‘My Guys’ in the 2020 NFL draft

Tuesday saw the release of my first-round mock for the 2020 NFL draft. It was perfect. (It wasn’t, but whatever.) But in a lot of ways, a mock draft is more thought exercise than actual analysis. Even the best mock draft is going to get, what, four picks right? Five? You aren’t tossing a mock out there hoping to nail every pick 1-32. Really you’re combining what you would do as the guy in charge of every NFL team with a dose of breaking down your favorite options in the draft.

It’s that last phrase — “your favorite options in the draft” — where the individual analyst’s opinion really matters, and where you can really learn something from the process. So today, I’m offering a quick rundown of My Guys in this year’s draft, the players I’m highest on relative to their stock:

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama

I think you have to take Joe Burrow first even if you feel comfortable with Tua’s medicals; Burrow definitely has the highest floor in this year’s class. But I don’t think it’s above any debate. I would probably argue for Tua’s ceiling, even if his floor is certainly lower. Until about a week ago, I thought Washington would take him at second. I still think that’s on the table (or a trade-down so someone else can). I slotted him sixth in my mock, but a sixth pick that would infuriate me.

Isaiah Simmons, S/whatever, Clemson

If I had to sell my future on one guy in this draft, it would be Simmons, and I say that not even knowing what position he’ll really end up at in the NFL. He’s got a chance to be a superstar at like four different positions in the NFL, meaning that he is a fit for literally every team. I had the Chargers pass up on him for Tua in my mock, but if you added him to Derwin James, that secondary, and Nick Bosa and Melvin Ingram in that defense, Tyrod Taylor could lead the Chargers to 3 points a game and they’d still go 13-3.

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama

Most opinions I’ve seen about this draft class list Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb as 1 and 1A (in some order) atop the receiver list. But personally, I have Jeudy in a tier to himself, with Lamb closer to the next tier. I think Jeudy has a shot to come in and be a top-10 receiver (both for fantasy and real football) right away.

Andrew Thomas, T, Georgia

You have to love guys who come in and are great right away. Thomas was an absolute stud at Georgia as a freshman three years ago, and it just stayed good throughout. Whoever ends up with him should be ecstatic.

Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU

Fulton is the anti-Andrew Thomas in some ways, because "a long track record” is not something he has at all. He barely played as a freshman, sat out his sophomore year to a suspension, and then played only seven games as a junior in 2018. But his 2019 season was ridiculous, and someone with his shadow ability could be an elite NFL cornerback very soon.

Laviska Shenault Jr., WR, Colorado

I’ve copped to irrational love for Shenault all draft season. I think his ceiling could just be ridiculous. Now, he absolutely has to land in the right situation — if he ends up in, say, Jacksonville, as I predicted in my mock, I think he could struggle. But if he goes to a team that is willing to be creative with him (San Francisco is the obvious choice, but there are others), I could see an insanely versatile NFL player develop with a quickness.

Jalen Hurts, QB, Oklahoma

My interest in Hurts isn’t that I think he’ll come in and definitely be good right away. It’s more in the sense that you’ll be able to figure him out quickly. For fantasy purposes, Hurts as a starter will definitely be fun in the Tebow sense (if you recall, Tebow was a genuine fantasy asset). But for NFL purposes, I don’t think he’ll take multiple years of evaluation or anything. A team can draft Hurts this year and still know for 2021 whether it needs to look into the market again. I like that feature, even if it means the potential for burning a pick.

Netane Muti, G, Fresno State

Thought exercise: How high would Muti’s stock be for the draft if he hadn’t missed so much time to injury? I oh-so-humbly argue he’d be the top O-lineman in this class. Obviously, the injuries matter in evaluating him, and Achilles and Lisfranc injuries need to pop on your radar, but the upside is immense.

Antoine Winfield Jr., S, Minnesota

I feel like such a cliché, but man do I love kids of players. Many (definitely not all, but many) come in with a head start when it comes to knowing the game, and Winfield displays that trait in spades. He’s maybe the savviest safety in this year’s class, and that (to me) more than makes for some of his (relative) deficiencies on the physical side.

Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama

Diggs is another player who needs to land on the right team, in the right scheme, with the right coach, but if he does, the stuff he does well could be great. I’m not the best at comps, but I see a fair amount of Marcus Peters in his game — he’ll jump some plays and make some super highlight moves, but that’ll end up costing him in some big plays allowed the other way. Still, when he’s good, he’ll be really good.

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona State

Aiyuk is going to have six 50-yard plays as a rookie. I’ll write that in stone right now. The only question is whether he does enough around those plays to make him worth an investment. But the big plays will be there. (I spent the early part of this evaluation season thinking his last name was pronounced like Goofy laughing, which also was a point in his favor, but the more I watched, the more I realized it’s more like iYook, which is less fun.)

J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ohio State

Entering the draft season, it seemed like a three-headed monster atop the running back class made up of Dobbins, Jonathan Taylor, and D’Andre Swift, with those three coming in just about any order. Now here we are, a day shy of the draft starting, and it feels like Taylor and Swift have been pushed to the top of the list, with Zack Moss and Clyde Edwards-Helaire even vaulting over Dobbins on some boards. And for the life of me, I don’t understand why. Dobbins is just as elite a prospect as Taylor and Swift. I’ve considered ranking him my No. 1 back in this class.

Chase Claypool, WR/TE, Notre Dame

I’m genuinely intrigued by these positionless guys. Is Claypool going to be a receiver at the next level? Or a tight end? Or does it even matter? There’s high Darren Waller potential in Claypool’s game.

Justin Madubuike, DI, Texas A&M

I don’t think there’s future stardom in Madubuike’s game, but he should be a starter-plus in the NFL for a decade. It’s perhaps a low ceiling, but just a ridiculously high floor, good-but-perhaps-not-great at every last aspect of the game.

Harrison Bryant, TE, Florida Atlantic

I wonder if the abbreviated evaluation season will hurt Bryant, since his small-school resume would have been helped by more in-person workouts and interviews. He needs to figure some things out, but his pass-catching skills are enough to have be very interested.

Lynn Bowden Jr., QB/WR, Kentucky

Okay, fine, I’m biased. But man, Bowden was fun to watch with Kentucky last year, and like a poor man’s Laviska Shenault, if he ends up in the right situation, he could be just as fun in the NFL. At a minimum, I think the team that drafts him will have a strong return man, and there’s the potential for full Taysom Hill-ification here.

Rodrigo Blankenship, K, Georgia

Okay, so this isn’t evaluate-y. Please don’t draft Blankenship, NFL teams, at least before the seventh round. But between that name, those glasses, and everything else, I want nothing more than Blankenship to be a good NFL kicker for the next 20 years. Please make that happen, world.