The most problematic NFL bye weeks for fantasy in 2020
Hey, the NFL schedule is here! I mean, we’ll see if we actually end up with NFL football come this fall, but these leagues and officials seem bound and determined to have sports, so whatever, time to talk fantasy football for a bit.
The schedule is only so informative. We’ve known each team’s various opponents since the day last season ended, and the order of events is not the most important thing in the world. But where we did learn some things is with the bye weeks. The Ravens playing the Chiefs in Week 3 or Week 13 tells us a little; the Packers (and Aaron Rodgers) being out for the week the same week as the Lions (and Matthew Stafford) means more.
So today, I’m taking a look at the bye weeks, the most important knowledge we gained Thursday. Below are the most and least problematic bye weeks of the season, as well as what the best alternatives can be for approaching them.
Week 5
Bye weeks: Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers
We’ll be missing Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones and the D’Andre Swift/Kerryon Johnson combo, Davante Adams and Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones and T.J. Hockenson. There are only two teams on bye, but there will arguably be as many as eight fantasy starters out that week.
Savvy pickups
Quarterback: Sam Darnold and the Jets draw a spotty Cardinals defense that week, and there’s a strong chance he’ll be unrostered for the first few weeks. If Darnold gets off to any kind of start, and with Denzel Mims and Breshad Perriman added to his group of pass-catchers, Darnold could be a sneaky add. … We don’t know for sure if Dwayne Haskins or Kyle Allen will be the Washington starter to kick off the season, let alone by Week 5. But whichever one has the job will draw a Rams defense that is likely to take a step back in 2020.
Running back: J.K. Dobbins is going to be a popular draft pick this year. But what happens by Week 2, Week 3, if Lamar Jackson is still running wild, Mark Ingram is getting the lion’s share of carries, and Dobbins is getting the ball 5 times a game? Don’t be shocked if short-sighted managers dump Dobbins. Meanwhile, the Ravens draw a Bengals team in Week 5 that should be much better than it was in 2019, but the defense is still going to be rough. What happened in the Ravens’ blowouts last year? Gus Edwards got work. Expect some Dobbins in Week 5.
Pass-catchers: Keep an eye on two situations: The Rams No. 3 receiver (Van Jefferson or Josh Reynolds) and the Texans No. 3/4/5/6/etc. receiver (Kenny Stills and Keke Coutee and Randall Cobb and a bunch of other names). The Rams face Washington in Week 5; the Texans face Jacksonville. Both should offer appealing matchups. Also, Russell Gage and the Falcons draw the Panthers, who offer a severely worse defense than we’re used to.
Week 6
Bye weeks: Las Vegas Raiders, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks
Weirdly, the Patriots don’t offer much fantasy value anymore, though James White, Sony Michel, and Julian Edelman will all be out. The Raiders will cost you Josh Jacobs, but probably no one else you’re relying on. The Saints and Seahawks? Those are different stories. Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook, Russell Wilson, Chris Carson, Tyler Lockett, and D.K. Metcalf. Sheesh. Even Greg Olsen, if he’s still a viable person.
Savvy pickups
Quarterback: No one is dropping Aaron Rodgers on his bye, but there’s a chance Matthew Stafford finds his way to the waiver wire, and if that happens, a matchup against the Jags is just the salve he could need.
Running back: Phillip Lindsay has lost his hold on the starting gig in Denver to Melvin Gordon, but a matchup on the Dolphins could be the game where he gets a load of carries again. Meanwhile, keep an eye on the Colts situation, because there are plenty of questions about who, between Jonathan Taylor and Marlon Mack, will get the lion’s share of the carries early, but whichever one doesn’t could see work against the Bengals … as could Nyheim Hines as the pass-catching back.
Pass-catchers: Anthony Miller is entering his third year as a sleeper breakout pick, but that means he could easily be under-rostered after the draft and through the first few weeks. Facing Carolina in Week 6 could be his breakout week. The Giants, meanwhile, draw Washington, and with three receivers worth paying attention to, Darius Slayton the one who could be the sleeper pickup for the week. On the tight end side, T.J. Hockenson (vs. the Panthers), Jack Doyle (Bengals), and Kyle Rudolph (Falcons) could all be sneaky grabs.
Week 7
Bye weeks: Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings, Tennessee Titans
There’s a chance there are no fantasy-relevant quarterbacks on a bye in Week 7; there’s a chance there are four. There’s a chance there are no fantasy-relevant receivers on a bye in Week 7; there’s a chance there are five. At running back? Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, and whoever seizes the No. 1 job in Indianapolis? That’s where the pain comes.
Savvy pickups
Quarterback: Okay, let’s be real here: Week 7 is going to be rough for pickups. There aren’t a lot of obvious places to go here. Best I can tell you is monitor the Ohio teams, because neither Joe Burrow nor Baker Mayfield is guaranteed to be rostered off the bat, and they face each other in Week 7, which could be a big game for either guy.
Running back: Everything I said about quarterback? It’s even worse at running back. Your best bet is to grab a guy who gets dropped on the Week 6 byes — Sony Michel or James White, maybe Latavius Murray if Alvin Kamara is banged up. Josh Jacobs and Chris Carson aren’t likely to be available. Good luck.
Pass-catchers: Slightly more intrigue here! The Cowboys play a bad Washington pass defense, and Michael Gallup could be the odd man out on this offense during draft season. Blake Jarwin is also an option there. Elsewhere, Greg Olsen will be coming off his bye and playing the Cardinals, while DeSean Jackson is at best his team’s No. 5 target but good for a few big games a year, and “against the Giants” is a good time for that.
Week 8
Bye weeks: Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers, Washington
So Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, and Deshaun Watson; Kenyan Drake, Mark Ingram, Melvin Gordon, and David Johnson; DeAndre Hopkins, Courtland Sutton, Brandin Cooks, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Terry McLaruin; Mark Andrews and Noah Fant. Rough week, y’all.
Savvy pickups
Quarterback: Ryan Tannehill, off a bye (when he could find his way to the waiver wire), against the Bengals. Yes please. Also, Gardner Minshew, off a bye, though against the Chargers, so that could be a tougher life. Still worth monitoring.
Running back: Kareem Hunt might not be widely owned, considering he could be the sixth weapon on his own offense, but a game against Las Vegas could be good for him. Better chances? Justin Jackson of the Chargers, because it’s hard to imagine LA leaning that hard on Austin Ekeler, and facing Jacksonville could be a week to see Jackson get work.
Pass-catchers: Remember in Week 5 when I suggested Russell Gage against the Panthers? Russell Gage faces the Panthers again. At tight end, Jonnu Smith will be coming off a bye and facing the Bengals. Enjoy.
Week 9
Bye weeks: Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia Eagles
There are no guaranteed quarterback starters on bye this week, yet there are a bunch of maybe quarterback starters on bye. At running back? Nick Chubb and Joe Mixon. At wide receiver? A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd and Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry and Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods and (digging a bit) Jalen Reagor and Alshon Jeffery. And then Austin Hooper, Tyler Higbee, Zach Ertz, and Dallas Goedert at tight end. The list gets long.
Savvy pickups
Quarterback: We’ll see what Drew Lock does out of the gate, but he’s got every weapon and every opportunity; maybe halfway through the season, with some time to gel, against Atlanta will be the time.
Running back: The guys in Washington? We’ll see how the Washington backfield shakes out for the first part of the season, but there’s plenty of reason to believe a Derrius Guice or an Adrian Peterson could be dumped over the bye week, with a game against the Giants to come after that.
Pass-catchers: You’re likely have your choice of one of Christian Kirk or Larry Fitzgerald (off a bye, against Miami), the secondary Texans guys (off a bye, against Jacksonville), or Steven Sims (off a bye, against the Giants). That’ll play.
Week 10
Bye weeks: Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers
Man, this is a rough week. At quarterback, you’re missing Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan, and that’s the end of that particular list. Running back is rough, too — Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, Clyde Edwards-Helaire/Damien Williams, and Austin Ekeler. Wide receiver — Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams. Even tight end — Travis Kelce and Hunter Henry for sure, maybe Blake Jarwin and Hayden Hurst. You’ll want to plan ahead for Week 10, y’all.
Savvy pickups
Quarterback: If you’re in a one-QB league, Carson Wentz could end up on the waiver wire after a rough Week 9, in which case you’ll definitely want him against the Giants. Failing that, the Dolphins get the Jets, meaning whoever the starter is between Tua Tagovailoa and Ryan Fitzpatrick could be a sneaky play.
Running back: For all the running backs off this week, there aren’t a lot of obvious players to snag. Best bet is a Rams guy — probably Cam Akers, but maybe Darrell Henderson or Malcolm Brown, given the team will be coming off a bye and facing Seattle.
Pass-catchers: Davante Adams will never be on the waiver wire, but Devin Funchess or Jace Sternberger against the Jags? T.J. Hockenson against Washington? Or (sneaky!) Tyler Johnson as a late-season riser for the Bucs against what could be an awful Panthers defense.
Week 11
Bye weeks: Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Miami Dolphins, New York Giants, New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers
I guess you have to consider Josh Allen a fantasy-relevant quarterback, but that literally might be the entire list in Week 11 despite a six-team bye week. Saquon Barkley might be the only big loss at running back, Stefon Diggs and Allen Robinson at wide receiver, George Kittle at tight end. There are a bunch of other names who might be fantasy-relevant, especially as far into the season as these byes are, but ultimately, the NFL gave us all the fringe teams on bye at the same time.
Savvy pickups
Quarterback: Whoever has the Chargers starting job by now (probably Justin Herbert, but don’t sleep on Tyrod Taylor) will be coming off a bye (meaning it’s unlikely he’ll still be rostered) and heading into a matchup against … well, the Broncos, which is no sure thing by any means, but there aren’t a lot of obvious pickups in Week 11.
Running back: We’ll see how the season shakes out when it actually starts, but there are plenty of reasons to think the Bengals will be a very friendly matchup for fantasy running backs again in 2020. This week, that means grabbing someone out of the Washington backfield — Derrius Guice, Adrian Peterson, maybe even Antonio Gibson, depending on how things are going — as a desperation play.
Pass-catcher: The Cowboys will be coming off a bye and facing a subpar Vikings pass defense. Nobody is dropping Amari Cooper or CeeDee Lamb, most likely, but could Michael Gallup be a bye-week casualty? Or will Blake Jarwin be keyed up for a big Week 11?
Week 13
There are no Week 12 byes, which is weird
Bye weeks: Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I find it funny that the league is giving the league’s oldest quarterback the longest time to play straight through without a bye, but oh well. Despite only two teams on a bye, this week could be rough. Tom Brady, Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Rob Gronkowski are the big names here … and Teddy Bridgewater, Ronald Jones/Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Curtis Samuel, Robby Anderson, Tyler Johnson, Ian Thomas, and O.J. Howard could all matter as well. There’s a chance the last week before the fantasy playoffs becomes kinda brutal.
Savvy pickups
Quarterback: The Lions replaced Darius Slay with Jeff Okudah this offseason, but the best you can say about that (even if Okudah is excellent) is that the secondary was only okay before and could be only okay again. Could that put Nick Foles in line for a strong week? I could see that.
Running back: Miami draws the special “Bengals matchup” card in Week 13, and only two weeks after the Dolphins’ bye (and with no desperation bye week moves to make in Week 12), maybe one or both of Matt Breida and Jordan Howard will be out there for a Week 13 claim.
Pass-catcher: There are no bye weeks in Week 12 to allow you to troll for players who got dumped, but the Steelers do get some extra time off after a Thanksgiving Day game until the following Sunday, and with none of Diontae Johnson/James Washington/Eric Ebron/other players not named JuJu Smith-Schuster guaranteed to be rostered and facing Washington, you could make something out of that. Also … the Cardinals face the Patriots in Week 12, which could easily be the “dump off any Cardinals” game if the Pats secondary is as stout as last year. That could leave Christian Kirk and/or Larry Fitzgerald as nice pickups against the Rams.