Fantasy football non-bounceback candidates for 2020

Friday, I broke down some players whose fantasy football stocks slipped in 2019 and I expect them to be able to rebound in 2020. The nice thing about players who fit that description is that they can be had at a discount, and if you can get them later in the draft it can make a season.

The flip side is that you can really make your season a struggle if you’re wrong. Grabbing bounceback candidates at a discount in the eighth, 10th, 15th round is great if it pays off, and while it isn’t a tragedy on the scale of a busted first-rounder if you’re wrong … well, you don’t want to have to scramble right away.

So today, I’m looking at players who slipped in 2019 who aren’t as likely to rebound in 2020, the non-bouncebacks you should avoid.

(All PPR point totals from Pro Football Reference; PPG ranks based on minimum of six games played.)

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

2018: 19.54 PPG, QB10
2019: 17.40 PPG, QB13

“I ain’t as good as I once was. But I’m as good once as I ever was.”

At his peak, Rodgers is still one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in the game. To wit, he had the single biggest fantasy game for a quarterback all season in 2019, after having the second-biggest single fantasy game for a quarterback all season in 2018. The problem is, other than those two games, Rodgers has not had one of either season’s 40 best fantasy days. Rodgers has the ceiling. But he no longer has anything like the consistency he once offered in fantasy. And the bad days will pull the good ones down.

Tom Brady, QB, New England patriots

2018: 17.58 PPG, QB18
2019: 16.48 PPG, QB16

Brady actually improved his PPG rank among quarterbacks from 2018 to 2019, but his fantasy per-game average dropped more than a point. But it’s another point off his 2017 average, five points off his 2016. Things have been dropping. He doesn’t have Rob Gronkowski anymore. He doesn’t have a lot of his weapons anymore. He just put up his lowest passer rating since 2013, second-lowest since 2006. He’s 43 in August (you might have heard). And his offensive line coach — the best one in football — just (re-)retired. Bad times in Old Man Land.

Le’Veon Bell, RB, New York Jets

2017: 22.77 PPG, RB2
2019: 14.33 PPG, RB18

Bell disappointing in his first year in New York was one of the most predictable pieces of the 2019 season. But the extent of his struggles might have been. Bell averaged a career-low 3.2 yards per attempt, barely 50 rushing yards a game, and didn’t even rush for 90 yards in a game all year. What is going to get better for him in 2020? He turns 28 in less than a week. Adam Gase will still be his head coach. Don’t count on a rebound.

David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals

2018: 15.41 PPG, RB11
2019: 10.88 PPG, RB29

I wrote on this very website earlier this week (synergy!) that I’d like to see the Buccaneers bring Johnson in this offseason. But that isn’t because he’d be a sure thing there; it’s because it’s the place he could be the least-unsure thing. Johnson started the 2019 season productively from a fantasy perspective, but even when he was putting up fantasy numbers, his raw football efficiency left much to be desired. He’s not going on four years removed from his last big season, and while you can make excuses for each one (injury in 2017, awful coaching in 2018, arrival of Kenyan Drake in 2019), at some point the excuses just become who you are.

Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons

2018: 14.30 PPG, RB12
2019: 14.11 PPG, RB19

Freeman might not even be back with the Falcons next year. The team is over the cap and has plenty of needs, and Freeman would be a pretty logical casualty to clear space. He’s 28 next month, coming off back-to-back seasons of significant injury and a career-worst yards per carry, and there aren’t a lot of logical landing spots.

Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings

2018: 19.21 PPG, WR7
2019: 11.44 PPG, WR42

Because he was 24 entering the league and still took a couple years to establish himself as a factor, Thielen has the reputation of a younger receiver still coming into his own. Instead, he turns 30 in August. He’s never had a season with double-digit touchdowns and he barely averaged 40 yards a game last year. Stefon Diggs is the No. 1 receiver in this offense. Don’t expect Thielen to rise back to WR1 status.

Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

2018: 17.52 PPG, TE2
2019: 14.37 PPG, TE4

Obviously, Ertz didn’t slip much last year, still finishing near the top of the position. But he fell from his upper-echelon status, turning the Big 3 of Ertz, George Kittle, and Travis Kelce into a Big 2, and the rise of Dallas Goedert wasn’t a fluke. Ertz is an easy starting tight end, but he’s not at the elite of the position.

Eric Ebron, TE, Indianapolis Colts

2018: 13.89 PPG, TE4
2019: 7.86 PPG, TE18

We already know Ebron won’t be back in Indianapolis next year. Where he will be is up in the air. But this is a guy who put up nearly half of his career touchdown total (14 of 29) in 2018 alone, one of the most obviously unsustainable success rates we’ve ever seen. Even if Ebron is better in 2020 than he was in 2019, he’s never going to be the guy he was in 2018 again.