Teams due to rise in 2020

In the last decade and a half, five teams have seen their fantasy production from one year to the next fall off by at least 30%. Of those five (the 2007-08 Browns, 2007-08 Bengals, 2009-10 Cardinals, 2010-11 Colts, and 2016-17 Colts) four bounced back by at least 24% the next year, and all five saw some increase. In that span, 22 teams have fallen off by at least 20%, and 20 bounced back the next year. Take it a step further, and 68 teams have dropped by at least the relatively measly total of 10%. Of those, 52 have seen their numbers increase the next year. Even a relatively small decline is almost always followed by an increase.

That information is useful, because as people, when we see numbers fall, we can get scared into thinking the arrow is just pointing down, but that is so often not true. As I illustrated Tuesday, teams that see a big rise in production usually follow that with a dip, but that effect is even more dramatic in the other direction. So when you see a team with much worse numbers one year, that means the drafting public is likely to be off that team’s players the next year, and that means you can take advantage.

For Patreon members, I took note of the five biggest droppers last year in an effort to find the five most likely risers in 2020. Read, absorb, and take advantage come draft time. And join the Patreon for more exclusive content!