Fantasy fallout of the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft

The first round of the NFL draft Thursday was frustratingly boring for those of us who wanted MAXIMUM SHENANIGANS. The closest thing to a tech problem was the very overt overpopulation in Javon Kinlaw’s house and his dad tumbling to the floor, which was entertaining, sure, but was not exactly CHAOS. But from a fantasy football perspective, we have a lot of new names and landing spots to consider just from Thursday, even before the Friday and Saturday picks roll in.

(I wrote that intro before Mike Vrabel’s kid was poopin’ on national TV, so my bad, we got shenaniganification.)

So below, I’m taking a look at the landing spots of each of the fantasy names Friday, with a quick hit on what it means for the players and their new teammates. (For redraft leagues. I’ll get to dynasty later.)

1. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU

We all knew it was coming, but at least now we know know. Burrow comes into a potentially strong spot in Cincinnati. That’s especially true from a skill-player perspective, where he’ll have A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, John Ross, C.J. Uzomah, Joe Mixon, and Giovani Bernard. That’s not the best group of weapons in the league or even in the top tier, but it’s far closer to the top than it is to the bottom. His fantasy stock will rest in part with how much his line can help him. For fantasy, I’ve seen whispers that he’s already a QB1, and I don’t think I can go that far yet. Pending the rest of the weekend and my full re-rank coming early next week, he’s in the late teens at the position for me.

As for his weapons, well, we’ve been ranking them all offseason like they’d have Burrow anyway, so this doesn’t do a lot to change that.

5. Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama

I wanted Tua on the Chargers, and I let the buzz about injury concerns convince me the Dolphins would pass on Tua for Justin Herbert, which would have made me angry from a logic perspective. So that it didn’t happen is reassuring; I hate when people who should be smarter than me do things that make me think one of us has to be crazy. Tua’s cast of weapons is actually an underrated one — DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, and Mike Gesicki is a perfectly fine stable of pass-catchers, and while I’d like him to have a better running back than Jordan Howard (and he might be the end of the weekend), that’s still far better than the garbage backfield the team had last year.

Tua’s fantasy stock is going to come down to how much work he can do before the season, because the Dolphins could totally justify running Ryan Fitzpatrick out there for at least the first few games. But if I’m drafting today, I’m taking Tua in the early 20s at the position, but I certainly wouldn’t want to have to rely on him yet. As for his weapons, I’m actually downgrading them with this move. Fitzpatrick is who Fitzpatrick is, but one thing we know he does is fling it. Parker was a monster paired with Fitz last year, and that’s going to be gone now.

6. Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon

I would have liked the Chargers to get Tua. I would have liked the Chargers to punt on the position here and just draft Isaiah Simmons and have its defense become The Big Boss for the Chiefs. Instead, they went Herbert, and … I mean, fine. I’m not a big believer in Herbert’s future, but then I was also in the camp mocking Josh Allen and Daniel Jones, and at the least they’ve been better than I expected (if not much better). Herbert looks the part. He can fling it. I expect he’ll get to start right away. I just don’t see a huge fantasy upside here. He’s in my late 20s at QB.

I do like this move for Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, though. Tyrod Taylor, the presumptive starter entering the draft, isn’t a receiver-maker. Herbert should give his receivers plenty of opportunities. Allen is a solid WR1 now, and Williams is firmly in flex territory.

12. Las Vegas Raiders: Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama

Said it on Twitter: Al Davis came back from beyond the grave to make this pick happen. This is “fast good, less fast less good.” Ruggs was only my No. 7 dynasty receiver in this class, because he has one thing. He does that one thing really well, but man, when there’s a Jerry Jeudy or a CeeDee Lamb out there, I just don’t know how you make this pick. That said, he’s now his team’s No. 1 receiver, and that counts for a lot in fantasy. He’s going to slot right in as a low-end WR2/high-end flex, even if, as I said on Twitter, we’ll see a bunch of clips this season of him absolutely torching a corner and then having the ball bounce 8 yards behind him.

This hurts Tyrell Williams and just about kills Nelson Agholor (if his value had any life to begin with). Hunter Renfrow, though, exists in a whole different world, and it’s a checkdown-y world that Derek Carr loves. Renfrow will be fine.

15. Denver Broncos: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama

Must be nice to not pick until 15th, have multiple WR-needy teams go ahead of you, and still get head-and-shoulders the best receiver in the best receiver class of all time. That’s what the Broncos did here, pairing Jeudy with Courtland Sutton to form a Megatron (with Noah Fant, Melvin Gordon, Phillip Lindsay, etc.). I now officially love everything about the Broncos … except their quarterback. This offense is going to go as far as Drew Lock can take them, and I’m not yet sold that that’s very far.

For fantasy, though, I like this less. Sutton is the No. 1 receiver in Denver. Jeudy in Vegas or New York would’ve been a surefire starting receiver. In Denver? He’s a middling flex. I just don’t see enough passing firepower in this offense to support Sutton and Jeudy.

17. Dallas Cowboys: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma

I didn’t like this pick, because I don’t like teams that look like they proceed without an overarching strategy. If you’re going to give Amari Cooper big bucks and let Byron Jones walk, then that should happen with the expectation that you’ll be grabbing a D-back in the draft to make things work, and Kristian Fulton was right freaking there. But oh well, that didn’t happen, and for fantasy, good lord this is fascinating. If I’m drawing up the Cowboys receivers now, I’m putting Lamb and Michael Gallup outside and Cooper in the slot, and just letting Dak Prescott fling the ball every last place he wants.

Still, Amari’s getting the most targets in Dallas, and Ezekiel Elliott is getting his touches as well. So Lamb is a monster, but I don’t know that he’ll get enough targets to rise above a flex option. This also dings Cooper a bit, from a mid/low WR1 to a high-end WR2. It just about destroys Gallup for me; he’s just a bench option. But Dak, man. Dak was by QB5 before having CeeDee Lamb. Now? And considering that defense is going to have them in shootouts? He’s my QB4 and might be QB3 as I think about things.

21. Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU

I’ve spent all of draft season talking up Tee Higgins to the Eagles, so consider me disappointed. I’m not as in love with Reagor as many others are, because his hands concern me. But that is absolutely irrelevant in Philadelphia, where his competition in the receiver room comes in the forms of the remains of DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery. You could maybe argue Jeffery is still the Eagles’ No. 1, but I’m not sold on that. I can see Reagor being a low-end fantasy starter right off the bat.

22. Minnesota Vikings: Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU

I don’t even know why it was so obvious that the Vikings would take Jefferson, but it was (and I don’t think I was alone in that; I’m not trying to brag). He’s got the potential to be a big-time slot weapon, except … Adam Thielen’s also a pretty good slot weapon. And the Vikings don’t really have a third receiver to speak of. So I expect Jefferson to line up out wide more than I might have drawn up originally, where he should be fine and still command plenty of targets. Still, off the bat, I’m probably not going to have him in fantasy-starter territory, though I could see him rising into that range quickly if things work out right for him.

25. San Francisco 49ers: Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona State

THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO BE LAVISKA SHENAULT. As soon as the 49ers traded into this spot, I got my hopes all up that Shenault would get paired with Kyle Shanahan like Mario finding an invincibility star. This pick is fine — as I mentioned Wednesday, Aiyuk is going to have six plays of 50-plus yards as a rookie, and the only question is what else he does to go with it. It’s just that Aiyuk would’ve been good anywhere, but I needed Shenault to get his spot.

Aiyuk in San Francisco, with Deebo Samuel his only prime competition among the receivers, is going to be a borderline flex play, although he’s going to be one hell of a best-ball option, because he’s going to have some monster weeks. They’ll just be accompanied by some big letdowns.

26. Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love, QB, Utah State

It’s hard to give any fantasy analysis here. Tough to imagine Love seeing the field much at all outside of mop-up duty this year barring disaster. Unless this means the Packers are going to move Aaron Rodgers, this is not a pick that will matter for 2020 at all. (And no, the Packers aren’t going to move Aaron Rodgers.)

32. Kansas City Chiefs: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, LSU

I am not an Edwards-Helaire guy, but Edwards-Helaire is absolutely an Andy Reid guy. If you had told me Edwards-Helaire would be on the Chiefs, he absolutely would not have been included in my “down on them” piece.  This is a dream landing spot, even if there are other running backs in this class who should be ranked higher in a vacuum. But Edwards-Helaire, in that offense, with not much else in the form of competition? He’s a borderline RB1 for 2020, and is easily the biggest fantasy riser of Thursday. I love the pick far more than I love the player, which is weird to say.