The candidates to be 2020’s overall fantasy TE1
Running backs never repeat as the position’s top fantasy football performer. Quarterbacks do sometimes. Wide receivers do it a bit more. Tight ends? They do it all the time.
That’s not perfectly accurate, but it’s not that far off. In the last 10 years, there have only been four TE1 finishers. In the last nine years, only three. The last time someone not named Kelce, Gronkowski, or Graham finished as the top fantasy tight end was Jason Witten in 2010.
Obviously, a player doesn’t have to finish as the No. 1 at his position to be valuable. But there’s a special feeling in having that No. 1 player. So this week, I’ve been trying to handicap the chances players have to finish atop their positions. (Check out the quarterback, running back, and wide receiver pieces.) Today, it’s the tight ends. Remember, for this exercise, second place is just as valuable as 50th. This is first, and first only.
The prototype
Over the last 10 years, this has been the average production of the No. 1 fantasy tight end:
The tight ends are, by and large, similar to the wide receivers (130-plus targets, about 90 receptions, double-digit touchdowns or close), with the exception of yardage. Every No. 1 receiver in the last decade but one had at least 1,400 yards; no tight end has ever had that many yards. Still, it’s a pretty clear template — that level of usage, and as much yardage as you can wring.
The favorites
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
It feels boring, but you pretty much have to say Kelce is the favorite. Even now at 30 years old, he’s shown no real sign of deterioration, finishing as the top fantasy tight end each of the top four years … and he’s even been improving. He averaged 84 receptions, 1,081.5 yards, and 6.0 touchdowns in 2016-2017, then 100, 1,232.5, and 7.5 in 2018-2019. There will be a cliff eventually, but we might not be there yet.
Why would he not make it? He turns 31 in October, so that’s noteworthy. The Chiefs still have a massive cast of weapons, and added a potentially electric running back in Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Could there be a mouths-to-feed issue? Sure, possibly.
What are his chances? Obviously still strong. If you’re picking between Kelce and the field, you’d take the field, but not by that much.
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
On a per-game basis, Kelce and Kittle were equals in 2019 (15.894 PPG for Kelce, 15.893 for Kittle), with the obvious dividing factor being Kittle’s two missed games. But if you assume Kittle will stay healthy this year, then he’s right on Kelce’s footing.
Why would he not make it? Is there still room for Kittle to improve from a fantasy perspective? He’s such an insanely good blocker, and the 49ers have so many other offensive weapons, that he might not have room to improve for fantasy. Add in the fact that Jimmy Garoppolo is not the most pass-happy of quarterbacks, and there just might not be quite the ceiling in Kittle’s game.
What are his chances? Remember a few paragraphs ago, when I said you should take the field in a “Kelce vs. the field” question? If you expand the question to “Kelce or Kittle vs. the field,” you probably take these two.
The second tier
Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders loaded up on pass-catching options this offseason, signing Nelson Agholor and Jason Witten and drafting Henry Ruggs, Lynn Bowden, and Bryan Edwards. Despite all that, Waller is the best pass-catcher on the Las Vegas roster. After 178 career yards in four seasons before 2019, he had 1,145 last year, although only 3 touchdowns.
Why would he not make it? He’d need to score more than he showed last year, and with the new mouths in the Las Vegas offense that might be tough. Witten’s arrival and further development from Foster Moreau could take his targets. And the new receivers could do so as well.
What are his chances? He might see a decrease in targets. Then again, he might not. He was arguably the biggest breakout of 2019, and even at that there’s room to grow. He’d need some sort of slide from Kelce/Kittle, but the chances are there.
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles
Ertz dropped 21 targets from 2018 to 2019, more than a target per game. Then again, he set the all-time TE target record in 2018, so there was room to maneuver. The more damning problems were the drops in his yards per target (7.5 down to 6.8), catch percentage (74.4% to 65.2) and touchdowns (8 to 6). Still, he was one target behind Kelce for the league-lead last year, 18 more than anyone else.
Why would he not make it? The development of Dallas Goedert hurt Ertz’ target total. Jalen Reagor arriving as well should do that as well. Given the quantity/quality dichotomy in his game, Ertz needs the target total to be a top finisher.
What are his chances? I can’t really see it. Unless Ertz is getting 150-ish targets, it’s hard to find a path to No. 1, and it’s hard to find a path to 150 for him in 2020.
Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Welcome back, Gronk. It’s been five years now since he’s been the Gronk we got used to (though he wasn’t far off in 2017). But he’s now in the best offense he’s ever been in, with more weapons than he’s ever been surrounded by. He’s just so interesting.
Why would he not make it? Oh, so many reasons. He turns 31 in less than two weeks and hasn’t played football in a year. His quarterback is the approximate age of turtles and in a new offense. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will be offensive weapons.
What are his chances? Here’s the thing. I have Gronkowski ranked seventh at the tight end position. But I don’t really think that’s a likely finish for him. If he’s the older guy he could easily be, and/or if Brady is, Gronk could be a low-end TE2, or a guy who is benched by Week 4. But if he and Brady are the combo of old, there is definitely a spot where he could be the TE1. Likely? No. But definitely possible.
The longer shots
Evan Engram, New York Giants
The only thing working against Engram so far in his career is health; he played 15 games as a rookie in 2017, then 11 in 2018, then 8 last year. But his per-game yardage has actually improved each year (48.1 to 52.5 to 58.4). If he can put all that together and stay healthy for 16 games, there’s a path.
Why would he not make it? We’ve not only heard that Engram can’t stay healthy; we’ve heard that the Giants are concerned he’ll never be able to stay healthy. And now the Giants actually have a worthwhile receiving corps.
What are his chances? If you told me he was going to play 16 games, I’d at least have put him in the second tier. But that’s a big ask.
Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers
Henry was electric as a rookie and in his second year, despite missing three combined games. And then he missed all of his 2018 season, and then he missed a good chunk of 2019 (and perhaps should have missed more). He did go on to set a career-high in yards (both total and per-game), now that Antonio Gates is gone. Huge question as to what Justin Herbert can do, but Henry has enormous potential.
Why would he not make it? He’s never played 16 games, not topped 5 touchdowns since 2016, has a huge question mark at quarterback, and has several competent pass-catchers around him. There are plenty of reasons why he might not.
What are his chances? There exists a scenario where Hunter Henry is the next Travis Kelce, out there getting 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns and being the Baby Gronk people thought he’d be. There are many, many other scenarios where he’s not that, but it does exist, even if it isn’t that likely.
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
Andrews had 10 touchdowns on only 98 targets last year, making the most of his opportunities. In his favor is the departure of Hayden Hurst. But that efficiency … it’s hard to imagine him being as efficient again, let alone more efficient.
Why would he not make it? Guys don’t score on 10% of their targets once. And the ones who do it once don’t do it more than once. Andrews’ usage is so low relative to the rest of the big names at the position that it’s hard to picture him getting the work.
What are his chances? The only real path is if Andrews literally gets literally all of Hurst’s departed 39 targets and a few from elsewhere. And with the arrival of J.K. Dobbins and Devin Duvernay, that’s a hard sell.
The top 20 tight ends on (very subjective) likelihood of finishing as TE1 only
1. Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
2. George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
3. Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders
4. Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles
5. Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6. Evan Engram, New York Giants
7. Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers
8. Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
9. Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins
10. Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams
11. Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints
12. T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions
13. Hayden Hurst, Atlanta Falcons
14. Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns
15. Blake Jarwin, Dallas Cowboys
16. Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers
17. Noah Fant, Denver Broncos
18. Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts
19. Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings
20. Jace Sternberger, Green Bay Packers