The fantasy options most hurt by their division in 2019
Thursday, I looked at fantasy football options in 2019 who were the most helped by games played inside their division. Terry McLaurin, for example, averaged almost 9.0 more points per game in NFC East matchups than outside the division.
Sometimes, those differences are meaningful and matter for 2020. Sometimes, it’s just a statistical anomaly. Thursday, I tried to figure out which of the biggest beneficiaries would matter for the year to come. Today, I’m looking the other way. These are the players whose PPR points-per-game output were most hurt by games within their division in 2019, and what that might mean for their 2020 outlook.
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
PPR points per game in division: 10.1
PPR points per game outside division: 22.8
Difference: -12.7
Evans and positionmate Chris Godwin were the headliners of this research, with dramatically different fortunes based on the schedule. Evans in particular suffered, with four games against Marshon Lattimore and James Bradberry (and he missed one of his two shots against Atlanta), leaving Godwin to benefit. Bradberry is gone from the NFC South now, but Lattimore remains. Still, Evans is a top-flight receiver, and his fortunes will obviously be far more impacted by how Tom Brady does in Tampa than anything to do with his division.
Christian Kirk, WR, Arizona Cardinals
In division: 7.0
Outside division: 18.0
Difference: -11.0
Kirk topped 14 PPR points in a game five times last year, and all five came in the seven games he played outside the NFC West. Of course, the biggest difference-maker in his season performance overall was Week 10, when he had 138 yards (only of only two times he topped 85 yards) and scored all three of his season touchdowns. You’d expect Kirk to balance out his performances a little more going forward, but the arrival of DeAndre Hopkins in Arizona throws all of Kirk’s outlook into question.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
In division: 23.5
Outside division: 33.1
Difference: -9.6
Tampa Bay had one of the league’s best run defenses last year. McCaffrey’s only game with single-digit PPR points (7.3 in Week 2) and two of his three lowest-scoring games of the season came against the Bucs. He came in under 25 points five times all year (amazing), and four of those came inside the division. The Panthers are changing across the board for 2020, including a new quarterback and a backsliding offensive line. McCaffrey is the rightful No. 1 pick in drafts for the year to come, but don’t expect quite the monster year he just had. And he could easily still see a tough time against his division.
Sam Darnold, QB, New York Jets
In division: 9.1
Outside division: 17.9
Difference: -8.8
Take out his negative-6.7-point implosion against the Patriots in Week 7, and Darnold’s in-/out-division splits are a much more normal 4.8 points. Don’t see ghosts, Sam.
Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks
In division: 9.5
Outside division: 17.8
Difference: -8.3
Lockett famously slumped down the stretch last year, putting up 110 scoreless yards across four games in Weeks 10-14 between two monster games. It’s not as easy as just blaming that slump, because two of those four games came inside the division and two outside it, but it does illustrate the difference in Lockett’s season. In Weeks 1-9, he averaged 19.0 points per game (worst game: 9.1). In Weeks 10-17, he averaged 9.2 (under 9.1 in five of seven games). This is a timing thing.
Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons
In division: 12.8
Outside division: 21.0
Difference: -8.2
Jones’ best game in the NFC South (where he faced James Bradberry, Marshon Lattimore, and the ascending Buccaneers’ secondary) was a 14.8-point outing in Week 17. He topped that in eight of his 10 games outside the division. Lattimore and the Bucs’ guys are still around for 2020, so while Bradberry’s departure helps, you’ll still want to ding Jones in weeks he faces his division. (It’s noteworthy that Jones’ Falcons teammate Calvin Ridley just missed the threshold for inclusion in Thursday’s piece. Since the Saints and Panthers saw big secondary dropoffs after Lattimore and Bradberry, Ridley got the pieces Jones didn’t in those games.)