
2019 PPG: 11.21
Difference: +0.6%

It probably isn’t great for Fitzgerald that his team got a new, offensive-minded head coach and a new electric quarterback for 2019 and he still put up essentially the same fantasy totals as he did in the miserable 2018 season, but then he’s 36 and still performing at a fantasy-relevant level, so who are we to complain? He’s not a sure starter in 2020, but he’ll have weeks, and he’ll be valuable roster depth.

Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

2018 PPG: 16.86
2019 PPG: 16.99
Difference: +0.8%

Dalton won’t be a Bengal next year. Will he be a starting quarterback somewhere? Who knows. There are Bears rumors. The Chargers need a quarterback. So do the Buccaneers. So do … a lot of teams. If he’s a starter, he’ll be a borderline starter in two-QB leagues, but he’ll carry some weekly upside.

Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

2018 PPG: 20.59
2019 PPG: 20.80
Difference: +1.0%

This feels wrong, after Brees spent most of 2018 as an MVP candidate and was only the No. 24 fantasy QB in 2019. But then he missed five games last year, and his MVP candidacy sank in 2018 after his numbers plummeted down the stretch. In other words, he took very different paths to basically the same season. But it’s still Drew Brees. If he’s around next year, and he’s still a Saint, he’s a fantasy star.

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

2018 PPG: 18.51
2019 PPG: 18.73
Difference: +1.2%

Allen ran the ball at a ridiculous rate down the stretch of his rookie 2018, with 90-plus rushing yards in four of his last six games and eight rushing touchdowns in total. He never had a game with even 60 rushing yards in 2019, but he still had an eye for the end zone, scoring nine times. He’s a better fantasy quarterback than a real one, but then we care about fantasy here.

Anthony Miller, WR, Chicago Bears

2018 PPG: 7.99
2019 PPG: 8.09
Difference: +1.3%

Like Mike Williams above, Miller took a very different path to his fantasy totals from year to year. He scored 7 times on 54 targets as a rookie, but had only 423 yards. Last year, he only scored twice on 85 targets, but upped his yardage to 656. If he can combine some of his 2019 yardage with his scoring of 2018, he’ll be a bona fide fantasy name. And maybe a better quarterback — if he gets one — can help him get there.

Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans

2018 PPG: 21.66
2019 PPG: 22.15
Difference: +2.2%

Watson’s a stud. Topping 20 PPG in consecutive seasons is really all the proof you need of that. Draft him as a sure starter and enjoy.

LeSean McCoy, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

2018 PPG: 9.09
2019 PPG: 9.43
Difference: +3.8%

I almost didn’t even include McCoy as a fantasy-relevant name, as he was only barely one last year and didn’t even see the field in the playoffs. And despite that, he actually improved his per-game performance from 2018. Translation? Don’t expect a McCoy bounceback in 2020.