Teams due to fall off in 2020

One of my favorite annual two-part series is my look at teams most likely to offer more/less fantasy production in the year to come based off of what they did the year before. I enjoy the series because (a) it’s as easy as tallying up their fantasy production from one year to the next, and (b) because it’s reliable. With very few exceptions, teams that see their fantasy fortunes swing dramatically one season will see those fortunes swing the other way the next.

To wit: Since 2006-2007, 70 teams have put up at least a fantasy point total (offense only; no kickers or DSTs) at least 20% different than the year before. Of those 70, 56 swung back the other way the next year, and of the 14 outliers, only one — the 2011-2012-2013 Broncos, which was the gap from Tebow to just-back-from-injury Peyton to fully healthy Peyton — made a significant jump in consecutive years.

It’s not immutable truth, because nothing is. But it’s as close as you can get for such an easy calculation.

The miniseries starts today, on my Patreon, with teams you can expect to put up less fantasy production in 2020 after some nice jumps in 2019. Click the link and read about the five teams. And subscribe!