Fantasy impact of the Texans-Cardinals trade

Austin Hooper has reportedly agreed to sign with the Browns today, the first day of the legal tampering (lol) period in the NFL. Ereck Flowers has agreed with Miami, a monumental rebound after he was speeding toward “out of the league” a year ago. The Colts are closely linked to Philip Rivers, the Bucs to Tom Brady, and any number of other moves might come down as I write this.

It’s all irrelevant, though, because the Texans are the football team that gets your fantasy league disbanded.

The Texans reportedly agreed to send DeAndre Hopkins and a fourth-round pick to Arizona for David Johnson, a 2020 second-rounder, and a 2021 fourth-rounder. For those who only view things through a fantasy lens (there aren’t many of those people, but still), this trade is an absolute coup. In fantasy, peak Johnson (which likely doesn’t even exist anymore, but just saying) is roughly as valuable as Hopkins. The fact that Johnson hasn’t been anything resembling peak Johnson in four years now (wow!) definitely tilts things in Arizona’s favor. You know, if this were a fantasy league.

This is REAL DAMN FOOTBALL, though. If you told me with 100% certainty that Johnson was going to go out and repeat his 2016 season — all 373 touches, 2,118 scrimmage yards, and 20 touchdowns of it — I’d laugh out loud at paying a big price for a running back that also included taking on a huge salary. The 2020 Johnson, behind a below-average Houston offensive line, with Duke Johnson also there being good at football? I wouldn’t have taken his contract for free if I were the Texans.

They. Included. DeAndre. Hopkins.

Hopkins is a strong contender for the best wide receiver in the game, part of a small group that includes Michael Thomas and, if I’m being as generous as possible, Julio Jones, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, maybe the Tampa Bay guys. Really, it’s Hopkins and Thomas. Wide receiver is already far more valuable than running back to begin with, and the Cardinals got a better guy at the more valuable position.

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So, fantasy. The good news for David Johnson is that his fantasy value takes a jump with this move, even considering the fact that any role at all would likely be a jump for a guy who might well have been released without a trade, and definitely wouldn’t have been a starter. Duke Johnson is going to have a role in this offense, but even as NFL aficionados insist he can handle a bigger role than he’s been given in his career, he seems destined to be a guy who never gets a full-time gig. What he does do, though, is undercut some of David Johnson’s value. (I will also get tired of having two guys named “D. Johnson” on the same team.) Duke will be little more than a super-deep flex in PPR leagues, but he pulls David from a decent RB1 ceiling to a mid-range RB2 at absolute best.

The biggest winners here? Will Fuller and Kenny Stills. For however long either or both remains healthy in 2020 (Fuller has missed 22 games in his four years, never topping 14; Stills played 15-plus every year before 13 in 2019), they’ll be the team’s top WR targets. Fuller will be a weekly WR2, with the question of whether to draft him quite that high coming down to how much you trust his health. Stills is more of a high-end WR3, though if Fuller were to get injured again his value would skyrocket.

For Deshaun Watson, this is crushing. He’s an excellent fantasy quarterback even if he had me, you, and my twins as targets, but this move pulls him from by QB3 in early rankings down to … at a glance, I’ll say QB6. But it also lowers his floor considerably.

Now, Arizona. I could make an argument for Hopkins’ value (I ranked him as my WR2 last month) going either direction with this move — Arizona’s offense promises to be better for wide receivers, but he’ll have more mouths to contend with — so ultimately, he probably lands right about WR2 anyway. It will be a hit to the values of Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald, though neither one was a sure fantasy starter for 2020 to begin with. The running back situation in Arizona isn’t likely to see much change here — slightly more value for Kenyan Drake, a smaller gain for Chase Edmonds, but David Johnson wasn’t ever likely to be a part of this 2020 offense anyway.

Overall, the biggest beneficiary of this trade is clearly Kyler Murray. He finished as fantasy’s QB8 as a 2019 rookie, with plenty of room for growth (only 3,722 passing yards — second-lowest among the top 14 QBs — and only 20 touchdowns — fewest of the top 22). I already had him pegged as my QB4 for 2020, expecting some significant growth. Take that profile and add arguably the game’s best receiver? Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, in some order, are QB1 and QB2 in 2020, and it is going to be hard for anyone to crack that group. Murray, though, is as clearly the QB3 as I think it’s possible to be.

In conclusion, LOL Texans.