The luckiest and unluckiest defenses of 2019
On Thursday, I looked at the teams that were the most and least successful at scoring points based on their yardage. In other words, how many yards a team produces can greatly inform how many points that team scores, and if one is way out of wack from the other, you can take a lesson from that.
Of course, there are two sides of the field. While my area of focus — fantasy — obviously deals more with the offensive side than the defensive, knowing who your players are facing can go a long way. You wouldn’t play a borderline running back against Tampa Bay last year. You wouldn’t play a borderline anybody against New England.
In that area, we can look at the same thing. A bend-but-don’t-break defense could allow a lot of yards, not a lot of points. A defense that often inherits bad field position could hold yardage in check but see the points allowed be high. And while it’s not always as actionable as the offensive side of things, it’s still worth knowing.
Below, I’m taking a look at the 2019 teams who most over- or underperformed expectations based on their yardage allowed (using the last five years as the sample for what expectation might be), and pondering what that might mean for 2020.
Exceeded expectations
New England Patriots
4,414 yards allowed, 225 points allowed, 63.5 below expectation
The Patriots are the bend-but-don’t-break-iest team in the league, and they have been for a while now. The 2016 Patriots led the sample in beating expectation. The 2017 team was sixth, the 2019 team was seventh, the 2018 team was 18th, the 2015 team was 25th. That’s five of the top 25 of a 160-team sample. Teams allowed a point every 15.3 yards allowed over the last five years; the Patriots sit at 18.7.
The Patriots defense in 2019 was the league’s best for most of the year. It would be smart not to assume it will be the best in the league again in 2020, but it would also be smart to assume it will be in the neighborhood of the top. And since touchdowns (and points) are obviously the biggest driver of fantasy success, it would also be smart to assume the Patriots will keep touchdowns in check as well as anyone.
Kansas City Chiefs
5,594 yards allowed, 308 points allowed, 57.6 below expectation
The Chiefs are the Patriots-lite in this research, with four of the top 21 teams over the last five years (the fifth, the 2018 team, finished 80th). The obvious difference here is that the Patriots also hold yardage down better than the Chiefs; Kansas City is the team that will let you run all over the field between the 20s, but hit the red zone and things tighten up. After calling the Patriots the “bend-but-don’t-break-iest” team a couple paragraphs ago, that phrase might be better served for describing the Chiefs.
For fantasy? The Chiefs always look like a friendly opponent for your fantasy weapons, but it’s worth taking a second look in some situations. Touchdowns might be scarcer than you expect.
Fell short of expectations
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5,503 yards allowed, 449 points allowed, 89.3 over expectation
This shouldn’t be a surprise at all. Jameis Winston was an interception machine last year, which put teams on short fields more often than anyone else. The Buccaneers defense was much improved in 2019, a fact that was shadowed by Winston’s generosity, as they were the second-worst team compared to expectation of the last five years. If Tampa Bay has a new quarterback next year — or if Winston can give a cursory glance at the “ball security” page of his football glossary — the Bucs should make for a less fantasy-friendly defense.
(One note: I mentioned that the Bucs, 89.3 more points allowed than expected, were the second-worst by this study. The worst were the 2018 Raiders, who allowed 133.5 more points than expectation. The Raiders allowed the 30th-fewest yards over the last five years but the fourth-most points. That’s orders of magnitude worse than anyone else. That’s incredible.)
Carolina Panthers
5,992 yards allowed, 470 points allowed, 78.4 over expectation
Cam Newton was bad, but not for very long. Will Grier was also not very good, but also for not very long. In between them, Kyle Allen was bad, but for much, much longer than the other two. Altogether, it made for a Carolina offense that was competent — fantasy managers of D.J. Moore or (especially) Christian McCaffrey can attest to that — but didn’t do a struggling defense any favors. Add in a run defense that couldn’t do much, and the Carolina defense was nothing like what the team has offered in recent years (the Panthers only appear one more time in the 50 worst teams in this research).
Of course, with the team looking like it’s starting over this offseason, it’s hard to tell exactly how much we can take away from this. Will the 2020 Panthers look anything like the 2019 Panthers? Right now, you’d have to say probably not.