Anti-‘My Guys’ in the 2020 NFL draft

Over the last few days, I’ve been offering up some of my prime NFL draft thoughts, since the draft starts in just a handful of hours. (That is, depending on when you’re reading this; maybe it’s October and you’re reading something old. Hello from the past!) That included my first-round mock draft Tuesday and my favorite players of the draft Wednesday.

Today is the “Daniel is mean” piece. These are the players I feel like I’m lower on than the general consensus, guys I think will be drafted too high and might disappoint, either as rookies or over the course of their careers. I hope I’m wrong! I like when guys are successful. But these are the players I think the general consensus is too high on.

Joe Burrow, QB, LSU

Okay, to be clear, I would take Burrow first overall. I might have considered going elsewhere if not for Tua Tagovailoa’s injury concerns, but with those existing, I don’t think there’s much question. Burrow is the No. 1 pick, and he should be. But I struggle seeing him as a locked-in, “best prospect since Andrew Luck” type. I can’t designate Burrow as that off of one year. It is very easy to explain away why he wasn’t a monster in college before 2019, so I’m not holding it much against him, but I have to be a little skeptical. I think Burrow’s great. I just don’t think he’s as great as the general consensus.

Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon

Herbert’s real tall, and Herbert has a real strong arm. Positive attributes: End of list. He looks the part, and that’s great, and I don’t care about it. Get a quarterback who can play quarterback, not one who you can slap on a media guide.

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin

I think the draft evaluation season has elevated Taylor from “in a cluster at the top of the RB rankings” to “the very top of the RB rankings.” And he’s going to be one hell of a runner, to be sure. I do worry about tread on the tires, though that’s very likely not a fair concern. My bigger concern, though, is that he catches passes like a slightly better LeGarrette Blount. And that’s not a criticism! You don’t have to catch passes to be a good fantasy running back or a good real running back. But I do think you need to do so to warrant a top-half-of-the-first-round pick. Taylor might be the best in the class, but I don’t think he’s measurably ahead of the next few names, even if he goes well ahead of them.

Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama

It’s actually kind of popular right now to be down on Ruggs, so I might not be out on a limb. But this is a dude with 98 catches in his college career. Yes, he turned them into 24 touchdowns and has the potential to be an absolute burner occasionally. But he’s also going to be infuriating, because I expect plenty of goose-egg sorts of games. And I want more reliability out of a guy who is going to go as high as him.

K’Lavon Chaisson, Edge, LSU

I don’t really know what to make of Chaisson. But I’m always wary of guys who are “skills” over “performance.” If Chaisson puts everything together, he could be a monster. But I don’t like to put my bet on a speculative bid like that.

Curtis Weaver, Edge, Boise State

And Weaver is essentially the opposite of Chaisson. He was an elite performer in college, but the skill set does not impress me. And given that his opponent list was Group of 5, not Power-5, I’m wary of him at the price tag he’s going to carry.

Jonah Jackson, G, Ohio State

If I’m taking a lineman as high as Jackson is likely to go, it needs to be a guy who will be elite (or at least above-average) in pass and run protection. Jackson? He’s going to be an excellent pass protector, which is obviously the bigger of the two factors, but he doesn’t promise to do much for the running game, which means I don’t want to take him at his slot.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, LSU

Edwards-Helaire’s stock has risen more than any other player’s at any position this draft season. And there is a definite starter set here. But this is a player who only carried the ball 20-plus times in a game in college four times. It wasn’t until late this past season that he even had any kind of full-time role. His (lackluster) pass protection has the potential to be a big issue for him at least early in his career. I’m not buying the CEH hype.

(I swear I don’t just hate LSU guys. I promise.)

Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU

Ultimately, hands don’t matter that much. Like, sure, Larry Fitzgerald has had wildly few drops in his career and been great, but Amari Cooper has a whole bunch of them and he’s great as well. So it isn’t a dealbreaker or anything. That said, hands of stone make the job harder, and “hands of stone” is what Reagor has. If he can improve on that, he has a high ceiling, but I don’t like coming in with something for a guy to overcome right away.

Austin Jackson, T, USC

Yeah, sure, if I’m taking a tackle in the early/mid second round, it’s going to be a guy who is a project at literally every aspect of the game. Maybe there’s a future where Jackson is a star lineman, but it’s a long way away.

Cole Kmet, TE, Notre Dame

If you can grab Kmet in the fourth round, I’m all for it. You also can’t do that. There are rumors he could go as high as the first, in which case I am all the way out. I can’t see the upside in Kmet’s game. There’s not much eh does wrong, but even less he does that is that impressive. He’s a Jason Witten starter kit, and while you would kill for Witten’s career, there are about a dozen Jason Witten starter kits in every draft.

Raekwon Davis, DI, Alabama

Being bad at pass-rushing as a prospect in 2020 is like being bad at three-point shooting as a prospect in … well, 2020. Davis has some strengths, but his weakness is so glaring it’s going to hold him back.

Cameron Dantzler, CB, Mississippi State

Dantzler is both the tallest and close to the lightest cornerback near the top of this class. That’s a mix that scares me. Plenty of talent, but his body type could get blown away on the field.

Jake Fromm, QB, Georgia

What is it Fromm does? He’s not going to come out there and destroy you. I guess if you have a perfect team already and just need a quarterback, you could do worse, but otherwise, why bother? He’s like a game manager on sedatives. He’s just a guy. He’ll be a backup in this league until the heat death of the universe, but I can’t see a starter here.

Bryan Edwards, WR, South Carolina

You know how you see those kids who hit early growth spurts in middle school and just run the youth basketball leagues because they’re 5’9 at age 12 and everyone else is 5’1, but then they stop growing and all the other kids catch up, and the no-longer-tall kids suck in high school? That’s Edwards. He bullied the college kids around, and sure, it was the SEC, but the NFL isn’t going to get pushed around like that. He’s going to have a tough time.

Jared Pinkney, TE, Vanderbilt

2016: 22 catches, 274 yards, 2 touchdowns. 2017: 22 catches, 279 yards, 3 touchdowns. 2019: 20 catches, 233 yards, 2 touchdowns. So yeah, 2018’s 50 catches, 774 yards, and 7 touchdowns were great. But it was the outlierest outlier that ever outliered. Don’t expect it to return.

JaMycal Hasty, RB, Baylor

Hot take: If his name was “Jonathan Taylor,” he wouldn’t even be on draft boards. He could end up being a shifty little joystick type, but it’s hard to see him making players miss at the same level in the NFL that he did in college. Fantastic, first-rounder name. Undrafted free agent performance.