2020 mock NFL draft: First round
This is more or less guaranteed to be the weirdest NFL draft of all time, even if you assume the technology goes off without a hitch (which is apparently no guarantee). With no idea if or when we’ll even have a 2020 NFL season, what preparation might look like if we have one, and even less chance of an NCAA season goes off without a hitch, there are a world of new wrinkles added to the normal craziness, and I could imagine it leading to:
Fewer trades looking to the future. With no guarantee of any sort of 2020 college season, teams aren’t going to want to bank picks on the future that they don’t have to. Sure, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields and Ja’Marr Chase are relatively known quantities. But every year, there are so many picks that come from out of nowhere in August to first-round locks in April (the last three first overall picks are Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and Joe Burrow, and none were anything close to No. 1 locks at the start of their respective seasons) that the chances we just don’t even have a season will make teams gunshy about acquiring future picks.
Fewer Group of 5 and lower collegians drafted. Teams have tape on all sorts of players, of course, but so much about the lesser-known guys comes out of pro days and interviews and all that, and none of that is happening. Expect teams to opt for the known quantities, even if it means backups at big schools over starters at smaller schools.
I could be wrong! But I’m just thinking teams are going to be more nervous about taking chances in this year’s draft. Is that going to lead to fewer trades? It wouldn’t surprise me, at least in the early rounds. I expect once we get to the third, fourth rounds, trades could pick up as certain teams feel they have a better feel for a certain player than others. But at the top, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if things are a little cooler.
Which is kind of a cop out, because it made it easier to build my first-round mock for Thursday. Picking trades is always kind of guesswork to begin with, so limiting the number of trades makes it that much easier.
And that brings me to my first-round mock for the 2020 NFL draft. Will I ace it? Nope! But after careful consideration and evaluation and also a heaping helping of “here’s what I’d do,” this is how I foresee the first round going Thursday:
1. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
Duh. I’m not necessarily as high on Burrow as the general consensus — I’d have liked more of a track record than just one year of dominance — but he absolutely has the highest floor of this year’s QB draft class, and arguably the highest ceiling (though I might argue that, it would be semantic). But there’s no need to go in depth here. Burrow’s No. 1. We all know it.
2. Washington: Chase Young, Edge, Ohio State
Up until about two weeks ago, I really thought Washington would buck expectation and land on Tua Tagovailoa, with the team doing its best to find a new home for Dwayne Haskins. And maybe I’m buying too much into the hype, but the current Tagovailoa concerns have convinced me it won’t happen. Absolutely no shame in ending up with Young, though. He’ll be a star.
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3. Detroit Lions: Jeffrey Okudah, CB, Ohio State
I really want to know what the Lions would do if Washington does go QB at 2, or trades the pick to someone else who goes QB. Because Young is gonna be so good. But assuming Young goes at 2, Okudah will be the easiest pick of this entire draft (non-Burrow division). He’ll be the easiest Darius Slay replacement you could ever want.
4. New York Giants: Tristan Wirfs, OL, Iowa
The Giants definitely need O-line help. If I’m running the team, I’m probably going Isaiah Simmons here, but I think the Giants go for the lineman, and there is no shame at all in taking Wirfs, who should be absolute stud, which will help Saquon Barkley, which is the main thing Dave Gettleman wants in this world.
5. Miami Dolphins: Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
Real talk: I would hate this pick. I just can’t envision a scenario where Herbert makes more sense at quarterback than Tagovailoa unless you are just absolutely convinced Tua will never be healthy — and I don’t know how you could be convinced of that. I guess, if pressed, the argument would go like this: Herbert arguably has a higher floor, given the severity of Tua’s injury. And you’re also likely to know if Herbert is a bust sooner than with Tua; if Tagovailoa struggles as a rookie, it’ll be easy to chalk that up to injury recovery and give him more time, but if Herbert struggles, that’s more reason to believe his problems in college have remained. And if that happens, it’ll be easier to bail on him and move on to Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields or some other 2021 quarterback.
That’s all rationalization, though. I think injury concerns mean Herbert will go ahead of Tua Thursday. And that makes me mad.
6. Los Angeles Chargers: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
The flip side to what I just wrote is that I would love Tagovailoa with the Chargers. I think he would have a better shot at success there, with their suddenly-not-terrible O-line and plenty of weapons around him, than with the tearaway paper that is the Dolphins’ current line. (Of course, this ignores that anyone who goes to the Chargers immediately adds 80% to their “injury risk” meter.) Tyrod Taylor is definitely not great, but he’d be a fine early-season starter if the team needs to give Tagovailoa a little extra time, either for injury recovery or because of an abbreviated training camp, and a Tua/Austin Ekeler/Keenan Allen/Hunter Henry offense would just be so very delightful.
7. Carolina Panthers: Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson
Remember how the Colts had Peyton Manning for all that time, and then as soon as they lost him, they got Andrew Luck, and that really didn’t seem fair unless you were a Colts fan? This, the Luke Kuechly-to-Simmons transition, is that for the defense. Must be nice.
8. Arizona Cardinals: Mekhi Becton, OL, Louisville
I have seen all sorts of things linking the Cardinals to receivers at this pick, particularly CeeDee Lamb, given his high pedigree and history with Kyler Murray. And holy crap would that make me mad. You draft for skill, not for need, but adding Lamb to a DeAndre Hopkins/Larry Fitzgerald/Christian Kirk/Andy Isabella/Hakeem Butler/KeeSean Johnson receiver corps while passing up on a piece that could help anchor a bottom-10 offensive line just smacks of being too cute. I can’t see it. Becton’s no sure thing, but if he pays off, he could pay off huge.
9. Las Vegas Raiders: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama
(Trade: Las Vegas sends Pick 12 and Pick 81 to Jacksonville for Pick 9.)
Most evaluators would have Jeudy and Lamb as 1 and 1A in this year’s receiver class, but for me it’s more of a 1-and-2 situation. Lamb’s very good, but Jeudy is a cut above. And with the Raiders definitely expecting the Jets to take a receiver at 11, it would make sense for them to cut the line and take the class’s best receiver. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have definitely positioned themselves to be looking to the future this offseason, so it makes sense to add an extra third-rounder at the cost of just three slots in the first round.
10. Cleveland Browns: Jedrick Wills Jr., OL, Alabama
All the Browns’ machinations of last offseason gave them style over substance, flashy players with no internal grounding to support them. They’ve already worked to remedy that this offseason, adding Jack Conklin, Austin Hooper (a fine blocking tight end) and fullback Andy Janovich. Wills, a ridiculously agile tackle at Alabama, would be the final piece to make the team’s blocking an actual asset.
11. New York Jets: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma
This year’s receiver class is both top-heavy and deep, but the depth might actually push some picks down. Jeudy and Lamb are both probably top-10 caliber receivers, but why take them when you can get Justin Jefferson or Michael Pittman or any one of a hundred other names later? In other words, the could-not-be-more-desperate-for-receiving-help Jets get potential stud, top-eight-worthy Lamb at 11th. They’ll sprint to the podium (well, the mouse or keyboard or whatever) with this pick.
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12. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin
(Trade: Jacksonville sends Pick 9 to Las Vegas for Pick 12 and Pick 81.)
This is such a mixed bag. The Jaguars will look smart for trading down, and then promptly give up that goodwill by getting their Leonard Fournette replacement (whether he’s gone from Jacksonville by Thursday or not). Taylor is going to be a star back. I don’t think anyone would really argue that. He’s not significantly above J.K. Dobbins, D’Andre Swift, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and others (and you could easily argue he isn’t even the top back), and (spoiler!) he’s the only back I have going in the first, but I think the Jaguars will give their trade-back goodwill back by taking a running back too early again.
13. San Francisco 49ers (from IND): Javon Kinlaw, DI, South Carolina
This becomes more or less a one-for-one trade, with the 49ers trading DeForest Buckner to the Colts for this pick and then using the pick to grab his replacement. But that’s obviously a move that trades security for age and money, and it’s hard to argue against it. Kinlaw needs some polish, but the skill set is there in spades.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Andrew Thomas, OL, Georgia
If you’re going to sign Tom Brady, you should also do everything within your power to protect him, because, “We signed Tom Brady but now it’s Week 3 and we have to start Blaine Gabbert” is the first sentence of a very depressing poem. Thomas came into college with plenty of polish three years ago and that never went anywhere in his three years with the Bulldogs.
15. Denver Broncos: Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama
I’m probably lower on Ruggs than the majority of the community. I don’t like one-trick ponies this early, especially with his relatively limited track record. But as I mentioned at the top, I think teams are going to opt for major-college names over less known quantities, and it’s definitely true that what Ruggs does well, he does really well. And while we didn’t see enough from Drew Lock in 2019 to anoint him the next long-term Broncos starter, we did see enough to give him a shot, and that shot needs to include a second receiver to complement Courtland Sutton.
16. Atlanta Falcons: K'Lavon Chaisson, Edge, LSU
Chaisson displayed more than enough skills in college that he probably should have been better than he actually was, but it’s not even remotely uncommon for teams to draft skills and convince themselves they can develop them. And Dan Quinn has enough of a defensive mind that I would have no problem with him taking this shot.
17. Dallas Cowboys: Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU
Literally all that’s missing from Fulton’s resume is a long track record, because he was only a starter for one year. But he was so good in his year as a starter. He has the material to be an elite cover corner for a while, and considering the Cowboys just lost Byron Jones in free agency, and Fulton should probably have gone off the board already by this point, the pick makes sense.
18. Miami Dolphins (from PIT): Josh Jones, T, Houston
Considering the least high-profile school represented in my first 17 picks is … Louisville? … Jones coming from Houston is probably the lowest profile to this point in the draft. But he has the potential to be an elite lineman, and while the Dolphins can piece together a lot of other offensive positions — and they’ve already put together a strong defensive secondary — the line needs worlds and worlds of work.
19. Las Vegas Raiders (from CHI): C.J. Henderson, CB, Florida
If you told me Henderson and Fulton swapped places at 17 and 19 I wouldn’t fight. Okudah is clearly the No. 1 corner in this year’s class, and these two are 2 and 2A in some order. I prefer Fulton, but ultimately it’s whatever. I already have the Raiders grabbing Jeudy earlier in the first, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they used one of their two Day 3 picks on the position as well, but helping the defense is a great move here.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars (from LAR): Laviska Shenault Jr, WR, Colorado
Okay, real talk: I love Shenault. I feel like the shine has come off him a bit as the draft process has gone on, but I want to admit off the top that I’m probably unnecessarily high on him, and I will admit that it’s possible that colored my ranking here. The flip side? I would hate this landing spot. Shenault is probably the single draft pick where I think landing spot will seriously dictate his future, and ending up on a rebuilding Jaguars team with no clear path to someone working with his skill set in a creative way could seriously hamstring his development. I think this is the pick. I hope I’m wrong.
21. Philadelphia Eagles: Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson
My default comparison for Higgins this draft season has been DeSean Jackson. I think most people have the Eagles landing Ruggs for similar reasons, but Higgins is a better player, and if there’s an offense we know can utilize a DeSean Jackson-y type player, it’s the offense that already has DeSean Jackson. Higgins would be the perfect salve for an offense that might as well have run me out there last season.
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22. Minnesota Vikings (from BUF): Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU
I think Jefferson’s long-term future in the NFL is going to be in the slot, so there’s an argument that putting him on an offense with only one known quantity at receiver could be a misuse of that resource, because he’s going to have to line up out wide at least some in Minnesota. He’s no Stefon Diggs, but he should be a fine Adam Thielen complement, and if a Tajae Sharpe or a Bisi Johnson can develop, Jefferson could be an elite slot weapon.
23. New England Patriots: Jalen Hurts, QB, Oklahoma
Woooooo, interesting. Hurts has the widest range in potential floor and ceiling of the big-name quarterbacks in this year’s class. One of the knocks against him has been that he benefited from Lincoln Riley’s coaching at Oklahoma and won’t have Riley anymore in the NFL, but giving him Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels and the cleanest line to a starting job he’ll find anywhere is as close to the next best thing as he’s likely to find. We already know McDaniels likes this type, considering he spent a first-rounder on Tim Tebow years ago and they briefly brought Tebow to New England. No matter what you think of Hurts, he has a stronger skill set than Tebow ever did. I would be absolutely fascinated with this pairing.
24. Chicago Bears: Jordan Love, QB, Utah St
(Trade: Chicago sends Pick 50, Pick 200, and a 2021 second- and fourth-rounder to New Orleans for Pick 24.)
I could see the Saints settling for some future considerations, because the team is fairly stacked for 2020 as is, but the possible departure of Drew Brees after the season could have the team scrambling for extra picks in 2021. Meanwhile, the Bears get what is surely to be an absolutely infuriating quarterback for the near future, no matter what happens. If he pays off and is a stud, he’ll be an infuriating stud. If he doesn’t pay off and this is a bust … well, it’s the Bears. That’s kind of how it works. (The other option here would be Jake Fromm, but I think whatever team lands Fromm will regret it for a long time. I’m not in on him.)
25. Minnesota Vikings: Antoine Winfield Jr., S, Minnesota
Is there added benefit to taking a player with ties to the location? Very arguable. I certainly wouldn’t reach a round for a guy because of an area. But if the other factors are all close, I have no issue using it as a tiebreaker. And keeping Golden Gopher and son-of-a-Viking Winfield in Minnesota would be possibly the coolest storyline of the first round. Add in that there’s no shame in taking his skill set here — he is maybe the smartest safety in this draft — and I could absolutely get behind this pick.
26. Miami Dolphins (from HOU): Grant Delpit, S, LSU
The argument against Winfield at 25 is Delpit’s existence. Delpit has some serious mistakes in his game, but if you throw him on the field, point at a tight end or a big receiver, and say “go,” you’ll be happy. I prefer Winfield’s approach, but I have to concede that Delpit has a higher ceiling.
27. Seattle Seahawks: Derrick Brown, DI, Auburn
Jadeveon Clowney is an edge defender, but regardless, his departure from Seattle means the team is going to be looking for defensive pieces. I could almost argue for A.J. Epenesa here, considering he does work on the edge, but Brown really should be off the board by this point, so I think the Seahawks pounce on the talent.
28. Baltimore Ravens: Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU
The Ravens will need to address the offensive line considering Marshal Yanda’s retirement, but there has never been a better draft to have a Super Bowl-caliber team with “wide receiver” as the only real weakness. That’s the Ravens. Reagor’s no sure thing, given how he disappointed in 2019 and his history of drops, but if he can produce anything like he did as a sophomore, the combo of Reagor and Marquise Brown could be dynamite.
29. Tennessee Titans: Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama
The Titans are an interesting thought exercise in this year’s draft. They’re decent almost everywhere, elite almost nowhere. Teams should draft for skill and not need in the draft, but it’s very easy to look at a gaping hole in a roster and fill it in the draft if there’s any debate as to the best player available. But Tennessee? I think this pick will ultimately be an easy one: They’ll cross off players as they’re taken and then grab the top name when it gets to them. Any piece will help. For me, that’s McKinney here, with a massive and versatile skillset. But it’s less about what McKinney specifically brings to the Titans and more about the fact that he’s the best name on the board.
30. Green Bay Packers: Patrick Queen, LB, LSU
Is Queen a linebacker at the next level? I could see him ending up as more of a safety or a positionless hybrid. Regardless, I think he would be an excellent match for the Packers at this point, with worlds of potential that they could tap into. No sure thing, though. He’ll need some development.
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31. San Francisco 49ers: Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor
Aaaaand that makes eight receivers in the first round. So damn silly. I don’t love Mims as a prospect, but I think Kyle Shanahan is the right coach to tap into his explosive ability. There are teams he could land on where I would yawn. But there’s no such thing as a San Francisco receiver that you shouldn’t at least be intrigued by. Shanahan should be able to tap into Mims’ ability to pair him with Deebo Samuel.
32. Kansas City Chiefs: Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama
The Chiefs being attached to offensive names like Henry Ruggs and Tee Higgins in this draft are interesting, and good lord would that be an undefendable unit. And I wouldn’t be absolutely shocked if they used this pick on a Dobbins or a Swift or even an Edwards-Helaire to fortify the backfield. But I would rather see the team bump up its defense, because the offense isn’t going anywhere. Diggs has flaws, but his strengths are big-time strengths. And as always, don’t tell me what a guy can’t do, tell me what he can do.