The biggest fantasy fallers over the second half of 2019

In the last decade, the most PPR points over the first two weeks of a season belong to … Ryan Fitzpatrick and his 72.3 points in Weeks 1-2 of 2018 as part of that ridiculous Tampa Bay offense. Jahvid Best ranks third on the list, with 70.8 points in Weeks 1-2 of 2010. Miles Austin, Kenny Britt, and John Ross all appear in the top 30.

To be sure, the list is populated with massive names as well. In addition to Fitzpatrick and Best, the top five belong to Kareem Hunt (2017), Michael Thomas, and Patrick Mahomes (both 2018). Odds are good that if you start that hot, you are (a) good, and (b) a favorite to keep it going. But it’s no guarantee. Fitzpatrick was benched only a few weeks after his big start. Best had five touchdowns over his first two career games, then scored one more the rest of the year (despite playing all 16 games).

Early hot streaks can color the impressions of a full season. We remember Ross’ breakout last year, but the truth really is that he had 270 yards and 3 touchdowns in Weeks 1-2, then 236 and 0 in six games the rest of the way, only topping 42 yards one other time. You put yourself on the map early, you can coast on a new reputation.

Tuesday, I took a look at the players who saw their PPG averages rise the most over the second half of the 2019 season. Today, I’m looking at the inverse, the players who dropped off the most from Weeks 1-8 to Weeks 9-16 (at least four games played in each half), and what that might mean for their 2020 stock.

David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals

Weeks 1-8: 17.4 PPG
Weeks 9-16: 3.7 PPG
Difference: -13.7

Johnson came out strong last year, the No. 6 fantasy RB through Week 6. He had five touchdowns in that time. Then he got banged up, Chase Edmonds got hot, Kenyan Drake arrived, and from Week 7 on, Johnson had 102 total scrimmage yards and only a lowly one more touchdown. He wasn’t exactly playing great early, but the results were there. Now heading into 2020, we don’t know what team he’ll be on, whether he’ll be a starter, and whether he has any juice left as a 28-year-old with a lengthening injury history. Buyer beware.

Tevin Coleman, RB, San Francisco 49ers

Weeks 1-8: 16.7 PPG
Weeks 9-16: 6.2 PPG
Difference: -10.5

Coleman kind of sneaked onto tis list. He only played five games in the first half, but that fifth one was his massive four-touchdown game against Carolina in Week 8, accounting for more than half of his seven scores last year. As the year went on, Matt Breida, Raheem Mostert, and even Jeff Wilson made appearances for the 49ers. It seems like Coleman is going to have a battle on his hands to even see significant run in 2020.

Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams

Weeks 1-8: 21.0 PPG
Weeks 9-16: 11.4 PPG
Difference: -9.6

Kupp’s 2019 went almost 100% the opposite of how I guessed it would. With the receiver coming off a late-2018 ACL tear, I thought he might get off to a slow start as he worked on his recovery, only to come on strong late. Instead, he had 100-plus yards five times in the first eight games (including a 220-yard game against the Bengals in Week 8) before tailing off late. In Weeks 9-16, Kupp never topped 65 yards, including a catchless Week 10, as Robert Woods did more work. Still Kupp scored in each of his last five games. Maybe he’s not the absolute monster he was early, but he’s still a sure starter at receiver.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Green Bay Packers

Weeks 1-8: 9.6 PPG
Weeks 9-16: 0.5 PPG
Difference: -9.1

The question during last draft season was whether MVS or Geronimo Allison would be the No. 2 to Davante Adams on the Green Bay depth chart. Instead, it … really wasn’t anybody. Allen Lazard had the second-most receiving yards but, at 477, it wasn’t exactly a huge number. MVS had 452 yards. Allison had only 287. And Valdes-Scantling really played himself out of the job — he had two big games in the first half (99 yards and a score in Week 3, 133 and a score in Week 7), but didn’t have more than two receptions or 19 yards in a game after Week 7. We don’t know who the Packers’ No. 2 receiver will be in 2020, but no one should be surprised if it ends up being someone who isn’t even on the team right now.

Austin Hooper, TE, Atlanta Falcons

Weeks 1-8: 17.6 PPG
Weeks 9-16: 9.3 PPG
Difference: -8.3

Hooper’s injury came in Week 10, knocking him out for three games and really killing his early-season momentum. He averaged under 5 catches a game after his return, only topping 45 yards once, after a huge first half of the year. Still, his first half was good enough that he’s likely to get paid well in free agency. We’ll have to see where he lands to know exactly how to rank him, but he’s gonna be ranked as a TE1 one way or another.

Tyrell Williams, WR, Oakland Raiders

Weeks 1-8: 16.1 PPG
Weeks 9-16: 7.8 PPG
Difference: -8.3

Williams played in five games in Weeks 1-8, scoring once in each, and then scored only once the rest of the way. That’s really the story. He wasn’t that much better or worse in one half against the other, but the touchdowns came early and then went away. We don’t know who his 2020 quarterback will be, and you’d imagine the Raiders will find another receiver, so Williams is going to be hard to count on.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Weeks 1-8: 13.2 PPG
Weeks 9-16: 5.1 PPG
Difference: -8.1

James Washington appeared in the biggest risers version of this piece, so it makes sense that his teammate had to fall accordingly. It was a disappointing year for JuJu after Antonio Brown’s departure had him going in the top-eight receivers in drafts, but then the Steelers offense overall had a rough year. We have to lower our expectations of JuJu for 2020, but he has a massive ceiling if things break right.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

Weeks 1-8: 21.3 PPG
Weeks 9-16: 13.4 PPG
Difference: -7.9

Rodgers accounted for nine touchdowns in Weeks 7 and 8 against the Raiders and Chiefs, including his lone rushing score of the year. He never accounted for more than five in any other two-game stretch last season, and had 1 or 0 passing scores in six of the seven games he played in Weeks 9-16. Maybe a full healthy season from Davante Adams and/or reinforcements added to the roster for 2020 will help Rodgers rebound, but he is not the top-tier fantasy quarterback he once was.

Phillip Dorsett, WR, New England Patriots

Weeks 1-8: 10.8 PPG
Weeks 9-16: 3.2 PPG
Difference: -7.6

Dorsett was a genuine part of the Patriot offense early, with three-plus catches six times in seven games through Week 8. But that dried up late. He was held without a catch in Weeks 14-16, including not even a target in Weeks 15 and 16. You aren’t touching him in fantasy in 2020.

Sammy Watkins, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Weeks 1-8: 14.5 PPG
Weeks 9-16: 7.1 PPG
Difference: -7.4

This is presented as a first half/second half thing, but for Watkins, it was more of a Week 1/not Week 1 season. He put up more than a third of his season fantasy production in that first game (46.8 points in Week 1, 91.7 the rest of the season), which colored his first half. We know Watkins has a high ceiling (we saw it in Week 1, we saw it in the playoffs), but he’s so unpredictable that you have to feel brave to trust him.