Fantasy winners and losers of early NFL transactions
A day and a half into the free agency “legal tampering” period (still the dumbest term in all of everything), I figure now’s a good time to look at the fantasy football winners and losers so far.
Below, I’ll take a quick look at the moves we have seen reasonably confirmed so far. Basically nothing can be confirmed-confirmed until Wednesday, but it’s hard to imagine some of these not ultimately happening. So no Philip Rivers, no Tom Brady here, even if we think we might know where they end up.
Winners
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
An ascending quarterback gets stability in his coaching staff (never a sure thing these days) and adds, oh, just the best wide receiver in the game. DeAndre Hopkins’ presence makes Murray a top-flight fantasy option.
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
Exactly how good an NFL quarterback Allen is (not very) is a fine topic. For fantasy though, he’s got all sorts of value. And the Bills’ approach of “Well, if he’s not good, let’s Power Ranger him a receiver corps” is a really good one. Adding Stefon Diggs to his group of pass-catchers is a fantastic move for Allen’s value.
Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns
The Browns spent last offseason (and part of this one, with the Austin Hooper signing) bolstering Mayfield’s weapons. But they did so at the expense of the offensive line, and that’s … not the way to do things. So seeing them try to rebuild that in free agency by signing Jack Conklin is a reassuring sign. There’s more to do, but that’s a start. Mayfield might not end up as good as he promised in his rookie year (though he might!), but he’ll be better than he was last year.
Gardner Minshew, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags are going rebuild, but the offense built around Minshew, Leonard Fournette, and D.J. Chark appears to be likely to stay intact. And as the defense gets worse, the team is going to have to pass more to keep up. I think Minshew might be less efficient next year, but the counting numbers should be there.
Jordan Howard, RB, Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins’ leading rusher last year was Literally Ryan Fitzpatrick. Kenyan Drake was bad and then traded, Mark Walton was bad and then released-for-being-a-crap-dude, Kalen Ballage was really bad and then hurt, Patrick Laird was bad and then the season ended. Like Carlos Hyde in Houston last year, a running back wouldn’t have to be good to have fantasy potential, he would just need to, you know, have a pulse. Howard has a pulse. The Dolphins are still likely to add another back this offseason (if they don’t draft someone late, I could see a Howard-and-Dion Lewis pairing working out), but regardless, Howard has low-end RB2 upside now.
David Johnson, RB, Houston Texans
Speaking of last year’s Houston situation, Hyde had his first career 1,000-yard season with the Texans last year largely on the “well, give him a bunch of carries and see what happens” diet. Johnson is very much not the back he was in 2016, but he’s still almost certainly better than Hyde, and he now has a No. 1 job he no longer had in Arizona.
Chase Edmonds, RB, Arizona Cardinals
I doubt Johnson’s departure does much for Kenyan Drake’s value in Arizona, because it was already pretty clear he had the No. 1 job. But Johnson leaving does solidify Edmonds as the No. 2 and clear handcuff, and while you aren’t going to be relying on him to start the year, he’ll have some random weeks, and he’ll have massive value if Drake gets hurt.
Michael Gallup, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Not only are the Cowboys holding onto Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper, keeping the offense strong, but the team let Randall Cobb and his 83 targets from last year leave, and it would be a surprise if Jason Witten and his also-83 targets returned as well. Blake Jarwin will get some of those targets, and so will Cooper and Ezekiel Elliott and who knows who else, but Gallup is my bet to get the lion’s share.
Will Fuller/Kenny Stills, WR, Houston Texans
The arrival of Cobb undercuts this value boost a little, but still, Fuller and Stills are going to see significant value boosts with DeAndre Hopkins leaving Houston. On a per-game basis, Fuller is the obvious biggest beneficiary, likely to absorb the WR1 role in the offense, but Stills will get a bump as well, and if Fuller gets hurt again, that will be huge.
(In other news, RIP to any dynasty Keke Coutee shares.)
Hayden Hurst, TE, Atlanta Falcons
It’s easy to forget now, because Mark Andrews has been so productive, but Hurst was the first of those tight ends taken by the Raven sin 2018 going before Andrews (and Lamar Jackson, for what it’s worth). He was projected to be a pass-catcher, too, an expectation that was undercut by Hurst getting hurt and then Andrews developing. Now in Atlanta, he’ll take over a role that Austin Hooper got plenty of production out of despite being largely average as an overall tight end. Hurst has easy top-10 TE upside that he was never going to sniff in Baltimore.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
No one has targeted tight ends like Lamar Jackson the last two years, and now with Hurst gone, Andrews could see an even greater target share. Giddyup.
Greg Olsen, TE, Seattle Seahawks
(If you think I’m writing this in part to get myself used to writing unusual player/team name combinations … well, I’m not, but it’s definitely a perk.)
Olsen missed two games his rookie year, in 2007. He then played 16 games in each of the next nine years, through 2016. That led to a 2017-2018 two-year stretch where he played 16 games combined. He bounced back to play 14 games last year, though he had a disappointing 597 yards and 2 touchdowns. And he just turned 35. Still, if there’s any gas left in the tank, a Russell Wilson who got 10 touchdowns out of Jimmy Graham in 2017 and has made plenty out of Will Dissly and Jacob Hollister in recent years is a good player to unlock it.
Losers
Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans
Poor Watson. Poor Shea Serrano. Poor Texans fans everywhere. Maybe Bill O’Brien is playing 15-dimensional chess and knows something we don’t, and he can run a Johnson&Johnson running game to success in 2020. It is possible, even if it appears insanely unlikely. But the departure of DeAndre Hopkins and the apparent increase in emphasis on the run is going to hurt Watson’s fantasy upside. And that stinks.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota Vikings
Obviously, the Vikings aren’t going to go into 2020 with only Adam Thielen and Bisi Johnson atop the WR depth chart. In a ridiculous deep draft class, I expect they’ll grab one and maybe two of the big names at the position. But even if the draft picks are better than the departed Stefon Diggs eventually, I can’t picture them doing that right away. Dalvin Cook should be in good shape, but not Cousins.
Devonta Freeman, RB
Ain’t got no job no more, ain’t got many teams that need a low-end starter, ain’t got no fantasy ceiling.
Duke Johnson, RB, Houston Texans
Welp, guess we just never will see how he’d do as a starter.
Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills
Take a minute and search “Diggs Cousins Allen” on Twitter just to see how many people tossed out some variation of “If Stefon Diggs didn’t think Kirk Cousins was good, just wait until he sees how Josh Allen plays.” There’s a lot of them. Also, [John Brown plus Cole Beasley] is actually more competition for targets than [Adam Thielen].
Larry Fitzgerald/Christian Kirk, WR, Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals’ passing game overall can only be helped by the arrival of DeAndre Hopkins, but the guys who were likely to battle for the No. 1 spot before? They’re now contending to be the team’s No. 2/3 options. Hopkins is gonna get his.
Curtis Samuel, WR, Carolina Panthers
This stinks, man. I wanted Teddy Bridgewater to get a job, and I wanted Samuel to get a better quarterback than he had last year, and I wanted that quarterback to be a match for Samuel’s skill set. Wish 1, done — Bridgewater is the Carolina quarterback now. Wish 2, done — Bridgewater is almost certainly better (and by a fair amount) than Kyle Allen or Will Grier. Wish 3? Not many quarterbacks throw a shorter ball than Bridgewater, and not many receivers enjoy a deeper target than Samuel. Bridgewater should be fine for Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, even Ian Thomas, but Samuel’s breakout hopes have dimmed a lot.
Austin Hooper/David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns
Talk all you want about how Kevin Stefanski used both Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith in Minnesota last year, and that might mean Hooper and Njoku see the field a lot. Maybe true! But Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb, and Kareem Hunt are all going to get theirs, and neither Rudolph nor Smith saw that much playing time or targets before Adam Thielen got hurt. And Hooper’s role in Atlanta was basically a perfect fit for him getting targets, a hard ask to recreate anywhere. If Njoku gets shipped out, Hooper will still have fringe-TE1 value, but that’s about it.