The high-water fantasy marks of 2019
There were 15 teams that set decade-lows in positional fantasy football scoring last year (i.e., the Broncos had fewer quarterback fantasy points in 2019 than at any point 2008-2019). Monday, I looked at those 15 position groups to see whether those low numbers were the new normal.
As I noted then, while each team obviously has a different roster from one year to the next (let alone one decade to the next), there are some teams come to expect certain things from, and if that changes, it can sometimes take us a bit to realize. So noting big changes can get you ahead of the public-perception curve.
Today, I’m doing the same research, but the other way — 12 teams set decade-highs in positional fantasy scoring (plus one honorable mention that I’ll get to). If it looks like that is the start of a new trend, then fantasy managers can capitalize. If instead it was a blip, then you can capitalize by steering clear.
These were the high-water marks of 2019:
Quarterback
Baltimore Ravens
Fantasy points in 2019: 433.8
High mark 2009-2018: 294.6
2009-2018 average: 237.6
Probably not a huge surprise; Joe Flacco was a perfectly fine (and not much more) NFL quarterback for the majority of his Ravens tenure, but he was never really a fantasy factor; the Ravens’ previous high came in Lamar Jackson’s half-season in 2018. Jackson proved to be a very good NFL quarterback last year, to go with his unsurprising fantasy dominance coming from his rushing.
Aberration? No. I mean, Jackson isn’t likely to be the best fantasy quarterback ever again, just because that’s hard to do for anyone. But he’s the No. 1 fantasy QB for 2020 (or close, if you want to be picky), and there’s no reason to expect him to fall much from that, barring injury, for a while.
Dallas Cowboys
Fantasy points in 2019: 339.8
High mark 2009-2018: 299.4
2009-2018 average: 273.9
Unlike the Ravens, the Cowboys have regularly been more than fine at the quarterback position — other than the 2015 season when Tony Romo got hurt and the team got starts from Matt Cassel, Brandon Weeden, and Kellen Moore, the Cowboys got at least 260 points from the quarterback position every year of the preceding decade. So Dak Prescott’s huge year is pretty remarkable. He’s now been a top-10 fantasy quarterback every year of his career, albeit generally closer to the end of that top-10 than the beginning.
Aberration? Yeah, kind of. There’s no reason to expect Prescott to fall down to the teens or anything, but there’s also no reason to think he’s going to be a perpetual top-three option. More like the back half of the top 10 going forward.
Houston Texans
Fantasy points in 2019: 337.9
High mark 2009-2018: 334.9
2009-2018 average: 246.3
That 334.9 mark came in 2018. So it’s pretty easy to divide the Texans into pre- and post-Deshaun Watson and just call it a day. Now, the team will lose DeAndre Hopkins and replace him with Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb and David Johnson, so the situation will be different in 2020, but Watson is still Watson.
Aberration? Yes and no? The Texans hadn’t topped 261.2 since 2010 until Watson came around, and he shouldn’t have trouble topping that. On the other hand, the changing team around him should lower his ceiling. He’s great, but he might not be as great.
New Orleans Saints
Fantasy points in 2019: 419.5
High mark 2009-2018: 396.5
2009-2018 average: 324.6
Surprised? When you have a “quarterback” in Taysom Hill who catches 19 passes and runs the ball 27 times, but only throws 6 pass attempts, it really helps elevate the position’s numbers. Hill caught 6 touchdown passes, meaning the quarterback position as a whole got to double dip on those numbers. That’s significant.
Aberration? And it shouldn’t really change in 2020. Drew Brees is obviously going to get the overwhelming majority of the pass attempts again. Hill will probably get more than 6 attempts this time, but he’s going to be gadgety. Maybe 419.5 is a bit extreme, but this team has an artificial ceiling … that isn’t actually that helpful for fantasy, since it’s not like you’re going to be starting Hill as long as Brees is there.
Tennessee Titans
Fantasy points in 2019: 311.2
High mark 2009-2018: 275.6
2009-2018 average: 231.7
Ryan Tannehill, y’all. (That’s a three-word combo I never expected to type.) He was genuinely good last year, and considering the Titans hadn’t gotten much from the quarterback position for fantasy outside of Marcus Mariota’s 2016, he didn’t have a high bar to clear.
Aberration? Yeah. Tannehill might be better than he was in Miami, but it’s not like he’s suddenly a surefire fantasy starter. He might be better than the Titans’ previous standards, but he’s not going to be much better.
Running back
Carolina Panthers
Fantasy points in 2019: 511.3
High mark 2009-2018: 472.0
2009-2018 average: 353.5
Like the Ravens quarterbacks, when you’re basically the best ever, it’s no real surprise when you are your team’s best over a decade. The Panthers had some huge years from the DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart era (the previous high of 472.0 was in 2009, not Christian McCaffrey’s 2018), so there was a surprisingly high bar here. And McCaffrey not only cleared it, he obliterated it.
Aberration? Again, yeah. The best ever doesn’t repeat. That’s just not how math works. Add in the fact that there’s a new coaching staff in Carolina, which likely means McCaffrey will see a lower percentage of offensive snaps (in part because he almost has to), and that will lower his (and the position’s) ceiling.
Green Bay Packers
Fantasy points in 2019: 490.5
High mark 2009-2018: 385.3
2009-2018 average: 336.9
The Packers haven’t been an RB-dominant team in the Aaron Rodgers era outside of a couple of Eddie Lacy seasons. And then in 2019, Aaron Jones scored 19 touchdowns and Jamaal Williams added 6 of his own, with the duo combining for 2,271 scrimmage yards. Jones was comfortably the team’s top fantasy running back in our sample, and Williams had the No. 8 season himself.
Aberration? Somewhat. Jones had 19 touchdowns on 285 touchdowns, a rate that is almost impossibly to repeat. And with the assumption that the receivers improve in 2020, that almost has to be accompanied by a drop at running back.
Los Angeles Chargers
Fantasy points in 2019: 543.6
High mark 2009-2018: 533.7
2009-2018 average: 440.5
The only teams with more PPR points from the running back position in 2009-2018 than the Chargers were the Saints (who were basically in a world all on their own over that sample) and the Patriots, so the fact that the Chargers just had their best year from running backs is actually saying a whole lot. That’s more points than the Danny Woodhead/Melvin Gordon Chargers, the Mike Tolbert/Ryan Mathews Chargers, even the LaDainian Tomlinson/Darren Sproles Chargers. In fact, Austin Ekeler just had the most points for a Chargers running back by himself since Tomlinson’s 2007.
Aberration? Yeah. Gordon’s departure leaves it to Ekeler (and Justin Jackson), and as good as Ekeler is, it’s just hard to picture him having an even better year in 2020 than he had in 2019. Good? Yeah. Great? Maybe not.
San Francisco 49ers
Fantasy points in 2019: 501.4
High mark 2009-2018: 407.9
2009-2018 average: 344.5
The 49ers got more than 500 PPR points from the backfield in 2019 despite having no one running back get to 170 by himself. Raheem Mostert had 165.2, Tevin Coleman had 135.4, Matt Breida had 103.3. Heck, Kyle Juszczyk had 50.6 and Jeff Wilson 46.9. So as good as the unit was, it was only so helpful for fantasy, because knowing who to start when was an impossible task.
Aberration? On the one hand, no. This team is going to have plenty of backfield production. On the other hand, who cares? Mostert appears to have a line on the No. 1 job for 2020, but the team is currently bringing back all of the above names and is expected to get Jerick McKinnon back from injury. Even if one or two get dumped before the season, there are still just too many names to sort out to get monster numbers from any one guy.
Wide receiver
Dallas Cowboys
Fantasy points in 2019: 701.9
High mark 2009-2018: 678.6
2009-2018 average: 566.2
As good as Dez Bryant was throughout his Cowboys tenure, he never really had a running mate like Amari Cooper had in Michael Gallup last year. And as it turns out, two is better than one. Add in Dak Prescott’s monster season, and it made for a potent passing offense.
Aberration? No. Cooper is back, and Gallup is entering his third year. That duo should more than make up for any dropoff they might suffer from Randall Cobb’s departure.
Tight end
Baltimore Ravens
Fantasy points in 2019: 359.2
High mark 2009-2018: 235.3
2009-2018 average: 201.7
The Ravens just had the seventh-most points from the tight end position since 2009 (and, I’d guess, ever, but I’m also not passionate enough about this to take that time). Mark Andrews of course was a big chunk of that, but he was also only 57.7% of the team’s tight end scoring; Hayden Hurst (76.9 points) and Nick Boyle (75.1) were also heavily involved. I’d wager (but again, not remotely going to take the time to research it, because I can’t think of a way to do it that wouldn’t take all day) that the Ravens were the first team in NFL history to have three tight ends all top 75 PPR points.
Aberration? Not at all. Jackson has been the most TE-happy quarterback in the league since he got the starting job (and not by a little). Hurst’s departure for Atlanta might change the balance a bit, but you’d expect that to just mean more for Andrews rather than those points going elsewhere.
Oakland Raiders
Fantasy points in 2019: 321.9
High mark 2009-2018: 264.2
2009-2018 average: 169.6
The Raiders are the clearest example anywhere in this research of a team changing its stripes. For example, the 49ers had 92.9 PPR points from the tight end position in 2014, sandwiched between 238.7 in 2013 and 208.6 in 2015. That was pretty clearly a blip, as the team went from “Vernon Davis and Vance McDonald” in 2013 to “Vernon Davis and Vance McDonald” in 2015. Had I done this piece in the summer of 2015, I feel comfortable I would have called that a blip. But the Raiders? Before Jared Cook in 2018, the team had only had bits and pieces of decent tight end seasons over the last decade. Then Cook had a big 2018, Darren Waller had an even bigger 2019, and now the Raiders are heading into 2020 with Waller, Foster Moreau, and Jason Witten.
Aberration? C’mon, no.
Honorable mention: Philadelphia Eagles
Fantasy points in 2019: 384.0
High mark 2009-2018: 384.1
2009-2018 average: 247.7
Technically, the Eagles didn’t set a decade-high in 2019, because they had 0.1 more points in 2018. But considering those are the second- and third-best team TE seasons ever, I wanted to mention the grouping anyway. The Patriots are the only team with more TE points than the Eagles since 2009, so this isn’t so much an “irrelevant to relevant” transition as it is a “relevant to really relevant” one. Zach Ertz remains one of the league’s elite tight ends, and Dallas Goedert is working his way in that direction.
Aberration? There’s no reason to think so. Ertz and Goedert are still excellent, and it’s not like the Eagles have a heaping helping of receiver reserves coming along.