The gamble: How long will you bet on the fantasy starter QBs?
I created a little game a few years ago at PFF. And when I say “a little game,” I mean an intellectual exercise for fantasy football. But as an exercise, (a) I enjoyed it, and (b) I think it can be helpful for fantasy managers.
The game goes like this: Right now, in March, you can keep a player for however long you want, no draft penalty. But you have to commit to that time now. If you want him for a decade, you can have him for a decade. But you have to commit. No extensions when it runs out, no bailing early if things go south. So how long do you want to do it?
It’s silly. No league has that rule. But it’s a helpful exercise in establishing what we expect out of players, how long we trust them to make a go of things.
So that’s what I’m doing here. Today, I’m looking at the quarterbacks. Over the next four days, I’ll hit each position. The game imagines a 12-team PPR league, fairly normal settings — QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, flex. How long are you willing to commit to a player? What is your trust level?
Quarterbacks
Quarterback has the reputation of a position with a lot of stability. And for years, that has been the case. And for years going forward, it may continue to be the case. Right now? We’re in a changing of the guard. Among 2019’s top-12 fantasy quarterbacks, only five finished there even two years ago, and that list includes Tom Brady, and only two of those five finished better than ninth in 2019. We’re in the turnover period at the position.
Still, there are big names, and there are names we need to consider. These are the 25 quarterbacks I think are worthy of consideration for this exercise, even if the answer for some of them needs to be zero.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Age at Week 1: 24
2019 fantasy finish: QB6
Allen has already beaten the expectations many had for him entering the league. I clearly remember a Twitter poll asking where you’d draft Allen in a dynasty rookie draft, and “I wouldn’t” was a popular none-of-the-above response. Obviously, that was silly, but it illustrates what public perception was like for him a couple years ago. Now, he’s tied for eighth in the league in rushing touchdowns across the last two years, five ahead of any other quarterback, and he just finished as the No. 6 fantasy QB.
The commitment: 2 years. Allen still hasn’t developed into any kind of impressive passer. Even last year, when things went relatively well for him, he finished 30th in passer rating and averaged only 5.7 adjusted net yards per attempt. His legs are going to keep him fantasy-relevant going forward, but for how long? Eventually he either needs to improve as a passer (in which case this is an underbid) or those deficiencies will catch up with him.
Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Age at Week 1: 43
2019 fantasy finish: QB12
Woe unto he who doubts Brady, who just had his 11th season averaging at least 16 fantasy points per game, with nine of them coming in the last 10 years. Of course, it was also his lowest average since 2013 and second-lowest since 2006, with his fewest passing touchdowns since 2003 (2008 excepted across all that). He turns 43 in August and might not even be on the Patriots next season.
The commitment: 0 years. “Get out a year early rather than a year late” would have had you bailing on Brady’s future for a decade now and would have been wrong for most of that time. But zero years is the right answer, and anything longer than one year would be foolish.
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
Age at Week 1: 41
2019 fantasy finish: QB21
Brees actually had the fifth-highest PPG average of his career last year. On the flip side, he missed five games and still trailed off in the playoffs. It’s getting harder and harder to commit to Brees given those late-season struggles, even with arguably the best group of top three weapons in the league in Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Jared Cook.
The commitment: 0 years. I waffled here and almost went “1.” But I also just noted on Thursday how I’m nervous about the Saints offense going forward, with some surprising touchdown success (Brees had a career-high 7.1% touchdown percentage last year) and the insane Brees-Thomas connection covering for some of the other problems. If either of those falters even a little, then Brees becomes a good-not-great option.
Teddy Bridgewater, New Orleans Saints
Age at Week 1: 27
2019 fantasy finish: QB33
It’s fair to question whether a quarterback who has all of 1,502 passing yards in the last four seasons combined should even be in this conversation. But after Bridgewater and the Saints went 5-0 in Brees’ injury absence, with the quarterback looking better as he played more, I at least wanted to acknowledge his presence, considering he’s in excellent shape to get a starting job somewhere in 2020.
The commitment: 0 years. Yes, I wanted to acknowledge Bridgewater. But I couldn’t justify doing any more than that, at the very least not before knowing where he’ll be playing next year. If Bridgewater lands in, say, Tampa Bay? You could talk me into an investment. But absent that knowledge, I can’t make any promises.
Joe Burrow
Age at Week 1: 23
2019 fantasy finish: NR
Burrow is going to be a Cincinnati Bengal in the next few weeks with almost no real chance of any other outcome. With the Bengals, he’ll have a good running back and a not-bad receiver corps, especially if the team retains A.J. Green and actually gets him on the field in 2020. After a huge 2019 season shot Burrow up draft rankings, he’s going to be one of the focal points of the season to come.
The commitment: 4 years. The downside here could be 2020, with Burrow a rookie on a team with what is likely to be an underwhelming offensive line. But I’ll take a good-not-great Year 1 for the promise of what could be much better Years 2-4. The risk here is that if Burrow is worth it in those years, I’ll end up regretting losing him at that point. But this is the right balance of risk and reward.
Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders
Age at Week 1: 29
2019 fantasy finish: QB16
Three years ago on PFF, I spearheaded an exercise we called the “Foundation Draft,” with 32 different PFF analysts breaking down who they would draft of anyone in the entire world to start a franchise. Carr, coming off a season that had him hyped as an MVP candidate until late, with a 28:6 TD:INT ratio, went fourth in the draft, behind only Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, and Russell Wilson. Well, since then he’s averaged 20.7 touchdowns per year with 7.0 interceptions, and now his team is considering replacing him with a 43-year-old free agent who has been declining of late.
The commitment: 0 years. Carr’s 2017 is going to prove to be on of the great outlier seasons of recent vintage — even ignoring his personal stats, the Raiders went 12-4 that year but a combined 27-53 over the rest of Carr’s Raiders career, with no other winning seasons. He’s been the most successful quarterback of the 2014 draft class (with only Bridgewater and Jimmy Garoppolo real candidates to supplant him), but that speaks more to the struggles of that class than Carr’s greatness.
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
Age at Week 1: 32
2019 fantasy finish: QB16
Cousins put up 3,603 passing yards in 2019, his first season under 4,000 since 2014, before he was a starter. His 26 touchdowns were on the low side of his range of recent years, but not the low. On the other hand, he only threw 6 interceptions, his lowest since his rookie 2012, long before he became a regular starter.
The commitment: 1 year. I’ll buy in on Cousins getting a year to get back to the good, especially with the chances Adam Thielen is healthier in 2020. But after 4-plus rushing touchdowns each of his last three years in Washington, Cousins has had only a single ground score each of his seasons in Minnesota and, while he was never a star running QB, he contributed enough there to make him worthwhile before. That’s not happening now. One year, that’s all you get.
Sam Darnold, New York Jets
Age at Week 1: 23
2019 fantasy finish: QB27
Darnold missed time early in the season and struggled for a big chunk of when he was on the field. But he threw for two more touchdowns and two fewer interceptions in 2019 than 2018, and it’s definitely worth noting that this is a quarterback who doesn’t even turn 23 in June and already has 26 starts under his belt.
The commitment: 1 year. I’m not convinced Darnold is ever going to be a superstar, and there are massive questions surrounding his 2020 weaponry. But assuming the team gets some productive pieces around him, I’m willing to give Darnold a year.
Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers
Age at Week 1: 28
2019 fantasy finish: QB14
Entering his seventh season, Garoppolo has only 26 career starts, with 16 of them coming last year. Of course, he took his team to the Super Bowl. The other side is that he has only 116 career rushing yards and, even on a Super Bowl team that had maybe the game’s best tight end, he couldn’t even finish as a QB1 in 2019.
The commitment: 0 years. I don’t for even one second believe the 49ers are going to bail on Garoppolo to sign a 43-year-old quarterback. But the fact that it’s apparently on the table should tell you that hopes for Jimmy GQ aren’t super high.
Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
Age at Week 1: 25
2019 fantasy finish: QB13
It would be harder to have a worse rookie year than Goff’s 2016. It would be hard to have a bigger improvement from Year 1 to Year 2 than Goff’s 2016-2017. But after 7.7 adjusted net yards per attempt and a 100-plus passer rating each of 2017 and 2018, Goff full off last year, with those numbers coming in at 6.5 and 86.5, respectively.
The commitment: 0 years. There is some game theory at play here. Could I see Goff being a top-12 fantasy QB next year, even for the next few? Absolutely I could. But while I could see him finishing ninth, 10th, 11th, whatever, it’s very hard to picture a scenario where he can finish in the top six or so. And while locking in fantasy starter value is nice, letting Goff go and trying to find someone with a higher ceiling is the better play.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Age at Week 1: 23
2019 fantasy finish: QB1
You don’t need a recap of Jackson’s 2019. He was so good. He is so good.
The commitment: 6 years. This probably feels a bit low. But so much of Jackson’s value comes from his legs that I worry about his career progressing like you might expect a running back’s career to go. And his touchdown percentage in 2019 was so ridiculously high that he might ultimately have overperformed.
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Age at Week 1: 23
2019 fantasy finish: QB24
Jones had some of the highest highs in the league last year — he had three games of 30-plus fantasy points, one of only two quarterbacks (Lamar Jackson) to do so more than twice — but was wildly inconsistent, producing four games of four-plus touchdowns and eight of 1 or 0, meaning he only had between 1 and 4 touchdowns in a game once all year.
The commitment: 0 years. Jones, like Josh Allen, has already overperformed what a lot might have expected out of him, especially in his first year. But between his inconsistency and his turnovers (he had 12 interceptions and 18 fumbles — 11 lost — as a rookie), it’s so hard to trust him to improve dramatically. He should continue to feast on the lower-tier defenses he faces (his big games in 2019 were very team-dependent), but you can’t build an entire QB1 out of beating up on bad teams.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Age at Week 1: 24
2019 fantasy finish: QB7
Mahomes had the Lamar Jackson season numbers in 2018. By points per game last year (accounting for his two missed games), Mahomes was fifth last year, and even higher when you ignore the game where he suffered his injury. In other words, Mahomes and Jackson are the top two fantasy quarterbacks in whatever order you want to put them, and there’s not much argument to the contrary there.
The commitment: 10 years. For 2020, even 2021, we can debate the value of these two. But you’d have a hard road to convince me that Mahomes’ abilities aren’t more trustworthy for the long-term. 10 years might be short.
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
Age at Week 1: 25
2019 fantasy finish: QB20
After an impressive rookie year in 2018, hopes were (too) high for Mayfield last year, leaving him as one of the season’s biggest disappointments. He passed for five fewer touchdowns and seven more interceptions, seeing his passer rating drop from 93.7 to 78.8. And all this despite adding Odell Beckham Jr. to his offense.
The commitment: 2 years. This bet is pretty clearly wrong, because if Mayfield can’t improve on last year, it’s two wasted years, but if he bounces back like he should, then it’s too short. Call it hedging my bets. I want the chance to invest in a Mayfield who looks like the 2018 version, but I don’t want to commit long-term in case I’m dramatically wrong.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Age at Week 1: 23
2019 fantasy finish: QB8
It would be easy to overlook the fact that Murray was the No. 8 fantasy quarterback last year, with 20 passing touchdowns and four more on the ground. With no offensive line, a wildly inconsistent running game, and a No. 1 receiver who was older than dirt (you know, from a football perspective) when Murray was still in high school, that was an impressive start to a career.
The commitment: 6 years. Yes, I’m giving Murray the same long-term commitment as Lamar Jackson. They’re seven months apart in age, and while Jackson clearly had the better year last year and should continue to do so for the immediate future, Murray has the same surface characteristics that should make him a fantasy value for a long time.
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
Age at Week 1: 31
2019 fantasy finish: QB51
Newton might as well have not played last year, with two games played and zero touchdowns accounted for. That said, he still averaged nearly 300 passing yards per game. And he had at least 400 rushing yards every year of his career but one before 2019.
The commitment: 2 years. I’m more scared by Newton being 31 than his 2019 injury. And while I’ll concede that we don’t even know where he’s going to play in 2020 necessarily, you have to concede that there’s no real reason to think he’s going to dramatically change the type of quarterback he is wherever that ends up being.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Age at Week 1: 27
2019 fantasy finish: QB2
In four seasons now, Prescott has rushed for between 277 and 357 every year, a tight window. After 6 rushing scores each of his first three years, that fell to 3 last year, but that was more than offset by a career-high in passing yards (4,902, best by 1,017) and passing scored (30, best by 7). It was a career year.
The commitment: 6 years. If Prescott leaves Dallas, or if he stays and Amari Cooper leaves, I might consider changing this gamble. But I also might now; he’s done enough in his four years so far to mean you should be willing to trust him anywhere as at least a low-end QB1, but one with significant upside.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Age at Week 1: 36
2019 fantasy finish: QB9
Rodgers’ numbers in 2019 were at the low end of his career expectations, but nothing there was the low point. It was arguably his worst full season since becoming a starter, but even then he was fantasy’s No. 9 QB. And he did that with Davante Adams hurt for a quarter of the season and no viable second receiving option.
The commitment: 2 years. Again, it’s the age more than the 2019 results that concerns me. Rodgers will be 38 at the end of the 2021 season, and for all Tom Brady and Drew Brees have done to give old guys credibility, old guys are still old guys. Aaron Jones is likely to have less touchdown success in 2020 than he did in 2019, which could lead to those scores going Rodgers’ way, and you have to believe the team will bring in some reinforcement weapons for Rodgers this offseason.
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Age at Week 1: 38
2019 fantasy finish: QB53
Roethlisberger’s 2019 was off to an awful start before he was lost for the year to injury. But those struggles make it easy to forget that 2018 might have been his best season from a fantasy perspective, with career-highs in attempts, completions, yards, and touchdowns.
The commitment: 0 years. If I regret this, I’ll know by the end of September. But the age on Roethlisberger combined with the struggles of that offense without Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown scare me. I say zero years, but I say it with the most nervousness of any of these zero-year bets.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
Age at Week 1: 35
2019 fantasy finish: QB11
Ryan’s year-by-year fantasy finishes over the last seven years: 11th, 7th, 18th, 3rd, 14th, 2nd, 11th. Obviously there’s no reason to believe that’s a reliable trend, but if it is, he’s due for a great 2020. Absent that not-a-trend trend, Ryan is still the guy likely to throw for 4,000 yards for the 10th straight season who has averaged 28.3 passing touchdowns over that stretch.
The commitment: 1 year. Austin Hooper is leaving this offseason, and Devonta Freeman might join him as well. Julio Jones will be 32 next year. There’s plenty of reason to believe the Falcons are heading toward a rebuilding process, which will likely hurt Ryan’s fantasy upside. I’ll give him 2020.
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
Age at Week 1: 32
2019 fantasy finish: QB32
Stafford was the No. 4 QB by fantasy points per game prior to his injury last year, so if you believe that, you should be buying into him for fantasy going forward. Before his down 2018, he had seven straight 4,000-yard seasons, after all.
The commitment: 0 years. And here, you can see that I am not believing in his bounceback 2019. Health from Kerryon Johnson should lead to more ground work for the Lions in 2020, and Stafford’s pass attempts have now fallen every year since 2012. I don’t think he has significant upside anymore.
Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
Age at Week 1: 24
2019 fantasy finish: QB4
Watson is now 38 games into his career and has averaged almost 2.5 touchdowns a game over that time. There was simply no growing pains here, and while he dropped from 4,165 passing yards in 2018 to 3,852 last year and 551 rushing yards to 413, he offset that with two extra rushing scores.
The commitment: 8 years. This would take Watson through his age-32 season, a perfectly fine age to start questioning a star quarterback. I see no reason to believe he can’t do this for a long, long time.
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles
Age at Week 1: 27
2019 fantasy finish: QB10
Would you believe 2019 was the first year Wentz has passed for more than 4,000 yards, and he barely did it at that? Wentz had 4,039 passing yards last year, 300 more than his rookie year in 2016 and close to 1,000 more than his 2017 or 2018. Of course, both of those seasons were interrupted by injury — he was in the MVP conversation in 2017 before getting hurt. Even then, he missed three games and was 704 yards shy of 4,000, so there’s no guarantee he’d have made it that year.
The commitment: 2 years. Wentz has played 56 of a possible 64 career games, so it’s very possible his “injury prone” reputation is overblown. But he has genuinely had trouble staying healthy, and given the absolute disaster that was his receiver corps last year, it’s hard t cast long-term trust on that in a quarterback.
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Age at Week 1: 31
2019 fantasy finish: QB3
Wilson was one of my biggest whiffs last year. I had him outside my top-12 fantasy quarterbacks entering the year, because I saw a team that promised to go significantly run-heavy for a second year in a row and a quarterback coming off an unsustainably high touchdown percentage. And I was right — the Seahawks did run the ball a lot, and Wilson’s 8.2% TD percentage in 2018 fell to 6.0 last year — but it didn’t matter, because he thrived when he had to throw the ball, coming only 100 yards off a career-high in passing yards and going from 0 rushing scores in 2018 to 3 last year.
The commitment: 4 years. Maybe betting on a quarterback through age 35 is a tough call, but Wilson is now eight years into his career and has never missed a game, and at some point you want to believe the Seahawks will unleash him even a little. He’s as trustworthy as it comes.
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Age at Week 1: 26
2019 fantasy finish: QB5
While Wilson was one of my biggest misses, Winston was one of my biggest successes. I predicted him to finish the year as a top-five fantasy quarterback, and that’s exactly what he did. Obviously, he did that despite 30 interceptions, a fairly unforgivable number, but we’re talking fantasy here and for fantasy he was more than fine.
The commitment: 1 year. Look, I don’t know what to do with Winston for 2020, and neither do you. There’s a very real chance he isn’t even a starter next year. But there’s also the chance he’s back in Tampa Bay, back with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in a Bruce Arians offense, back where he just had a massive fantasy season. And if he is, you want a part of it.