Don’t expect vintage Gronk in Tampa

Rob Gronkowski , freshly off of his horrible, horrible run on The Masked Singer (seriously, if you haven’t seen clips, find them; he’s the worst singer that has ever existed), is now apparently an NFL player today, with it going from “no Gronk news” to “Gronk wants to play, maybe there’ll be a trade” to “Gronk’s with Tampa!” in the span of about a half-hour Tuesday.

For the NFL, this is good news. There are so many problematic big-time athletes out there, and Gronk … just isn’t one. Or at least, we have no reason to believe he is one (a crucial difference). He’s a lunk, to be sure, but that’s all he is. What’s the biggest scandal surrounding Gronk? An ill-conceived ladies event? Dirty roast jokes? I’m not saying there aren’t potentially problematic aspects of Gronk’s personality — I wouldn’t be surprised at all — I’m just saying that he has, at least from a public-facing perspective, been just a fun-loving lunk, and there is nothing wrong with being a lunk.

Fantasy, though? This raises all sorts of questions about how to value the nearly-31-year-old Gronk. He is the most talented tight end to ever play the game (both real or fantasy). No one has ever had a higher ceiling. But that ceiling hasn’t always been on display. He hasn’t played all 16 games in a season since 2011 (though he played 15 in 2014 and 2015). He’s had 3 touchdowns and under 700 yards in two of his last three active seasons, and of course didn’t play at all in 2019. Assuming a 2020 Gronk, even paired back with Tom Brady, is still an elite tight end is by no means an insane proposition, but it’s also no lock.

When figuring out where to rank Gronk, the first thing to do: Assume O.J. Howard is gone. Maybe the Buccaneers hang onto him, and Gronk, and Cameron Brate, but that’s hard to picture. A better bet is they find a taker for Howard (who still has to have considerable trade value, especially considering the awful draft class this year) in the next couple days before the draft and accrue some more picks. If Howard stays around, it will lower Gronk’s fantasy value a bit.

But if we assume Howard is gone, then the question is what tier to slot Gronk into. We know that Brady and a healthy Gronk have a great connection. But you can’t reasonably argue for Gronk over Travis Kelce or George Kittle. The Mark Andrews/Zach Ertz tier is probably out of the conversation as well.

So that brings us to (in some order) Darren Waller, Hunter Henry, Evan Engram, Jared Cook, Tyler Higbee. This definitely feels like Gronk’s tier, at least to me. But Waller and Henry? They could be a tier to themselves here. No, Gronk probably belongs right with Engram — physical marvels, injury risks, massive ceilings. If I had to pick between the two, right now I’d take Gronk, just because of the ceiling, so that would make Gronk the No. 7 tight end for 2020, albeit with just an insane level of downside. Whether that means you draft a second tight end or just hold on to some FAAB lest you need it, anyone taking Gronk should do so with at least a marginal expectation of not having him all year.

This obviously helps Brady’s stock as well. He was my QB16 as of my last rankings update, but that was sort of hedging my bets — I could see him being a top-10 QB if he still has it and things go right, and I could see him being outside the top 20 if things go wrong. Ultimately, I find it hard to believe 16th is where he could reasonably finish, but that’s where I’d value him because of the floor and ceiling. This bumps that up. If I were to update my rankings again right now (I’ll be doing that post-draft), I’d probably move Brady to 13th, between Matts Ryan and Stafford.

Chris Godwin and Mike Evans? Sure, maybe this lowers them a bit. But I’m not going crazy with either one. Anyone who says they have a feel for what this means for either of them specifically is speaking with a greater degree of confidence than I think is fair.

But Gronk’s back, y’all. Football’s more fun as a result. And fantasy is more confounding.

Oh, and here’s the clip of Gronk singing. You were warned.