Real-world roster construction and what it means for fantasy (AFC)
One thing that fascinates me (maybe only me?) about the relationship between real and fantasy football is roster construction and deployment. We can debate, especially in auction leagues, the relative merits of stars-and-scrubs versus a balanced roster and the like. Ultimately you can win with any strategy, well executed, and you can lose with any strategy, poorly executed.
That sort of roster construction filters into real teams in some interesting ways. For example, the 2018 Texans got massive production from Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins, then below-average production from the rest of the roster. Meanwhile, the Bears were the opposite, hovering right around average performance at every position.
To test this, I tracked the PPR point totals for the 10 highest-scoring players (or positions, in the case of DST) for each team, and then compared them to the average (for example, comparing Kyler Murray’s 285.3 PPR points to the average score of every team’s top scorer — 279.8). The percentage (in Murray’s case, 102.0%) would offer a point of comparison, and then we can look at how a team progresses down the line — i.e., if a team has a top player at 140%, but a fifth-best player at 65%, that’s a stars-and-scrubs roster, but if it goes from 98% to 106%, that’s more balanced.
How can you use this for fantasy? Well, it varies. Sometimes, it’s just a triviality (“Huh, Team X only had three good players last year, but that’s because of any number of extenuating circumstances”), but sometimes it’s an indication. For example, as much potential as we might think a Keke Coutee or Duke Johnson might have, is there really a scenario where they’re going to be a real fantasy factor? The Texans haven’t had a very diversified roster, and while Hopkins’ departure could change that up a bit, we still aren’t diving deep in Houston.
Today, I’ll look division-by-division at the AFC. Friday, I’ll hit the NFC. Some of the teams will get a brief mention, while others will take more time.
(The graphs below track the percentage of each team’s player to the average at that ranking slot — how much above or below was a given player from the average of all the other players at a similar ranking leaguewide. For example, the No. 1 slot on the Cardinals would read 102.0%.)
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Somehow, the Bills were the only AFC East team to have a top scorer (Josh Allen) rise above 100% — the entire division (40 slots’ worth of players) only had a number above 100% eight times. The Bills, though, were ridiculously balanced. Each of the team’s 1-9 slots hovered between 84% and 103.1%, with only the team’s No. 10 scorer (little-used wide receiver Duke Williams) coming in low (54.7%). The arrival of Stefon Diggs, theoretical rises of Devin Singletary and Dawson Knox, and fall of Frank Gore should all combine to make this a pretty balanced team again in 2020. Ultimately, that means that there aren’t a lot of obvious truly huge fantasy contributors in Buffalo, but there are plenty of weekly helpers.
Miami Dolphins
This was the team of DeVante Parker (No. 1) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (No. 2), and not much else. After those two, the only slots to even hit 80% of average were No. 7 (Allen Hurns, 82.5%) and No. 10 (DST, 83.9%). Further development for Mike Gesicki and the fact that the team has to get something out of the backfield means there will be more fantasy options in 2020, but don’t look deep here.
New England Patriots
The Patriots have been one of the reliably deepest teams for fantasy production in recent vintage around the league. Last year, the team’s worst offensive one in a while, still featured at least 86% of the average production at every slot 1-7 (Tom Brady, Julian Edelman, the DST, James White, Sony Michel, Rex Burkhead, and Phillip Dorsett), with Edelman, the DST, White, and Michel outscoring their respective averages. Now, Brady’s departure and whatever else might shake out in New England this offseason means we have no idea what that means for next year. Stay tuned.
New York Jets
The Jets had a real bad offense last year. You knew that. Le’Veon Bell shouldn’t be awful next year, and there’s reason for mild Sam Darnold optimism, but there’s a reason these percentages are all on the low end.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens felt like a stars-and-scrubs team last year. They were Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, Mark Andrews, and the pips. But really, this was a “rising tide lifts all boats” situation. Marquise Brown would not have been a star for a team’s top producer. But he was No. 5 on the Ravens (behind the above three and the DST). Add in Justin Tucker, and this team was actually shockingly deep for fantasy production.
Cincinnati Bengals
You want a high percentage in this research as often as possible, obviously. Just as obviously, if there’s an area in this study you want a high percentage, it’s near the top of the roster. The Bengals went another way with it, with some awful early numbers (especially once you get past the tip-top of the roster, but surprising depth. With A.J. Green expected back, a better quarterback situation, and (you’d think) a stronger full year from Joe Mixon, the Bengals’ ceiling could rise in 2020, but it might come at the expense of the back end.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns were a team of tiers. At slots 1-4 (Nick Chubb, Jarvis Landry, Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham Jr.), they were good. At slots 5-7 (Austin Seibert, Kareem Hunt, DST), they were not much. At spots 8-10 (Ricky Seals-Jones, Demetrius Harris, Dontrell Hilliard), they were a disaster area. Austin Hooper and a full season of Hunt might help this in 2020, but don’t expect massive depth. The top end could be strong again, though.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers’ leading fantasy scorer last year — the DST, believe it or not — had only 182.0 points, the worst in the league. If we restrict it to just “players,” Diontae Johnson’s 163.1 points led the way. In the last five years, only the 2018 Ravens had a worse score from the No. 1, and that team cycled through two quarterbacks, five running backs, three tight ends, and half a dozen receivers. To be fair, the Steelers did a lot of that last year as well (except at tight end, where Vance McDonald was just bad). You have to assume things will be better for fantasy in the Steel City next year.
AFC South
Houston Texans
The Texans were the Deshaun Watson/DeAndre Hopkins show last year, followed by a huge dropoff, followed by basically all the rest of their players putting up the exact same total. Okay, not exactly, but that’s the essential point here. Watson and Hopkins were better than average, third place (Duke Johnson) was way below, and then it gradually rose as the rest of the team’s weapons (Carlos Hyde, Will Fuller, etc.) all put up similar totals but the standard to compare them to fell off. With Hopkins (lol) and Hyde gone now, Watson should have no trouble being the team’s No. 1 in 2020, but we’re likely looking at a lot of similar scores after that again.
Indianapolis Colts
You know this, but it was a bad season for the Colts from a fantasy (and not-fantasy) perspective last year. In 2020, the team has a new quarterback and hopefully more health from T.Y. Hilton, Parris Campbell, and/or some new name in the offense. So take a quick look at that line up there and then forget it, because it has little bearing on the future.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars were just about the most average team possible for fantasy last year (including Gardner Minshew being the team’s second-highest scorer at 229.2 points, the exact average for all teams’ second-best finishers) through the top eight slots, but Nos. 9 and 10 for the Jags (Ryquell Armstead and James O’Shaughnessy) really fell off. A diminished defense in 2020 (it was the team’s No. 7 scorer) will bring that part down, but there’s an argument it could help the offense as the team finds itself in more shootouts.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans had a star running back, a star half-season quarterback, a breakout wide receiver, and a bunch of role players. It all worked out to a slightly below-average unit across the board, but every percentage came in between 84 and 113% of its slot. It was a pretty average team for fantasy, really, and they’re rolling back all the main pieces for next year.
AFC West
Denver Broncos
Every single team had at least one slot come in above-average (over 100%). The Broncos came the closest to missing the mark, with only 10th-place DaeSean Hamilton beating his expectation, and just barely at that (he had 63.7 points, 10th place averaged 63.2). Courtland Sutton is on the ascent, and if Drew Lock can hold the quarterback position all year that should help, but this team isn’t likely to offer a wealth of fantasy possibility in 2020.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs had easily the deepest fantasy roster last year, the only team to get at least 100 PPR points from 10 different roster slots. Three teams had above 100% at every slot (all in the NFC, so we’ll get there), but the Chiefs were close. Because Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Damien Williams all missed time to injury, the top of the roster floated around average, but once we got to the bottom of the list, they were blowing away the field. It’s easy to imagine a 2020 where some of the above group stay healthy and the team is still deep. Fantasy value (even if it’s just weekly fantasy value) aplenty.
Las Vegas Raiders
Like the Chiefs, the Raiders were deep, with 10th-place Foster Moreau beating expectations and every percentage coming in at 87 or above. Unlike the Chiefs, the Raiders never blew away average, peaking at 108.2%. You’d expect some clear No. 1 receiver on this roster next year to shake up these numbers.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers had the biggest tier dropoff of any team. The team got at least 110% out of each of the first six slots, and 80.9%, 66.7%, 44.1%, and 49.4% from the last four. Put another way: The Chargers’ rankings, by roster rank, were 8, 6, 2, 7, 3, 1 … 32, 31, 32, 31. We’ll see how Tyrod Taylor (or whoever is under center) changes things in 2020, but this is not a team to look to for surprise depth.