The gamble: How long will you bet on the fantasy starter TEs?

On the one hand, tight ends tend to be good at an older age than their counterparts at the other skill positions, and that age thing filters down to fantasy football as well.

On the other, a good chunk of that older success is offset by the fact that tight ends predominantly develop later as well. So in a sense, it’s not so much that the aging curve is longer as it is that the aging curve is just further to the right on the timeline.

And remaining on that other hand, we’ve had a changing of the guard at the tight end position in recent years. It was easy enough a few years ago to pencil some combination of Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, Martellus Bennett, Vernon Davis, and so many other year-in, year-out producers that the position was somewhat monotonous.

Today? Gronkowski, Gates, Gonzalez, Bennett, and Davis are gone. Graham might be as well. Witten looks likely to play again in 2020 (and to be fair, he finished 2019 as a TE1), but he’s hardly someone you want to build around in fantasy.

What I’m saying in all of that is, projecting how many years to invest in a tight end in fantasy is a tough ask right now. For those new to this series (check out the quarterback, running back, and wide receiver pieces), it’s a fantasy exercise that asks a simple question: You can roster a player in fantasy for however many years into the future you want, but you have to commit right now. You can’t bail early if the investment goes bad. You can’t extend if he’s still great. So, right now, how long are you willing to bet?

Today, I’m looking at the commitments I’d be willing to make at the tight end position. This imagines a 12-team PPR league, which means you’re starting one tight end and a flex, meaning you can start a second tight end, but come on, who does that?

Six years

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers (Age at Week 1: 26; 2019 fantasy finish: TE2)

Is there a safer investment anywhere right now? By points per game, Kittle was within thousandths of Travis Kelce last year, and he’s four years younger. This bet would carry him through his age-32 season. That makes it a nice hedge between losing out on his elite seasons right now and the risk of him still being elite when the bet runs out. If you put more years down on Kittle, I wouldn’t even blink.

Five years

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles (Age at Week 1: 25; 2019 fantasy finish: TE10)
Noah Fant, Denver Broncos (Age at Week 1: 22; 2019 fantasy finish: TE16)
T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions (Age at Week 1: 23; 2019 fantasy finish: TE31)

Surprising group of names? Perhaps. But last year’s two big-name rookies (Fant especially) had their flashes last year, even if the full year wasn’t dominant. For guys in their first year — especially guys with the pedigree of those two — that’s enough to buy in on their long-term success. … Meanwhile, Goedert saw his target total nearly double from his rookie year to his second year even with Zach Ertz still around, which (a) shows what kind of development we could potentially see out of Fant and Hockenson, and (b) shows he can be a fantasy-relevant tight end even with Zach Ertz around (and who knows how long that will be).

Four years

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins (Age at Week 1: 24; 2019 fantasy finish: TE12)

Gesicki’s rookie year in 2018 couldn’t have realistically gone much worse, but he turned things around down the stretch of his second year in 2019. With the Dolphins on the rise, Gesicki has a chance to be a real fantasy breakout this year or next. That said, his track record of success still isn’t super long, so buying in that long-term carries risk.

Three years

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (Age at Week 1: 30; 2019 fantasy finish: TE1)
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles (Age at Week 1: 29; 2019 fantasy finish: TE4)
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (Age at Week 1: 24; 2019 fantasy finish: TE5)

Kelce has been the No. 1 fantasy tight end four years in a row. On the one hand, there’s no real reason why that should stop now, but on the other, he’s over 30 now, with this commitment taking him to age 33, and even at a shallow position, it’s hard to count on him producing that long. … Ertz has been very good two years in a row, but a lot of his production has been quantity-over-quality, and with Goedert on the rise and the fact that the team can get out of his deal on the soon side, I don’t want to cast my lot with Ertz further into his 30s. … And then there’s Andrews, who has managed some ridiculous touchdown success over the last two years, with 13 scores on 148 targets, roughly half as many targets as Kelce and Ertz and easily the fewest of any tight end with more than 10 touchdowns. Is that likely to be the way his whole career goes? No. But his role in the Ravens offense lends itself to an inordinately high touchdown rate. I’ll give him the time to prove that, even if his upside isn’t as high as the other names in this range.

Two years

Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders (Age at Week 1: 27; 2019 fantasy finish: TE3)
Austin Hooper, Atlanta Falcons (Age at Week 1: 25; 2019 fantasy finish: TE6)
Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers (Age at Week 1: 25; 2019 fantasy finish: TE9)
Evan Engram, New York Giants (Age at Week 1: 26; 2019 fantasy finish: TE18)

This is an interesting mishmash of names. Waller was the biggest breakout of the 2019 season at the position, but he’s 27 and turns 28 barely after the season starts and had 178 career yards before last year. Obviously, there are extenuating circumstances, but I need to see more of a track record before committing to him long-term. … We’ll see where Hooper lands in free agency, but he’s gotten better every year of his career so far. Still, I’d like more security in landing spot to commit longer. … Henry is a free agent as well, though it really doesn’t sound like he’s moving on from Los Angeles. His persistent health problems are a sticking point for a long-term investment, though. … Speaking of concerning health concerns, Engram would be a six-year guy if we knew he could play 16 games a year. But he’s played 34 of a possible 48 games in his three years, with the number going down each year, and there have already been rumors this offseason that there are concerns he’ll never be able to stay healthy.

One year

Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints (Age at Week 1: 33; 2019 fantasy finish: TE7)
Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams (Age at Week 1: 27; 2019 fantasy finish: TE8)

Cook set a career high in yards and touchdowns in 2018, then raised his touchdown total by 50% last year to 9. His yardage fell off a bit (partly because of injury), but still, he’s the rare 30-year-old who has developed into a real fantasy option. Still, he is in his 30s, and between the chance of him deteriorating with age and the possibility of Drew Brees hanging it up, you can’t go more than a year on him. … Higbee has played 63 of a possible 64 career games, but he had two career games of more than 50 yards before December of last year. He averaged 104.4 yards per game in five games that month, though, and established himself as a fantasy-relevant player. Either one year is too long, because December was a mirage, or it is too short, because suddenly Higbee is a GUY. I have no idea which it is, and I have no idea whether one year is the right answer.