The gamble: How long will you bet on the fantasy starter RBs?
Deciding how long a player will be a fantasy football starter is a difficult game. Jerick McKinnon was the No. 17 fantasy running back two years ago and hasn’t played a snap since. His ex-teammate Adrian Peterson was the RB5 back in 2007 and was still in the top 33 a year ago.
So when trying to predict how long players — running backs in particular — might remain starter-worthy, you have to accept there is a margin of error. Sure, Peterson has been relevant for 13 years. But that’s obviously a massive exception.
Friday, I played a game wondering how long you should commit to a quarterback in fantasy, and today I’m doing the same with running backs. But because of the volatility at the position, the scale just has to be smaller. I had five different quarterbacks get longer than five years on Friday, but five years is the max at running back. You just can’t possibly predict which backs will still be good in 2025, even if math says one or two of the current guys will be.
The rules: Right now, you can roster a player for however long you want at no draft penalty. But you have to decide the duration right now. You can’t bail early if things go south, you can’t extend him if things are going well at the end. So how long will you bet on a player? Presupposing a pretty normal 12-team PPR league, where you start two running backs and a flex, how long are you comfortable betting on a player?
Instead of going player-by-player at running back, I’m dividing it into tiers by the number of years I’d choose. There were 35 running backs I deemed worthy of consideration for this exercise.
Five years
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers (Age at Week 1: 24; 2019 fantasy finish: RB1)
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings (Age at Week 1: 25; 2019 fantasy finish: RB6)
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants (Age at Week 1: 23; 2019 fantasy finish: RB10)
Even though these three are all in the same group, I consider Barkley and McCaffrey a bit ahead of Cook. I came close to giving the former two six years; I came close to giving Cook four. In the end, though, these are the three backs I’m most comfortable committing to for the longest time. McCaffrey is younger than Cook and has been healthier than both, but he’ll be bumping up against 30 years old at the end of this hypothetical age range. Betting on a running back being that good even this long is a dicey proposition.
Four years
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns (Age at Week 1: 24; 2019 fantasy finish: RB8)
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints (Age at Week 1: 25; 2019 fantasy finish: RB9)
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders (Age at Week 1: 22; 2019 fantasy finish: RB21)
Each of these three could argue to be bumped up a tier pretty easily. But if Cleveland’s offense can’t rebound from 2019, if the Saints struggle once Drew Brees is gone, if Jacobs doesn’t start to offer more as a receiver, then a long-term commitment could turn south in a hurry. But if things go well, you’ll enjoy all four of these years in a big way.
Three years
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers (Age at Week 1: 25; 2019 fantasy finish: RB2)
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys (Age at Week 1: 25; 2019 fantasy finish: RB3)
Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars (Age at Week 1: 25; 2019 fantasy finish: RB7)
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals (Age at Week 1: 24; 2019 fantasy finish: RB13)
J.K. Dobbins (Age at Week 1: 21)
D’Andre Swift (Age at Week 1: 21)
Jonathan Taylor (Age at Week 1: 21)
If Jones can do what he did in 2019 again, I might have to change my tune. For now, though, his ridiculous touchdown luck and the apparent refusal of the Packers to commit to a single back makes it hard to count on him remaining such a stud. … Elliott is still on the young side, but he also has a lot of wear on his tires and lacks the receiving upside of some of his peers. … I might be overvaluing the combination of Fournette’s 2019 production and my assumption that he’ll have more touchdown luck, but three years is a fine level of time to commit to someone with his upside. … If you had conducted this exercise in Week 10 of the 2019 season, Mixon might not have gotten three weeks, let alone three years, but he came alive down the stretch and should be a big part of an improving offense going forward.
And then there are the rookies. I wouldn’t argue with you for having Swift, Dobbins, and Taylor in any order entering the draft, so long as they were your 1-2-3 in some order. Obviously, the right or wrong landing spot could seriously affect the time commitment here, but from a team-agnostic perspective, this feels like the way to go.
Two years
Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers (Age at Week 1: 25; 2019 fantasy finish: RB4)
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans (Age at Week 1: 26; 2019 fantasy finish: RB5)
Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks (Age at Week 1: 26; 2019 fantasy finish: RB12)
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles (Age at Week 1: 23; 2019 fantasy finish: RB15)
Ekeler just got paid, with an extension from the Chargers that was announced Friday and cements him as the team’s RB1 going forward. As one of the first captains of the Ekeler bandwagon, I’m thrilled, but I’d be lying if I felt like he was the type of player whose body will hold up to several years of RB1 usage. … Henry has the exact opposite problem, a massive body of a type that doesn’t often age well. Between that and his lack of significant receiving game involvement, and I don’t trust his long-term superstardom. … Carson has been really good, but he’s also been really tough to trust from a health perspective. If you tell me he’s playing 16 games a year, I’ll probably go to a third year. But you can’t tell me that. … If we’re being team-agnostic here, I’d buy more in on Sanders than I am, but he’s on an Eagles team that has resisted any pretense of bell-cow usage at the running back position. At his peak for the next couple years, I think he’ll claw enough work out to be worth it, but he has to be at his peak.
One year
Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals (Age at Week 1: 26; 2019 fantasy finish: RB17)
Phillip Lindsay, Denver Broncos (Age at Week 1: 26; 2019 fantasy finish: RB19)
Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts (Age at Week 1: 24; 2019 fantasy finish: RB22)
Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers (Age at Week 1: 27; 2019 fantasy finish: RB23)
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears (Age at Week 1: 23; 2019 fantasy finish: RB24)
Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills (Age at Week 1: 23; 2019 fantasy finish: RB32)
James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers (Age at Week 1: 25; 2019 fantasy finish: RB35)
Damien Williams, Kansas City Chiefs (Age at Week 1: 28; 2019 fantasy finish: RB38)
Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Lions (Age at Week 1: 23; 2019 fantasy finish: RB54)
This group can be broken down into subgroups:
The injury risks: Conner, Williams, and Johnson all should have had better 2019 seasons, but couldn’t get and stay on the field for enough time to make it worth it. Like Carson above, if you were to tell me these guys would get and stay on the field more reliably going forward, I’d be more liable to give them longer commitments. But I’ll take a year on each and either get out cheaply or regret losing a valuable player. Better to not have a guy who is valuable than be stuck with a guy who isn’t.
Young players: Neither Montgomery nor Singletary was a sensation as a rookie, but both should have their teams’ respective No. 1 jobs next year and have teams with other needs, so we shouldn’t expect any real risk of the team using resources on replacements any time soon. But if 2020 doesn’t go much better, 2021 is a different question.
The question marks: Drake was electric down the stretch for the Cardinals, and he was always at least fine in Miami. But we don’t know where he’ll play next year, who else will be on that team, and I’m talking myself out of even one year by talking about it. … Lindsay wasn’t as good in 2019 as he was in 2018, but he was still good. He could easily be starter-worthy for multiple years going forward, but he lacks any kind of real upside. A non-sure thing without real RB1 upside is just not exciting enough for a long-term commitment. … Mack has been very good when the Colts are good, but between his gamescript-dependence and his lack of receiving game involvement, plus some brittleness and persistent rumors that the Colts might want to upgrade, he’s hard to count on.
Melvin Gordon: If you know what to do with Gordon right now, you’re a witch. Good luck.
Zero years
Mark Ingram, Baltimore Ravens (Age at Week 1: 30; 2019 fantasy finish: RB11)
Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams (Age at Week 1: 26; 2019 fantasy finish: RB14)
Le’Veon Bell, New York Jets (Age at Week 1: 28; 2019 fantasy finish: RB16)
James White, New England Patriots (Age at Week 1: 28; 2019 fantasy finish: RB18)
Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons (Age at Week 1: 28; 2019 fantasy finish: RB20)
Raheem Mostert, San Francisco 49ers (Age at Week 1: 28; 2019 fantasy finish: RB26)
Sony Michel, New England Patriots (Age at Week 1: 25; 2019 fantasy finish: RB31)
Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns (Age at Week 1: 25; 2019 fantasy finish: RB47)
Derrius Guice, Washington (Age at Week 1: 23; 2019 fantasy finish: RB69)
If I really wanted to make an argument for any of these guys, I could. But there is more downside than upside for each going forward, and that downside starts right away. I’ll happily bail on each, and if that proves to be wrong, I’ll accept that wrongness.