The candidates to be 2020’s overall fantasy RB1
The quest for the No. 1 running back in fantasy football in a given year is arguably the most interesting position to debate. And that’s because if there’s one thing we can say with relative certainty, it’s that the No. 1 this year will never have been the No. 1 before.
Don’t believe me? In 2002 and 2003, Priest Holmes was the top fantasy scorer at the running back position. So starting with that second year, 2003, in the last 17 years, we have had 17 different RB1s for fantasy. Seriously, there has not been a repeat top scorer since this year’s rookie class was in diapers.
In recent years, the regularity of the swap has become even more dramatic; since 2007, the only running backs who have even put up multiple top-two seasons are Ray Rice (2009 and 2011), LeSean McCoy (2010 and 2011), Adrian Peterson (2012 and 2015), Le’Veon Bell (2014 and 2017), and Christian McCaffrey (2018 and 2019).
If you believe the trend that a previous top finisher won’t do it again, then contenders for the 2020 crown like McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley won’t do it. Obviously, that trend means more when looking back than looking forward, but it’s intriguing nonetheless.
As I did Wednesday with quarterbacks, today I’m attempting to handicap the quest for top fantasy running back of the 2020 season. This exercise is only interested in who is likely to finish No. 1 — the highest possible standard at the position. That means a running back who is relatively safe to finish as a fantasy starter but with not a lot of shot as the overall RB1 is at a disadvantage.
The prototype
Over the last 10 years, here is the average performance of the top fantasy running back:
In the last 10 years, we’ve had 24 running backs top 300 carries in a season. Seven of those came in 2010; 14 came in 2010-2012. So over the last seven years, we’ve only had 10 300-carry backs — two in 2013, two in 2014, one each in 2015-2018, and then two last year. No back has topped 330 carries since DeMarco Murray had 392 (!!) in 2014.
That’s a lot of words to say that you aren’t likely to find a 300-carry back … but to find the top fantasy back, you have to try. The top finisher among running backs in the last decade has averaged 290 carries, with all 10 getting at least 259.
Passing-game involvement is also a must. Peterson in 2012 only had 51 targets, but the other nine all had at least 84, with six of the 10 backs topping 100 targets. Since we use PPR scoring, receiving production is crucial.
The favorite
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
Obviously, McCaffrey would have to buck the trend to finish as the No. 1. He’d be the first back to do so for a second time in almost 20 years. But he also had the most fantasy points for a running back in the last decade by almost 70 last year, and was 2019’s top finisher at the position by an incredible 156.4 points. He’s got to be the heavy favorite to break history and top the list.
What would have to happen: I mean, we’ve seen it. McCaffrey gets the highest snap share of any running back, gets a massive target load, and scores 20 touchdowns or close to it. He could regress pretty significantly from his 2019 and still be the overwhelming favorte.
Why would he not make it? A new coaching staff in Carolina will likely mean a lower snaps hare for McCaffrey (because it would be hard for him to play as much as he has the last couple years). A deteriorating defense could mean more high-scoring games, which could mean more passing and less rushing, especially now that the Panthers have in Robby Anderson a competent third receiver.
What are his chances? Did you see above when I said he was the top finisher of 2019 by 156.4 points? You could dock him 10 points per game and he’d have been in a close race with Aaron Jones. Any regression would have to be an absolute beast to knock McCaffrey from the top spot.
The second tier
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
Barkley was the top finisher of 2018 at 385.8 points, and still managed 18.8 PPG last year despite returning probably too fast from injury. The Giants did add Dion Lewis, the closest thing Barkley has had to an above-average backup, but still, this is Barkley’s job.
What would have to happen: Health, first of all, though that’s basically a prerequisite for anybody. Beyond that, Barkley would be a heavy favorite in a league where Carolina was just removed from the world. He doesn’t require much.
Why would he not make it? Could Lewis get enough targets to take away some of Barkley’s top end? It’s possible, if a misallocation of resources. But he could cap Barkley’s overall ceiling.
What are his chances? Of finishing No. 2? Fantastic. Of finishing No. 1 and beating McCaffrey? Less fantastic.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
In the two games Kamara missed in 2019, Latavius Murray finished second and third in RB PPR scoring. If you just add Murray’s points those two weeks to Kamara’s season-long total (not exactly how it works, of course, but just go with me), Kamara’s ninth-place finish last year becomes a comfortable second-place, and that’s despite the worst touchdown output of his career.
Why would he not make it? Well, Murray is still around, and Taysom Hill keeps stealing points from his teammates, and the Saints have in Michael Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders/Jared Cook the best group of pass-catchers they’ve had since Kamara came around. So there’s more competition.
What are his chances? Kamara’s chances of finishing as a RB1 are fantastic. As the RB1? That’s more of a longshot.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
It’s true that Henry doesn’t get as many targets as you’d expect from someone trying to finish as RB1; he has 74 targets in his four seasons combined, fewer than all but one RB1 in the last decade has had in their RB1 season alone. But if there’s a back out there who could legitimate get 370 carries or more, it’s Henry, who split some time with Dion Lewis each of the last two years and still had nine games of 20-plus carries. Now with Lewis gone and Henry’s only real competition coming from rookie third-rounder Darrynton Evans, Henry should get a massive load of carries.
Why would he not make it? Clearly, the targets. Do you know how much rushing production you’d have to amass to be RB1 if you’re only putting up 40-ish receiving points a year? It’s … a lot. If Henry rushes for 1,500 yards and 20 touchdowns, that’s a massive season. It’s also 270 points … or comfortably lower than any top running back has put up in a long time. Even give him those 40 receiving points (more than he’s had in all but one season) and he’d be the lowest-scoring RB1 in a long time. It’s just hard to do it without significant receiving production.
What are his chances? If Ryan Tannehill regresses to what he’s been over his career and the Titans rush the ball a lot (like, a lot a lot), there’s a path for Henry. But man is it a difficult one.
The longer shots
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
If you wanted to argue Elliott over Henry, I wouldn’t fight hard — Elliott definitely has more of a role in the receiving game. The problem for Elliott is just competition for touches. Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup are both back. Blake Jarwin should replace Jason Witten’s departed targets. CeeDee Lamb is a big improvement on Randall Cobb. And Tony Pollard has a year under his belt and could be in line for more work. It’s possible Elliott just doesn’t get the workload necessary for an overall RB1.
Why would he not make it? Workload. If Lamb, Cooper, and Gallup combine for 300 targets and Pollard gets 100 touches himself, is there going to be enough left for Elliott?
What are his chances? Not terrible. Elliott is still Elliott, and it’s not likely for the team to just ignore him. But the workload questions knock him down a bit.
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
Tell me Cook is healthy for 16 games and Alexander Mattison doesn’t have a giant workload, and I’d bump him up to the second tier. But Cook has missed multiple games all three years in the league (playing 29 of a possible 48 so far). He was the No. 2 back in PPG last year, but his two missed games knocked him down to RB6.
Why would he not make it? Injury, or if not injury, workload management. Mattison was good last year, and Mike Boone was fine as a No. 3. The Vikings are likely to be run-heavy, but there’s no real reason for them to run Cook into the ground with so many competent alternatives.
What are his chances? If Cook comes out in the first two weeks with 20-plus carries, 8-plus targets, and a couple hundred-yard games, and he doesn’t have any injury concerns, I’d bump him way up. But it’s hard to picture the Vikings leaning on the brittle Cook that heavily.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Mixon isn’t necessarily a favorite to be a top-five finisher, but if things break right, it’s not that hard to envision an overall RB1 scenario. After all, this promises to be an ascending offense, but it also has a rookie quarterback who isn’t a sure thing. Is there a world where Burrow is just good enough to keep the Bengals powerful without being so good that the overall offense is amazing? Combined with a defense that is going to be very bad, meaning shootouts? Sure, that’s a world that could exist.
Why would he not make it? So many things would have to break exactly right. Good but not too good. Bad but not too bad. It’s a tough sell. That doesn’t make it a no-sell, but it’s a tough sell.
What are his chances? Obviously not great. But I don’t think it’s as crazy a notion as it seems at first blush.
The top 20 running backs on (very subjective) likelihood of finishing as RB1 only
1. Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
2. Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
3. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
4. Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
5. Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
6. Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
7. Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
8. Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars
9. David Johnson, Houston Texans
10. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs
11. Todd Gurley, Atlanta Falcons
12. Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
13. Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals
14. Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
15. Le’Veon Bell, New York Jets
16. Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
17. Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
18. Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
19. Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks
20. Matt Breida, Miami Dolphins