NFL power rankings for 2020
For all intents and purposes, we know the NFL rosters for 2020. There will be some changes, maybe some trades, maybe Cam Newton finds a home, but the chances there are dramatic roster upheavals over the next four months (or longer if, you know, there’s no season on time) are slim.
So that means we can start the process of ranking teams. Today, I’m sorting the teams out for 2020, first into tiers and then within the tiers. This is not the final rankings or 2020 predictions, but it’s helpful to offer an early look at where the teams stand heading into the question marks ahead.
There are four tiers:
Contenders for the No. 1 pick (4)
Bad-but-not-awful teams (12)
Playoff contenders (12)
Super Bowl contenders (4)
Obviously, there are some gray areas at the borders. There are some bad teams who will end up contending for the No. 1 pick. There are some playoff contenders who will end up as Super Bowl contenders. But this is a strong framework for an early-May look.
Tier 4: Contenders for the No. 1 pick
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
Low-end record: 1-15
High-end record: 6-10
The Jaguars have pretty clearly turned their eyes to 2021 and beyond, dealing off their expensive-but-older defensive pieces that were the basis of their contender in 2017, letting Nick Foles go after one year under contract, and getting a couple extra 2021 picks in the Jalen Ramsey trade. Unless Gardner Minshew can run Minshew Mania back for another year, this is the early favorite in the Tank for Trevor sweepstakes.
31. Carolina Panthers
Low-end record: 2-14
High-end record: 6-10
Only a five-hour drive from Jacksonville, Carolina is also doing its best Tank for Trevor efforts … except they also signed a veteran quarterback (Teddy Bridgewater) to a big-money deal, extended their running back for all the money, and signed a wide receiver who turns 27 this coming Saturday. In other words, I don’t really understand the Panthers’ strategy … but they’re gonna be bad.
30. Washington
Low-end record: 1-15
High-end record: 7-9
Washington could bottom out below Carolina, but the team’s baseline should be slightly better. A lot of it is going to come down to how Dwayne Haskins does in Year 2. (Please, Ron Rivera, don’t start Kyle Allen.) There are about a hundred different “could work out” pieces in this offense, but no sure things outside of Terry McLaurin. Oh, and they desperately need a tight end.
29. New York Giants
Low-end record: 3-13
High-end record: 9-7
If everything breaks perfect for the Giants this year, they could not only push their way into the next tier, they could even push up to the “playoff contenders” one. But between Daniel Jones’ question marks and a defense that we can’t really trust yet, there’s a huge bottom end. The team should at the very least offer plenty of fantasy intrigue, between Saquon Barkley, the receivers, and Evan Engram-when-healthy.
Tier 3: Bad-but-not-awful teams
28. Atlanta Falcons
Low-end record: 4-12
High-end record: 9-7
I’m sad the Falcons appear to be wasting the end of Julio Jones’ peak. And admittedly, there are interesting pieces here (if Laquon Treadwell grabs the No. 3 receiver job, the Falcons could start 11 first-round picks on offense). But there are just too many question marks.
27. Los Angeles Rams
Low-end record: 5-11
High-end record: 8-8
It’s a fairly precipitous fall for a Rams team that was in the Super Bowl 15 months ago. But the offensive line has gone in the tank, the team let one of the game’s best defensive coordinators in Wade Phillips go, and there are no reinforcements coming from the draft or free agency. Only residual positive feelings about Sean McVay should still have you excited about the Rams.
26. Chicago Bears
Low-end record: 4-12
High-end record: 9-7
Jameis Winston signed for a million bucks. Andy Dalton signed for $7 million. Cam Newton can’t even find a job. And yet the Bears traded an actual asset for Nick Foles and his $22 million a year. That’s ludicrous … as is the decision to bring in Jimmy Graham and draft Cole Kmet when the team already has 147 tight ends (approximately) … as is the decision to sign Ted Ginn when he is essentially Cordarrelle Patterson with a much shorter name. I do not care for the direction the Bears have gone in, is what I’m saying.
25. Las Vegas Raiders
Low-end record: 4-12
High-end record: 9-7
I would be interested in seeing what the Raiders could do in any other division in the league, but sitting there with the Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos is a tough pull. That said, I don’t think the team would be good in any division. The defense has too many holes, the quarterback is too average-or-below, the coach is too … Grudeny. I just can’t see a path for the Raiders to be anything but “frustratingly disappointing” in 2020.
24. New York Jets
Low-end record: 4-12
High-end record: 10-6
The thing is, I can absolutely see a path for the Jets to be decent in 2020. Sam Darnold, backed by a revamped O-line, takes a step forward. Le’Veon Bell rebounds. An admittedly decent defense gets stronger. A bad division gives them ample opportunity. There are lots of ways to do it. But can all of that happen at once, especially given a paucity of impressive offensive weapons and the most disappointing coach in the league? It’s hard to envision.
23. Cincinnati Bengals
Low-end record: 3-13
High-end record: 10-6
If Joe Burrow struggles, the Bengals have no Plan B. Ryan Finley certainly isn’t it. A.J. Green missed all of last year and has missed multiple games in four of the last six years. John Ross and Auden Tate have battled injury. The defense is still likely to be terrible, and while the offensive line is headed in the right direction, there are more question marks than sure things. I like the direction the Bengals are headed in, but there’s still work to be done.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers
Low-end record: 3-13
High-end record: 10-6
The Steelers are going to have a good defense. The offense is the question. Ben Roethlisberger is 38 now and looked bad even before getting hurt last year. JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner both took a step back in 2019 (admittedly with huge question marks at quarterback). The offensive line is only getting older. The Patriots going into maybe-rebuild mode is the headline in the AFC, but the Steelers aren’t far from that themselves.
21. Tennessee Titans
Low-end record: 5-11
High-end record: 11-5
If Ryan Tannehill can do in 2020 what he did in 2019, I’m wrong here. But that’s a huge if, given we’ve never seen him do anything like that before and the offensive line (with the departure of Jack Conklin) is going to help him less. This is a very, very average team, with a nice everything-breaks-right top end — like we saw in 2019.
20. Minnesota Vikings
Low-end record: 6-10
High-end record: 11-5
The entire Justin Jefferson situation has been intriguing to me. Everyone and their brother had him pegged to go to Minnesota in the draft as a de facto Stefon Diggs replacement, despite the fact that Jefferson’s No. 1 strength is working out of the slot, and (a) that’s also Adam Thielen’s No. 1 strength, and (b) the Vikings use three-receiver sets less than any other team in the league (literally ran only 83 snaps out of 11 personnel in 2019, 25 fewer than any other team). I liked the team’s draft strategy as far as accumulating picks, but I don’t love the roster that it has put together.
19. Miami Dolphins
Low-end record: 4-12
High-end record: 11-5
The Dolphins are still probably a year away from real contention, but things have really gone in the right direction. A lot of it is going to come down to how healthy/capable Tua Tagovailoa is (and/or how Ryan Fitzpatrick performs if Tua isn’t ready), but the defense has a chance to be sneaky-improved, adding Byron Jones and Noah Igbinoghene to returning-from-injury Xavien Howard to make what could be an elite secondary.
18. Houston Texans
Low-end record: 5-11
High-end record: 11-5
The Texans have a decent coach but are unfortunately saddled with an awful GM. That phrasing looks different when you remember the same guy is both of those things, but the important part is that it’s true: Bill O’Brien is a pretty reasonable coach. And Deshaun Watson will only allow to team to slide so far. But a bad bell-cow running back replacing maybe the game’s best receiver is just a dealbreaker.
17. New England Patriots
Low-end record: 3-13
High-end record: 11-5
If the Jarrett Stidham/Brian Hoyer quarterback situation performs like, well, like you’d expect a Jarrett Stidham/Brian Hoyer duo to perform, especially considering the Patriots’ overall underwhelming slate of offensive weapons and the departure of Dante Scarnecchia as offensive line coach, this team could genuinely contend for first overall pick. Bill Belichick and the still-strong defense should hold that off, but there is still a wide range of possible outcomes for this year’s Patriots team.
Tier 2: Playoff contenders
16. Detroit Lions
Low-end record: 6-10
High-end record: 12-4
The Lions were off to a good start last year if you ignore like a play a game. They should have beaten the Cardinals in Week 1 (tied 27-27). They should have beaten the Chiefs in Week 4 (lost 34-30 and gave up a fumble recovery touchdown when they should have scored themselves). They should have beaten the Packers in Week 6 (lost 23-22 on a last-second field goal). Obviously what happened happened, but there’s a don’t-even-have-to-squint-hard situation where the Lions started 2019 5-0 or 6-1. It all went off the rails after that, with Kerryon Johnson and (more importantly) Matthew Stafford missing time to injury, but this was a team that started better than you probably remember. Take what should have been a decent team and add some new pieces for 2020, and there’s potential to save Matt Patricia’s job here.
15. Los Angeles Chargers
Low-end record: 5-11
High-end record: 12-4
Take out the quarterback position, and this team has a chance to be really elite. The defense is strong, the running back/wide receiver/wide receiver/tight end grouping is excellent, the offensive line is improving. But the quarterback is either Tyrod Taylor — who was bad the last time he saw playing time, and that was two years ago — or Justin Herbert — who the team was kind of backed into drafting at sixth and might not be good. That means there’s a huge range of outcomes here.
14. Indianapolis Colts
Low-end record: 7-9
High-end record: 12-4
It’s hard to imagine this offensive line, this defense, this coach falling flat. But Philip Rivers is an enormous question mark at this point in his career, and while Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell are both fascinating second and third receivers, there aren’t a lot of sure things in this receiver corps. If everything breaks right, the Colts could not only win the AFC South, they could be the top seed. But that would require a lot to go right.
13. Dallas Cowboys
Low-end record: 6-10
High-end record: 11-5
The Cowboys have a lower low end than the Colts and a lower high end. So why do I have them higher overall? Because the baseline, I think, is higher. This has a chance to be comfortably the game’s best offense, and while the defense is going to take a step back, if things break right this is back to being a playoff team.
12. Philadelphia Eagles
Low-end record: 7-9
High-end record: 12-4
The Eagles and Cowboys are close to the same team for what feels like the millionth year in a row. Now that the Eagles have what should be at least a marginally improved group of receivers, I feel like they are very slight favorites in the NFC East, but I wouldn’t argue for even a second with anyone who arranged them the other way.
11. Denver Broncos
Low-end record: 5-11
High-end record: 12-4
This team all comes down to Drew Lock. The defense isn’t as good as it was in its Super Bowl season, but it has a chance to be very good nonetheless. The offensive line is no sure thing, but it’s not going to be a disaster. But the weapons, man. Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay might be the best top two duo at running back in the league, and while the pass-catching weapons are all young (24-year-old Courtland Sutton is the oldest one who will see much playing time), there is insane upside here. The range of outcomes? It all depends on how good Lock can be.
10. Buffalo Bills
Low-end record: 7-9
High-end record: 11-5
Josh Allen isn’t very good. I know there will be blowback on that, but it’s basically true. He’s better than I expected him to be at the start of his career, but that’s also not saying very much. So the Bills are just doing the best they can, surrounding him with as many weapons as possible. This offseason, that meant Stefon Diggs and Zack Moss added to the arrangement. Really, this is the same as the Broncos situation, only Allen’s floor is higher than Lock’s and his ceiling is a bit lower.
9. Green Bay Packers
Low-end record: 5-11
High-end record: 12-4
When a bad team has a questionable offseason, well, it’s a bad team, what did you expect? But the Packers were good. They might not have been quite as good as their record indicated, but they were definitely a good team last year, and that’s why this offseason has been so frustrating. It’s hard to imagine this team totally falling apart (though it is within the realm of possibility), but it’s also really hard to envision the Packers as genuine Super Bowl contenders either. And that’s a shame for the back half of a Hall of Fame quarterback’s career.
8. Cleveland Browns
Low-end record: 7-9
High-end record: 13-3
Maybe I’m the insane guy going back to the well again, but the Browns’ biggest weakness last year was the line, and adding Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills to that, plus Austin Hooper at tight end and Andy Janovich at fullback, could fix that problem all by itself. The coaching switch from Freddie Kitchens to Kevin Stefanski should be massive as well. Maybe the Browns are just a year late on the development?
7. Arizona Cardinals
Low-end record: 6-10
High-end record: 12-4
An extra year for Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray is significant. Adding DeAndre Hopkins to that is, uh, significant-er. Isaiah Simmons could be a massive addition to the defense, and Josh Jones at tackle was an absolute steal in the third round of the draft — he should have gone off the board in the middle of the first. The team is still in an excellent division, which could be a big complicating factor, but there is huge upside in Arizona.
6. Seattle Seahawks
Low-end record: 8-8
High-end record: 13-3
Russell Wilson at quarterback is basically an “automatic eight wins” cheat card. The question just becomes how much better the team can be above that. The answer should be pretty damn good, but the coaching decisions have been so frustrating it might not be. Still, “Wilson” equals “good.”
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Low-end record: 5-11
High-end record: 14-2
Is Tom Brady anything like vintage Tom Brady? Is Rob Gronkowski anything like vintage Rob Gronkowski? Is Bruce Arians anything like vintage Bruce Arians? If the answer to the first is yes, this is an above-.500 team. If the answers to the first and second are yes, this is a playoff contender. If the answers to all three are yes, this could be the best team in the NFC. (Don’t sleep on the Tampa Bay defense; it could be elite.)
Tier 1: Super Bowl contenders
4. San Francisco 49ers
Low-end record: 9-7
High-end record: 13-3
Is it just me, or have the 49ers basically treaded water this offseason? If that? Swapping out DeForest Buckner for first-rounder Javon Kinlaw might be a long-term net gain, but it probably makes the defense slightly worse for 2020. Swapping out Emmanuel Sanders for first-rounder Brandon Aiyuk is a good move, but it definitely has downside. Matt Breida is gone, but Jerick McKinnon should be back. I hate when a team makes the Super Bowl and appears to proceed as though everything good will stay good and everything bad will improve, but that is about what San Francisco did this offseason. This is still a very good team, but I would have liked to see more aggressiveness this offseason.
3. Baltimore Ravens
Low-end record: 10-6
High-end record: 15-1
Lamar Jackson isn’t likely to be as good in 2020 as he was in 2019, simply because he really can’t be. Marshal Yanda’s departure hurts, and the team’s refusal to significantly upgrade the receiver corps is also going to be a problem. But it’s all nitpicking. The Ravens are about as safe a division champion as any team in the league.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
Low-end record: 10-6
High-end record: 15-1
The Chiefs are still a bit lacking on the defensive side, but that obviously didn’t hurt them much last year. It’s still maybe (probably?) the game’s best offense, and it added Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who will fix the worst part of that offense from last year. Even in what promises to be a very good AFC West, the Chiefs enter the season as heavy divisional favorites.
1. New Orleans Saints
Low-end record: 9-7
High-end record: 15-1
Because there are tiny question marks around Drew Brees, the Saints actually do have a lower floor than the other elite teams. But they should have the highest baseline in the league. What is the weak spot here? If you wanted to be hot-takey, you could actually argue it is the age of Brees, and they’ve supplemented that back end with a backup duo of Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill that is comfortably the best non-starting QB situation in the league. And given the chances of an abbreviate (or nonexistent) training camp/preseason, the insane continuity this team has must be a help. The big addition — Emmanuel Sanders — should have as easy a time acclimating to a new quarterback and a new offense as anyone, given that we just saw him do exactly that midseason last year. I can’t really find a weakness on this roster. If you made me pick a Super Bowl right now, it’d be Saints over Chiefs.