The gamble: How long will you bet on the fantasy starter WRs?

If you read Saturday’s piece, you saw there were no running backs, not even Christian McCaffrey, I’d be willing to commit to in fantasy for more than five years from this moment. Even five years feels like a stretch at one of the diciest position.

Today, though, the exercise reaches wide receiver, and while I’m not about to give receivers 10, 12, 14 years, there is definitely more to trust at the receiver position than there is at running back.

The exercise: Starting right now, you can keep a player on your roster indefinitely with no draft penalty. But you have to commit to the number of years right now. No dropping him early if he falls off; no extending the status if he’s still good when your bet runs out. So how many years are you comfortable giving a guy?

The exercise imagines a fairly normal 12-team PPR league, meaning two starting receivers and a flex. In other words, there are roughly 30 starting wide receivers, though there’s really no value in keeping a guy at WR30 value. So this exercise wants some reliability, but also a reasonable ceiling.

(Check on the quarterback and running back versions of this piece.)

Eight years

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Age at Week 1: 24; 2019 fantasy finish: WR2)
D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers (Age at Week 1: 23; 2019 fantasy finish: WR16)

I bet these two names getting my longest commitments come as a bit of a surprise. It’s definitely partly age (among last year’s top 20 fantasy receivers, these were two of only four, along with Courtland Sutton and D.J. Chark, who won’t yet be 25 when next season starts). But there is also plenty of reason to trust these two, and even if 2020 might be underwhelming depending on their respective quarterback situations, the long-term outlook for both receivers is huge. Godwin obviously has more ceiling, but Moore has an incredibly high floor, and if he can get a good quarterback throwing him the ball (a healthy Cam Newton or someone else), I wouldn’t scoff at his ceiling either.

Seven years

Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints (Age at Week 1: 27; 2019 fantasy finish: WR1)
Jerry Jeudy (Age at Week 1: 21)

These two are on the opposite ends of the spectrum. Thomas has been incredible, record-breaking, but he would be 34 at the end of this bet, and there is always the chance he won’t fare as well as he has once Drew Brees is out of the picture. It’s a small risk — I’m still giving him seven years, obviously — but it’s one we have to acknowledge. … Meanwhile, I’m on record as being in the tank for Jeudy, the best chance this year’s draft class has at a superstar receiver right out of the gate.

Six years

DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans (Age at Week 1: 28; 2019 fantasy finish: WR5)
A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans (Age at Week 1: 23; 2019 fantasy finish: WR21)
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers (Age at Week 1: 27; 2019 fantasy finish: WR22)

There are two classes of player in this range. The first class is composed of Hopkins and Adams, two of the game’s top handful of receivers who will be comfortably into their 30s by the time this commitment runs out. Hopkins is slightly older than Adams, but then Adams’ quarterback is much older than Hopkins’. … The other name here is Brown, a 2019 rookie who came on strong down the stretch. The ambiguity in Brown’s future has to cost him a little here; we don’t even know who his quarterback will be in 2020, let alone six years down the road. We don’t know who his No. 2 receiver will be, who his running back will be, who his tight end will be. It’s just hard to know what to expect.

Five years

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos (Age at Week 1: 24; 2019 fantasy finish: WR19)
Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns (Age at Week 1: 27; 2019 fantasy finish: WR25)
Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons (Age at Week 1: 25; 2019 fantasy finish: WR27)
D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks (Age at Week 1: 22; 2019 fantasy finish: WR33)
Ceedee Lamb (Age at Week 1: 21)

Sutton was my pick for No. 1 receiver in his 2018 rookie class, and not much has happened since to send me far off of that (other than D.J. Moore, but you get the picture). He was a top-20 fantasy receiver last year with essentially a disaster situation at quarterback; give him any support at all and his ceiling is massive. … I’ll know early on whether this bet on Beckham is misguided; if he bounces back in 2020 I expect he’ll be fine long term, but if 2020 is a wash then this could be an awful investment. … Ridley has been WR22 and WR27 in his two years, with 17 combined touchdowns, despite running behind Julio Jones and having Austin Hooper to contend with. Hooper is essentially gone now, and Jones’ shelf life is getting shorter. … Metcalf showed near the end of last year the kind of massive ceiling he can offer, and I think we’ll see more of it. … Lamb is just a peg behind Jerry Jeudy in this year’s rookie class, but it’s enough for me to be less willing to commit to him.

Four years

Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers (Age at Week 1: 28; 2019 fantasy finish: WR6)
Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions (Age at Week 1: 26; 2019 fantasy finish: WR9)
Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys (Age at Week 1: 26; 2019 fantasy finish: WR10)
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Age at Week 1: 27; 2019 fantasy finish: WR15)

So Golladay is the only receiver here whose 2020 quarterback we know with even reasonable certainty (and there have been murmurs that Matthew Stafford might not be his quarterback either, even if that feels unlikely). That’s nice stability there for a guy who really came into his own last year. … Allen has been a star for the Chargers, but Philip Rivers has been the only quarterback he’s ever known. How will he fare with whoever the replacement is? … Cooper could have a different quarterback and/or a different team in 2020, or he could have everything exactly the same as it was in 2019. This is just a talent pick. … Evans is entering his seventh season in the league, has at least 1,000 yards and a WR2-or-better finish in every season he’s played, and he’s still only 27. Four years might be selling him short, though we’ll probably need to see how he does with a different quarterback.

Three years

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams (Age at Week 1: 27; 2019 fantasy finish: WR4)
Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns (Age at Week 1: 27; 2019 fantasy finish: WR12)
Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys (Age at Week 1: 24; 2019 fantasy finish: WR29)
Terry McLaurin, Washington (Age at Week 1: 24; 2019 fantasy finish: WR29)
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers (Age at Week 1: 24; 2019 fantasy finish: WR31)
Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals (Age at Week 1: 23; 2019 fantasy finish: WR38)

So there’s a mishmash here. We have Kupp, who is older than you probably realize but has a massive ceiling. … We have Landry, who is seven months older than Kupp but has played in the league twice as long. He lacks the massive ceiling we want out of guys in this exercise, which is why he only gets four years, but if this were simply a bet on someone finishing in the top-30 with no concern for ceiling, I could see betting twice as long on him. … We have Gallup, who has a huge ceiling if he still has Dak Prescott throwing him the ball and/or Amari Cooper commanding the opponent’s top defender, but neither of those is a sure thing. … We have McLaurin, who was a monster last year with an awful quarterback situation, but then we have no idea when and if that situation might improve. … We have Samuel, who didn’t have massive weeks last year, but really became the No. 1 down the stretch and should be freed of Emmanuel Sanders next year. … And we have Kirk, who overtook Larry Fitzgerald for No. 1 status last year, and now gets a second year with an offensive-minded coach and quarterback.

Two years

Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons (Age at Week 1: 31; 2019 fantasy finish: WR3)
Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears (Age at Week 1: 27; 2019 fantasy finish: WR8)
DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins (Age at Week 1: 27; 2019 fantasy finish: WR11)
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks (Age at Week 1: 27; 2019 fantasy finish: WR13)
D.J. Chark, Jacksonville Jaguars (Age at Week 1: 23; 2019 fantasy finish: WR17)
Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs (Age at Week 1: 26; 2019 fantasy finish: WR32)
Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers (Age at Week 1: 24; 2019 fantasy finish: WR36)
Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers (Age at Week 1: 25; 2019 fantasy finish: WR41)
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers (Age at Week 1: 23; 2019 fantasy finish: WR65)
Tee Higgins (Age at Week 1: 21)

So …

Jones is older than I’m comfortable committing to for any longer than the two years here. That said, I could easily see myself regretting shortchanging him.

Robinson, Parker, Chark, Samuel, and Williams have lacked enough of a track record and have enough unpredictability in their situation for me to trust them long-term. Tell me they’ll have a reliable quarterback situation and I might bet longer, but even then it’s been an inconsistently productive crew.

Lockett, Hill, and Smith-Schuster could easily be six- or seven-year options if things go right, but I have concerns about each (Smith-Schuster’s awful 2019, Lockett’s lack of ceiling, Hill’s off-field issues, which might or might not be a fair concern).

And that leaves Higgins, the other noteworthy 2020 rookie. I expect him to be productive right away, but I don’t expect a huge ceiling. It’s possible he grows into more of a ceiling, but I don’t feel comfortable enough with that to bet any longer than this.

One year

Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams (Age at Week 1: 28; 2019 fantasy finish: WR14)
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals (Age at Week 1: 25; 2019 fantasy finish: WR18)
John Brown, Buffalo Bills (Age at Week 1: 30; 2019 fantasy finish: WR20)
Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings (Age at Week 1: 26; 2019 fantasy finish: WR24)

Woods took long enough to burst onto the scene that he’s older than he feels like, and late bloomers can struggle to keep it going. … Boyd looks like he’ll cap out at a WR2 without much upside above that, and the downside risk of failure in Cincinnati and/or A.J. Green or someone else rising above him makes him a dicey promise. … Brown was really good in his first year in Buffalo, but he turns 30 next month and that’s enough reason to shy away from him long-term. … There are already rumors that Diggs is done in Minnesota. He’s tough to trust, even with the chances he beats this projection.

Zero years

Julian Edelman, New England Patriots (Age at Week 1: 34; 2019 fantasy finish: WR7)
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts (Age at Week 1: 30; 2019 fantasy finish: WR57)
Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings (Age at Week 1: 30; 2019 fantasy finish: WR64)

Edelman’s too old to bet on for even one year, especially given the questions around his quarterback situation. … If Hilton pairs well with Philip Rivers or whoever his new quarterback is, this will be an awful guess. But he’s 30 and I don’t want to tie myself to his uncertainty. … Thielen, like Woods above, developed late, and between injuries and him turning 30 in August, you’d be better off trying to sell, or at least trying to get out of the Thielen business one way or another.