The candidates to be 2020’s overall fantasy QB1
If you draft a starter a fantasy football, you made a good pick. Even if you take a guy first overall and he finishes 10th at the position, it’s fine. It might not be perfect, but you haven’t thrown your season away.
But there’s special value to finishing first overall. If you draft a guy first and he finishes first, good job! If you draft a guy 30th and he finishes first, congratulations, please tell us what name you would like engraved on the trophy.
So over the next few days, now that we know the most important parts of every team’s roster, I want to handicap the chances players have of finishing at the very top of their position. For this exercise, second place is the same as 40th. If you ain’t first, your last. This is handicapping first place, and just first place.
The prototype
Over the last 10 years, this is the average performance of the No. 1 fantasy quarterback:
The word “average” is doing a lot of work there. It includes Lamar Jackson’s 2019 (176 rushes, 1,206 rushing yards) and Peyton Manning’s 2013 (32 rushes, -31 rushing yards). It includes Patrick Mahomes’ 2018 (417.1 points) and Michael Vick’s 2010 (310.3 points). But it gives you a framework. A quarterback needs around 40 touchdown passes and some healthy rushing production to have a shot here, and if he isn’t going to give you one of those, he needs to be that much better at the other things.
The favorites
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
I handicapped the chances of these two finishing No. 1 earlier this offseason. The simple truth is that it’ll be something of an upset if the 2020 No. 1 isn’t one of the two, and which specific one you prefer is as much a case of personal preference as anything. I landed on Jackson as the favorite, but I wouldn’t fight anyone who disagreed.
Why would either one not make it? If we assume health (which you kind of have to for this exercise), then for Jackson it would be rushing regression combined with exposing the deficiencies of his receiving corps, and for Mahomes it would be basically just bad luck. A quarterback needs to have the good fortune to account for the majority of his team’s touchdowns down close (either he runs it in or gets the touchdown pass). Both of these guys’ teams added a high-profile running back in the draft, so we’ll see if that hurts their respective upsides.
What are their chances? Like I said above, these two are combined the heavy favorites. If you had to pick “Jackson/Mahomes” or the field to finish No. 1, you’d probably be silly to bet against these two.
The second tier
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Murray was the No. 3 quarterback in my rankings until Dak Prescott and the Cowboys landed CeeDee Lamb in the draft, but for this exercise, he remains there. Murray’s chances at the top slot are elevated because of his rushing ability. If he has anything like a Lamar Jackson 2019 as a rusher, he’s got an enormous head start in the race for No. 1.
Why would he not make it? His rookie season was a roaring success from a fantasy perspective, and he only totaled 285.3 points. He’s need to bump that production by about 100 points to even really be in the conversation. The arrival of DeAndre Hopkins, improvement on the line, and a year of maturation could make that happen, but it requires a lot.
What are his chances? Not great, just because it would require such a leap. But if you’re picking a member of the field, he’s the member you should opt for.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
I don’t think Prescott has quite the ceiling of Murray, but it’s really splitting hairs, and he definitely has the higher floor. He now has arguably the best 1-2-3 slate of receivers in the league, and the defense took some hits this offseason, marginally increasing the chances at shootouts in Dallas.
Why would he not make it? Prescott set career lows in rushing attempts, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns (marginally on all three, but still). He’d likely need career highs in all those to have a real shot at the top. Can he make another leap? It seems difficult.
What are his chances? I doubt they’re great, really. From a fantasy perspective, almost everything broke right for Prescott in 2019, and he finished second at the position in fantasy scoring, but it was still only 337.8 points. That wouldn’t have been good enough for the top slot any year since 2010.
The longer shots
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
There are three quarterbacks with enough rushing upside to do what Jackson did last year. The first, obviously, is Jackson himself. The aforementioned Murray is the second. Allen is the third. Over the last two years (Allen’s two in the league), he’s the only non-Jackson quarterback with more than 1,000 rushing yards (at 1,141), and his 17 rushing scores are five more than anyone else, and eight more than anyone but Jackson and Deshaun Watson.
Why would he not make it? Well, he’s still not much of a passer. In 28 career games, he still hasn’t thrown for even 270 in a game yet. He only has two games with more than two passing scores. The average passing yardage of the top quarterback is 4,316.8, which works out to roughly 270 a game. So Allen would likely need to average better than his career-best passing yardage to have more than an outside chance.
What are his chances? The arrival of Stefon Diggs has to help Allen’s passing upside, but there’s only so much one guy can help. I just can’t envision him passing for enough yardage to make it.
Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
If I had performed this exercise at the start of the offseason, Watson probably would have been third on the list. Since then, his team traded away arguably the league’s best wide receiver, added a running back who promises to get major workload (for better or worse), and replaced that receiver with a handful of lesser options.
Why would he not make it? Well, the stuff above. The Texans more or less cut Watson’s fantasy potential off at the ankles. He still has a massive floor, but you really need DeAndre Hopkins in order to realize a ceiling.
What are his chances? If Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb play to their respective ceilings, Will Fuller and Kenny Stills stay healthy and productive, and David Johnson continues to struggle like he did last year, it’s not crazy to imagine. But Watson would need a lot to go right.
The top 20 quarterbacks on (very subjective) likelihood of finishing as QB1 only
1. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
2. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
3. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
4. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
5. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
6. Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
7. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
8. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
9. Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
10. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
11. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
12. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
13. Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles
14. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
15. Drew Lock, Denver Broncos
16. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
17. Daniel Jones, New York Giants
18. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
19. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
20. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins