The low-water fantasy marks of 2019
Obviously, every year is different, and teams can change dramatically from one year to another, for both real and fantasy football. The Curtis Painter or Jacoby Brissett Colts, for example, were wildly different from the Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck editions.
But that all said, certain teams have trends from year to year that help with fantasy. All things being equal, you would rather a running back from the Saints (average positional PPR scoring from 2009 to 2018: 525.3) than one from the Buccaneers (320.8). And you certainly wouldn’t take a San Francisco wide receiver (422.8) if you could get a similar Green Bay (691.8) one at the same price.
In that vein, when a team’s positional production changes dramatically in either direction, it’s worth noting. Maybe it means that a team’s trend is over, or maybe it’s just an aberration, but it needs to be acknowledged. So today and Tuesday, I’m looking at teams that set up highs or lows in positional PPR points. For example: The Broncos got at least 208.1 points from the quarterback position every year 2009-2018, then 185.4 in 2019. That’s a low-water mark. What does it mean?
Today, the teams that set decade-unders. Tuesday, the overs
Quarterback
Denver Broncos
Fantasy points in 2019: 185.4
Low mark 2009-2018: 208.1
2009-2018 average: 270.1
The last decade of Broncos quarterbacks includes Peyton Manning. But it also includes Tim Tebow, Kyle Orton, Trevor Siemian, and Brock Osweiler, so it’s not like it’s been all sunshine and gumdrops for the Denver producers. Still, the Joe Flacco/Brandon Allen/Drew Luck trio of 2019 came in under all of those units.
Aberration? Not really. Things might not stay as bad as 185 points in 2020 (the only team with fewer is one we’ll talk about in about two or three lines of text), but Lock did not show enough that we can count on the team coming anywhere near its previous heights. There is a wide range of possible outcomes in Denver, but you kind of have to lean toward the low end.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Fantasy points in 2019: 174.8
Low mark 2009-2018: 232.2
2009-2018 average: 277.5
Ben Roethlisberger had played at least 12 game every year of his career before 2019. He played two in 2019. Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges were bad in his stead. That’s pretty much the story.
Aberration? Yep. Roethlisberger is 38 now, and he isn’t likely to ever again be as good as his peak, but he’s still better than the Rudolph/Hodges duo.
Washington
Fantasy points in 2019: 192.5
Low mark 2009-2018: 209.7
2009-2018 average: 260.7
Kirk Cousins had a decent little run in Washington, and Robert Griffin III had his monster rookie year. But Washington has also had seasons with Jason Campbell and Rex Grossman as starter in the last decade, not to mention the Alex Smith/Colt McCoy/Mark Sanchez/Josh Johnson debacle of 2018. So setting a decade-low at the position is actually saying something. That’s how bad things were for Case Keenum and Dwayne Haskins in 2019.
Aberration? Well, we’ll see. I’m maybe the last person who still thinks Washington will take Tua Tagovailoa in the draft, and if that happens, you’d have to expect the fantasy production to improve slightly. If it’s still Haskins? This year might be rough again.
Running back
Detroit Lions
Fantasy points in 2019: 306.6
Low mark 2009-2018: 326.7
2009-2018 average: 390.7
The Lions haven’t exactly been Ground Zero for running back production in the last decade, famously going years without a single game with a hundred-yard rusher. So this year being the team’s worst for running back fantasy production is somewhat remarkable.
Aberration? Yeah, you’ve got to think so. Kerryon Johnson needs to show he can stay healthy, but he’s going to get every opportunity.
New York Jets
Fantasy points in 2019: 281.7
Low mark 2009-2018: 284.8
2009-2018 average: 356.4
So Year 1 of the Le’Veon Bell era with the Jets didn’t go very well, huh? After missing the 2018 season, Bell arrived in New York and set career-lows in yards per carry (3.2), rush yards per game, and PPR points per game. To be sure, he wasn’t helped by the offense around him, but it’s fair to call that signing a failure so far.
Aberration? The Jets have to hope so. That said, Bell’s 28 now and hasn’t been a strong fantasy player in two years now. The best of his career is definitely behind him. He should be better, but he ain’t gonna be vintage Le’Veon.
Washington
Fantasy points in 2019: 322.4
Low mark 2009-2018: 335.4
2009-2018 average: 361.5
Oh look, Washington again. This team hasn’t been able to maintain much production anywhere for more than a year or two (remember the Alfred Morris era?), and with Derrius Guice now having two years of can’t-stay-healthy, it bottomed out in 2019.
Aberration? It’ll all come down to whether Guice can be healthy and productive. He’s even more injury-prone than Johnson has been in Detroit. It’s hard to count on big numbers until we see it.
Wide receiver
Baltimore Ravens
Fantasy points in 2019: 359.2
Low mark 2009-2018: 365.3
2009-2018 average: 490.2
The Ravens had (obviously) monster quarterback production and were plenty good at running back and tight end, but the team basically ignored the wide receiver position outside of a few Marquise Brown games. The Ravens were one of only two teams to come in under 400 PPR points at the wide receiver position last year, and the total was way below that line. Tough to get a lot of receiving points when Lamar Jackson just runs the ball everywhere.
Aberration? Jackson isn’t just going to stop running. On the other hand, Brown has a year of seasoning now, and you’d have to assume the team will add another receiver. The Ravens aren’t going to jump to the top of the league in receiver points, or even close to that, but 400 shouldn’t be that tough an ask.
Denver Broncos
Fantasy points in 2019: 416.4
Low mark 2009-2018: 420.2
2009-2018 average: 631.4
Thanks in large part to the Peyton Manning era, the Broncos had some monster receiving seasons. 2019 was … not that. Emmanuel Sanders got dealt, DaeSean Hamilton didn’t really develop, and Courtland Sutton had to be a man on his own.
Aberration? This is obviously going to be inextricably linked to Lock’s progress, but considering the team hasn’t really added anything to the receiver corps this offseason but did add a big-time ball-carrier in Melvin Gordon, you’d have to expect this to be the new normal.
Green Bay Packers
Fantasy points in 2019: 517.8
Low mark 2009-2018: 572.2
2009-2018 average: 691.8
The Packers have rarely had a problem finding a No. 1 receiver, whether it’s Greg Jennings or Jordy Nelson or, now, Davante Adams. The No. 2 has been easy enough as well … until this year. Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison were (being-mean alert) pretty terrible, and while Allen Lazard had his moments, they only came around late. Combine that with Adams’ slow start and time missed to injury, and you have a decade-low for the Packers receivers.
Aberration? Well, we still don’t have a good read on the team’s No. 2 receiver, but Aaron Rodgers almost always finds someone. Jimmy Graham’s departure could open up some targets, and Aaron Jones is unlikely to have the same touchdown luck he did last year. So better days are ahead for the Green Bay receivers, just maybe not as good as they once were.
Philadelphia Eagles
Fantasy points in 2019: 384.1
Low mark 2009-2018: 413.0
2009-2018 average: 545.3
This is an offense that has been anchored at receiver by Nelson Agholor or Jordan Matthews or Riley Cooper in recent years, but still bottomed out last year. Obviously, injuries to Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson and Agholor floundering made things rough, but it’s still notable when this team bottoms out — I wrote three years ago how the team’s receivers were as bad as they could be, and the 2019 version came in with 30 fewer PPR points.
Aberration? Jeffery and Jackson are both back for 2020. If they’re healthy, there’s potential here. Of course, that’s an “if” the size of “If I could be an NFL player…” You have to call this an aberration, but it genuinely might not be.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Fantasy points in 2019: 454.6
Low mark 2009-2018: 525.8
2009-2018 average: 672.7
The Steelers unsurprisingly had the second-highest average receiver production in the league over the last decade (behind only the aforementioned Packers), with Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster all putting up multiple fantastic seasons. Wallace is obviously long gone, and Brown joined him in departure as well, while JuJu just tanked last year, with no quality running mate and no good quarterback throwing to him. Diontae Johnson and James Washington both have potential, but this is not the unit it once was if JuJu can’t be the star No. 1.
Aberration? More no than yes. The return of Roethlisberger almost has to help it get back to the good somewhat, but this isn’t likely to be a top-in-the-league receiver group going forward, or even that close.
Tight end
Jacksonville Jaguars
Fantasy points in 2019: 116.9
Low mark 2009-2018: 117.7
2009-2018 average: 162.2
The best tight end seasons in Jaguars history belong to Marcedes Lewis, Kyle Brady, and Marcedes Lewis again. There are only eight player seasons with more than 100 points at tight end (three for Lewis, two each for Brady and Pete Mitchell, and one for Julius Thomas). It’s been a bad run for tight ends throughout the Jaguars history. And yet the most productive tight end on the 2019 roster, James O’Shaughnessy, was still only the 30th-best TE season in Jags history. To O’Shaughnessy’s credit, his 41.3 points came in only five games before tearing his ACL and missing the rest of the year, but this has still been a tight end wasteland for most of its history.
Aberration? The Jags signed Tyler Eifert this offseason to go with 2019 rookie Josh Oliver (he of 15 rookie yards) and the returning O’Shaughnessy. That’s not exactly a murderer’s row, but it almost has to be better than last year’s unit. Aberration, even if that doesn’t mean we have a sure starter at the position or anything.
New England Patriots
Fantasy points in 2019: 90.9
Low mark 2009-2018: 139.6
2009-2018 average: 292.1
Everyone keeps saying how Tom Brady’s arrival in Tampa means great things for O.J. Howard. And it might! But we really need to stop saying that Brady was the TE Whisperer in New England. He had the most talented tight end in NFL history in Rob Gronkowski and briefly a top-flight option in Aaron Hernandez. Outside of those two, he has never done much with the position. Outside of Gronk and Hernandez, the best TE fantasy season in Brady’s Patriots tenure was Martellus Bennett’s 168.1 points in 2016; the next-best was Benjamin Watson’s pedestrian 127.3 points in 2006. Brady ain’t no TE-maker. O.J. Howard investors should be nervous.
Aberration? Well, the team is running into 2020 with Jarrett Stidham at quarterback and Ryan Izzo and Matt LaCosse at tight end. This is the least aberration ever.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Fantasy points in 2019: 112.0
Low mark 2009-2018: 136.8
2009-2018 average: 178.4
Entering draft season last year, Vance McDonald was a popular sleeper pick, a pick I most certainly did not agree with. And while that makes me look good, I also did not think things would go nearly as poorly as they did. McDonald had 40 yards in Week 1, 38 yards and 2 scores in Week 2. The rest of the season, he never topped 33 yards and only had one more touchdown all season. It was bad, and only some of that can be credited to Roethlisberger’s injury.
Aberration? In a way, it’ll come down to whether Eric Ebron can be something like he was with Indianapolis in 2018, or whether he’s more like the Ebron we’ve seen all the rest of his career. That said, even rest-of-his-career Ebron and McDonald should combine to be a better option than what Pittsburgh got in 2019. Yeah, this is an aberration.
Washington
Fantasy points in 2019: 108.7
Low mark 2009-2018: 149.3
2009-2018 average: 224.8
Jordan Reed didn’t play all year. Vernon Davis played only four games, and if you ignore a 48-yard touchdown he had in Week 1 he had 9 catches for 75 scoreless yards in those games. The team’s leading TE scorer was Jeremy Sprinkle with 56.1 points. It was rough.
Aberration? Well, Reed’s gone, and Davis is gone, and Sprinkle is now backed up by Logan Thomas and Richard Rodgers and are-you-sure-he’s-not-a-character-in-a-1960s-Western Hale Hentges. Folks, this is not an aberration. Don’t look to Washington for your fantasy tight end.