The candidates to be 2020’s overall fantasy WR1
There’s not a lot of turnover at the top of the wide receiver position for fantasy football. Antonio Brown, for example, lead the position in fantasy scoring four straight years, 2014-2017. Calvin Johnson led in 2010-2011. Unlike the running back position — where leading in one year is just about a disqualifier from ever doing it again — or even quarterback — where Aaron Rodgers is the only multi-time leader in the last decade — wide receivers can and often do lead the league a bunch of times before their run of success runs out.
Today I’m continuing my series of attempting to handicap the candidates to finish as each position’s top fantasy finisher. For this exercise, only finishing No. 1 matters — second is as good as last. Obviously, there’s a world of value after No. 1, but finding the top finisher can be crucial to our hunt for fantasy ceiling.
These are the wide receivers.
The prototype
Over the last 10 years, this has been the average performance of the top fantasy wide receiver:
The only player on this list with under 90 receptions (Tyreek Hill in 2018) supplemented that with 22 carries for 151 yards and a touchdown. In other words, 90 receptions is the absolute baseline. All but Hill in 2018 and Johnson in 2010 had at least 140 targets (and they both had 137). All but Johnson in 2010 had at least 9 receptions scores (Johnson only had 5 but made up for it with a record 1,964 yards). All but Brown in 2016 had at least 1,400 yards.
Basically, a receiver has to be a relatively safe bet for 135 targets, 90 receptions, 1,400 yards, and 9 touchdowns (that baseline yields 284 points; the lowest position-leading score in the last decade is 307.3) to even be under consideration for the top spot.
The favorite
Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
It feels boring to keep picking last year’s top finishers as the likely top finishers for this year as well, but then the top finishers of 2019 had the biggest combined lead over second place we’ve ever seen, and did so by a lot. Thomas was the No. 1 receiver last year by nearly 100 points. I’d have to have a really good reason not to pick him for 2020, and I just don’t.
Why would he not make it? Age for Drew Brees, combined with the best No. 2 receiver Thomas has had in years in Emmanuel Sanders, could lower Thomas’ ceiling. He’s as close to a lock to finish as a WR1 as anyone, but it’s possible changes in the Saints offense could take him down from the WR1.
What are his chances? Thomas sees a lower average depth of target than most of the top receivers. That is a double-edged sword — it gives him a higher catch percentage, upping his overall receiving total (and his fantasy point total, since we’re talking PPR), but it means he has to do more work on a per-reception basis to keep his yardage high. But that hasn’t worked against him yet in his career. He’s still got to be the favorite.
The second tier
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers
Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs
Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons
DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals
Most everyone is going to have Thomas as the top receiver in fantasy rankings for 2020. And then I would expect second through fifth will be these guys, but the order might change dramatically from ranker to ranker. This isn’t how I would rank them for raw fantasy value in 2020, but it is how I’d rank them in odds to be No. 1.
Why would they not make it? Each has a different reason. For Adams, it’s age of Aaron Rodgers and a possible increased emphasis on the run. For Hill, it’s just a low target ceiling combined with a wealth of other weapons in Kansas City. For Jones, it’s age and Calvin Ridley. For Hopkins, it’s Kyler Murray’s rushing totals and the many mouths to feed in Arizona. All are very strong candidates, but all have some negatives as well.
What are their chances? Well, in a Thomas-less world, I would think we’d have a strong four-way race for the top spot. Add in Thomas and then the fact that this is a four-headed monster and each individual guy’s odds might struggle. Combined, great odds. Individually? Less.
The longer shots
Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns
I very clearly would not rank Beckham here overall, but it’s not even that hard to see a path to him being the No. 1 receiver. Keep Austin Hooper in to block more, have Baker Mayfield produce more like 2018 than 2019, have things just break a little more right for Beckham, and he’s right there. If we’re strictly talking odds for No. 1, Beckham has an argument to be up there in the second tier’s group of four.
Why would he not make it? You saw last year. He still cracked 1,000 yards, but he only had 74 receptions, only 4 touchdowns. And even the yardage total was barely over 1,000, at 1,035. We haven’t seen a version of Beckham that could make it to No. 1 since 2016 (101 receptions, 1,367 yards, 10 touchdowns). But the skill set is still there.
What are his chances? There’s a lot of boom/(relative) bust here. I think Beckham has a better shot at finishing as the No. 1 receiver than, say, the No. 6 — either he bounces back from last year with a monster season or he continues to struggle and slips further behind Jarvis Landry. But I think he’s an intriguing sleeper candidate.
Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions
At a minimum of 50 targets last year, Golladay was fifth in yards per target, one of seven guys to top 10.0. He was second in that seven in targets (at 116) and led the group in touchdowns (11). On the other hand, among those 80 receivers with 50 targets, Golladay was 64th in catch percentage, at 56.0%. Obviously, he was hurt by Jeff Driskel and David Blough playing quarterback, but he’d need to significantly improve that number to have a real shot at the crown, and his percentages in his first two years were 58.3 and 58.8. Still, Golladay is the clear No. 1 receiver in what could be a potent offense.
Why would he not make it? His catch percentage doesn’t improve, or rookie D’Andre Swift and a healthy Kerryon Johnson combine to run the ball a lot more in 2020 than the Lions did in 2019.
What are his chances? Not great, but there’s a definite path if he and Matthew Stafford stay healthy and he can take one more small step forward.
The top 20 wide receivers on (very subjective) likelihood of finishing as WR1 only
1. Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
2. Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers
3. Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs
4. Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons
5. DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals
6. Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns
7. Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions
8. Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
9. D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers
10. Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
11. Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
12. Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings
13. Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
14. A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans
15. T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts
16. A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals
17. Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
18. Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams
19. Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys
20. D.J. Chark, Jacksonville Jaguars