The fantasy options most helped by their division in 2019
By virtue of the way the NFL schedule is put together, with six totals games against your three division opponents each season, there is a chance for some unbalanced fantasy production. If, for example, the Chargers, Patriots, and Ravens secondaries were all in the same division, then the fourth team in that division would have a quarterback and wide receivers at a distinct disadvantage.
Of course, it’s rare for any one division to have such a strong (or weak) slate of players at one particular spot for opponents to take advantage of or struggle against. Still, each year, there are a handful of players who see either noticeably better or worse production in their intradivisional games. Does it always mean something? No, not really. But it can, and it’s worth noting.
For example: Last year, Chris Godwin averaged 15.8 PPR points per game outside of the NFC South, while Mike Evans averaged 22.8. In games in the division, Godwin averaged a whopping 26.8, and Evans averaged 10.1. The NFC South featured James Bradberry and Marshon Lattimore as outside cornerbacks (and also the Falcons were there), while Chris Godwin spent more time in the slot, where the defenses were weaker. We’ll see how Tom Brady’s arrival and Bradberry’s departure changes things for 2020, but in a vacuum, you’d want to upgrade Godwin in intradivisional games, upgrade Evans outside the division.
That’s the sort of thing I’m looking at today and Friday. Below are the players who were most helped by their division in 2019 (like Godwin). Friday, I’ll look at the players most hurt by their division.
Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
PPR points per game in division: 26.8
PPR points per game outside division: 15.8
Difference: 11.0
I know I just mentioned him, but I thought it was worth reiterating. Only four players saw significant playing time last year and had a gap of even 6.0 points, while Godwin was brushing up against double that. It was a dramatic difference.
John Brown, WR, Buffalo Bills
In division: 20.8
Outside division: 11.6
Difference: 9.2
This is probably surprising, given that one of Brown’s intradivisional opponents was the Patriots, who were obviously ridiculous against the passing game. But then the team had four games against the Dolphins and Jets, making things a lot easier. Brown averaged 12.3 points against the Patriots, but 26.4 in three games against the other two teams (he missed Week 17 against the Jets). Unfortunately, Brown now has Stefon Diggs to deal with on his own team, and the Dolphins should have the most improved secondary in the league. Don’t expect this kind of discrepancy again.
Tyler Higbee, TE, Los Angeles Rams
In division: 16.2
Outside division: 7.0
Difference: 9.2
Here’s an example of when there’s a very obvious other explanation that just happens to coincide with the general numbers. Four of the Rams’ six NFC West games came over the last five weeks of the season, when Higbee exploded during Gerald Everett’s absence. He averaged 6.6 points in the team’s two early-season NFC West games, then 21.0 down the stretch. This was timing, not opponent.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington
In division: 20.1
Outside division: 11.2
Difference: 8.9
McLaurin’s midseason lull (he averaged 7.1 points per game in Weeks 7-13) also happened to take place when he played all of his games outside the NFC East. Washington played three of its first four and then its last three games against its divisional opponents, with the Eagles and Giants both struggling to field good pass defenses. Philadelphia’s should be better next year, but Dallas’ should offset that with the loss of Byron Jones, so McLaurin could continue to see a bump.
Robert Woods, WR, Los Angeles Rams
In division: 19.0
Outside division: 13.2
Difference: 5.8
Like Higbee, Woods’ difference is largely timing-based. Early in the year, the Rams played a lot of games out of the division, and Cooper Kupp was the top target. Over the last five weeks, the team played four NFC West games, Woods topped 20 PPR points in all four of those, and Kupp took a backseat. That was more about rise and fall than anything specifically schematic or personnel-related. Woods is a good fantasy receiver. The NFC West doesn’t really affect that.