Real-world roster construction and what it means for fantasy (NFC)

Thursday, I looked at how you can use real-world roster construction in the AFC to help inform roster-building in fantasy. Some teams are top-heavy and have only a few fantasy options; some are balanced and can give you depth; some were something last year but could change in 2020.

Today, I’m looking at the NFC for the same thing. Below, I’ll go division-by-division and look at how each team’s players’ fantasy production compared to the fantasy production of similar players around the league — i.e., how did a team’s top fantasy producer compare to every teams’ top fantasy producer, and how did a team’s No. 8 fantasy producer compare to every team’s No. 8. Teams that regularly come in above 100% were productive and deep; teams that regularly come in below struggled. Some teams started well above the average and dipped below, indicating a stars-and-scrubs build. Others were below average and climbed above, indicating some deep mediocrity.

I’ll take a look at each team to whatever depth their numbers call for.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys were one of three teams (the other two were both in the NFC South) to come in above 100% at all 10 roster slots. Dallas started strong (the top four — Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup — all came in over 120%) and stayed strong all the way down. The Cowboys are running it largely back in 2020, with Blake Jarwin likely to absorb a lot of Jason Witten’s targets. Randall Cobb’s departure is the most significant here, so maybe the top does a little better to offset that, but ultimately this is a deep offense.

New York Giants

The Giants never fall below 84% at any point, but also barely hit 100% and never top 106. That said, the Giants of 2019 might have little relation to the 2020 version. Saquon Barkley missed three games. Daniel Jones didn’t get the job at first. Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, and Darius Slayton missed a combined 13 games. Evan Engram missed eight. There’s not much reason o expect these percentages are indicative of 2020.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles lacked a monster top end, with Carson Wentz and Miles Sanders slightly below-average at Nos. 1 and 2, but were ridiculously deep. Nelson Agholor had the 10th-most PPR points for the Eagles, at 94.0; the average 10th-best score was 63.2, and only the Chiefs and 49ers had a better No. 10 scorer. We’ll see what the team does at receiver the rest of the offseason, but this should be a deep (if not very top-heavy) roster for 2020 again.

Washington

Certainty at quarterback (Dwayne Haskins or otherwise) and running back (Derrius Guice or otherwise) would have to help Washington’s top end in 2020. The team came in 30th or worse at each of the top six roster spots, and only peeked above 100 at 10th. This is not a team to look to for serious fantasy value, with Terry McLaurin carrying some upside and maybe Guice adding some if he can stay healthy.

NFC North

Chicago Bears

There wasn’t much to excite you for fantasy in Chicago, with occasionally Allen Robinson the exception. But with Nick Foles (probably) taking over as quarterback in 2020, we can’t take much from the team’s 2019 results beyond “Well, Foles ain’t that great either.”

Detroit Lions

Matthew Stafford got hurt and missed eight games. Kerryon Johnson got hurt and missed eight games. Marvin Jones missed three. T.J. Hockenson missed four. We don’t know if the Lions will have a good offense in 2020, but the 2019 version was too banged up to serve as a guide.

Green Bay Packers

It’s okay to be disappointed with how the non-Davante Adams Packers receivers performed in 2019, especially with Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison at least commanding some draft-season attention. But considering the team had a fantasy-relevant quarterback, two fantasy-relevant running backs, and one definitely relevant receiver, the fact that MVS, Allison, Allen Lazard, and Jimmy Graham all put up 75-plus PPR points meant the team was very deep in fringy fantasy options, and if a new receiver doesn’t come in for 2020, those will all be fringy weekly options again.

Minnesota Vikings

Stefon Diggs leaving town really throws this into question. Dalvin Cook (when healthy) and Kirk Cousins are going to be serious fantasy factors, and Adam Thielen should as well. But this certainly looks like a top-heavy roster for 2020.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

Todd Gurley replaces Devonta Freeman for 2020. He obviously has much more upside than the guy he replaces. And the team won’t even get a half-season out of Mohamed Sanu. So this looks like a strong top-heavy team, led by Gurley, Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Calvin Ridley.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers were seriously top-heavy, and would have been even moreso had Cam Newton and/or Greg Olsen stayed healthy. We’ll see how Teddy Bridgewater does in his return to a starting job, but this team’s fantasy options don’t go much beyond Bridgewater, Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, and maybe Curtis Samuel and Ian Thomas.

New Orleans Saints

Here’s another team that stayed above 100% all the way down the line. And that’s interesting, because the team in 2018 was really just “Brees and Kamara and Thomas.” But Kamara missed time, making Latavius Murray relevant. Brees missed time, making Bridgewater occasionally relevant. Jared Cook arrived. This was a very deep team from a full-season perspective. Now, we kind of have to assume more health out of Brees and Kamara for 2020, so we can’t count on that depth again. You’re drafting Brees, Kamara, Thomas, and Cook. You’re drafting Murray as a handcuff. And that’s about it.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

And here’s our other team that stayed above 100% the whole way down. Uncertainty between Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber accounted for some of that. Uncertainty between O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate accounted for more. Injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin accounted for even more. With the team going from the volatile but huge ceiling of Jameis Winston to the less volatile but lower ceiling of Tom Brady, and with Bruce Arians having a year to decide who he trusts in the offense, we can expect slightly less fantasy depth in 2020.*

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

Assuming Kenyan Drake has the starting job in Arizona all year, this team will likely offer less depth (the Cardinals were above 80% at every slot but No. 2) but more of a ceiling, with a full year from Drake and the arrival of DeAndre Hopkins. This could be a top-dominant team in 2020.

Los Angeles Rams

It’s more than fair to call the Rams a disappointing offense in 2019, so long as you acknowledge that expectations were so high that “disappointing” was still more than decent. The team never dipped below 96% at any slot, and offered three receivers and two tight ends with at least occasional fantasy relevance. The door is open for a running back (you’d assume Darrell Henderson) to take the fantasy reins, and maybe Brandin Cooks leaves, but this still should be a deep roster for fantasy purposes.

San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco didn’t offer a huge top end, but was ridiculously deep, with Kendrick Bourne at No. 10 coming in at 154.7% of the average for that roster slot. The 49ers have five running backs (Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida, Jerick McKinnon, Jeff Wilson) to figure out for 2020, plus plenty of receivers after Deebo Samuel. It’s not hard to imagine another ridiculously deep list with (again) possibly not a huge top-end.

Seattle Seahawks

Other than bringing in Greg Olsen at tight end (and, uh, Isaiah Crowell at running back), the Seahawks so far are basically running it back for 2020. And there are worse things, since the team floated close to or above 100% for most of the roster. Russell Wilson, Chris Carson (if healthy), Tyler Lockett, and D.K. Metcalf should all be strong fantasy options once again. How Rashaad Penny and Crowell factor in, and whether Olsen can be a long receiving tight end or if Will Dissly/Jacob Hollister remain relevant, will dictate how deep this team is for fantasy in 2020.