The biggest fantasy risers over the second half of 2019

There are two key ways for a player to leave a lasting memory among fantasy football managers. The first is to start strong. The second is to finish strong. Obviously, the best players do both, which is why, for example, Christian McCaffrey averaged 29.54 PPR points per game in Weeks 1-8 and 29.95 in Weeks 9-16.

But some players made their bones far more in one half of the season than the other. A guy who has three huge games to start the season and then trails off will be remembered fondly because people have clear recollection of looking at the leaderboards and seeing their name near the top. A player who has three huge games to end the season after scuffling most of the year will be remembered fondly because that happened in the fantasy playoffs. Meanwhile, a player who has three equally huge games, but spaces them out in Weeks 2, 8, and 13 is just a guy. Maybe the people who rostered them look back kindly, but in general, those guys get lost to the shuffle.

Honestly though, that’s what should happen. When a player lumps his most productive games in a quasi-strategic manner, it artificially colors our interpretation. So today, I’m looking at players who did that late in the season. These are the players who played at least four games in each half of the season (Weeks 1-8 and Weeks 9-16, leaving out the often-unreliable Week 17) and saw their PPR per-game average rise by the most from the first half to the second. Sometimes we can believe in the changes. Sometimes we can’t.

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans

Weeks 1-8: 11.2 PPG
Weeks 9-16: 24.5 PPG
Difference: +13.3

Tannehill’s four games in the first half included Week 1 against Cleveland — when he was only in for two kneeldowns and so put up all of -0.2 points — and Week 6 against Denver, when he replaced Marcus Mariota late in the game and barely had time to accumulate production. So this isn’t a fair comparison. Tannehill produced at least two touchdowns in every one of his starts, and while he’s not likely to be the top-tier fantasy QB he was down the stretch, assuming he’s a starter in 2020, you can believe more in the second half than the first.

Breshad Perriman, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Weeks 1-8: 1.2 PPG
Weeks 9-16: 13.5 PPG
Difference: +12.3

Perriman timed his surge perfectly, heading into free agency as one of the top-producing receivers down the stretch. Sure, it came in large part because first Mike Evans and then Chris Godwin got hurt, but it might have been enough to secure him a relevant role in 2020, and that will make him worth a look.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Miami Dolphins

Weeks 1-8: 10.0 PPG
Weeks 9-16: 21.0 PPG
Difference: +11.0

Take Fitzpatrick’s first half down to just his starts and his per-game average rises, but even then it was only 11.8. In Weeks 9-16, Fitzpatrick was fantasy’s QB5, topping names like Dak Prescott and Drew Brees. As it stands now, it looks like Fitzpatrick will be back in Miami next year but the team will also draft Tua Tagovailoa, which means he won’t start every game but the Curse of Fitz will injure Tua and he’ll get some play. (I hope that’s somehow wrong.)

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Kenyan Drake, RB, Miami Dolphins/Arizona Cardinals

Weeks 1-8: 9.5 PPG
Weeks 9-16: 19.9 PPG
Difference: +10.4

This exercise works nicely for Drake, because it divides Drake’s season into Miami and Arizona chunks, and it displays well what moving to a functional offense and getting a starring role can do. We don’t know where Drake will be in 2020 (probably Arizona?) or where David Johnson will be (probably not Arizona?), but if Drake has a featured role on anything like a decent offense, he’ll be fantasy-relevant.

Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans

Weeks 1-8: 14.4 PPG
Weeks 9-16: 24.4 PPG
Difference: +10.0

In this same exercise a year ago, Henry saw his fantasy numbers rise from one half to the other by 11.3 PPG. He’s been a second-half star for a while now. You’ve got to think he’ll get the full season to produce in 2020. He’s an easy RB1.

James Washington, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Weeks 1-8: 4.4 PPG
Weeks 9-16: 13.7 PPG
Difference: +9.3

At the start of the season, Washington was behind JuJu Smith-Schuster, Donte Moncrief, and arguably Diontae Johnson on the depth chart. By the second half, Moncrief was (long) gone, Smith-Schuster couldn’t stay healthy, and Washington and Johnson were 1A and 1B in some order. After a massively disappointing rookie year in 2018, Washington showed enough down the stretch in 2019 to warrant attention in 2020.

Jared Cook, TE, New Orleans Saints

Weeks 1-8: 7.3 PPG
Weeks 9-16: 15.9 PPG
Difference: +8.6

Cook started out really slow as a Saint, accentuated by Drew Brees’ absence. Once he had worked his way into the offense and Brees was back, he was more than fine. Assuming Brees is back next year, Cook’s still a TE1.

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Melvin Gordon, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

Weeks 1-8: 9.5 PPG
Weeks 9-16: 17.8 PPG
Difference: +8.3

Like Tannehill, PPG average does Gordon a disservice, as he missed Weeks 1-4 and then was worked back in slowly in Weeks 5-7. Even in his better second half, though, Gordon was producing at lower than his 2018 average. We can’t handicap his 2020 until we see where he’s playing.

Tyler Higbee, TE, Los Angeles Rams

Weeks 1-8: 5.9 PPG
Weeks 9-16: 13.9 PPG
Difference: +8.0

Higbee’s bank account owes a fruit basket or something to Gerald Everett. He was stuck behind Everett on the depth chart for most of the year, and Everett was performing just fine, but when Everett got hurt late in the year, Higbee came on strong and was one of the top tight ends down the stretch. He already had a big contract with the Rams, but that stretch alone likely means he’ll be a feature next year.

Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

Weeks 1-8: 10.7 PPG
Weeks 9-16: 18.6 PPG
Difference: +7.9

Ertz averaged 8.0 targets per game in Weeks 1-8. He averaged 10.1 in Weeks 9-16. That’s not a huge increase, but it’s definitely an increase, with five games of double-digit targets out of seven in the second half, after one in eight in the first half. The Eagles’ injuries at wide receiver forced Ertz and Dallas Goedert to be the top receiving options in the offense. And topping it off, Ertz scored one touchdown in 64 targets through Week 8, the five on 71 in Weeks 9-16. He’s a step below Travis Kelce and George Kittle among tight ends, but not a big step.

(Wednesday: The biggest fantasy fallers from the first half to the second.)