Quantity vs. Quality: The most inefficient fantasy players of 2019

Imagine a world where every football player has the same relative ability, and fantasy football production comes down entirely to opportunity. In that world, you’d expect that a player who got 10% of his team’s opportunities (carries plus targets) would have 10% of the team’s PPR points.

Obviously, that isn’t the world we live in. But using that framework, we can draw some conclusions. For instance, if a player gets 10% of his team’s opportunities but 40% of the fantasy production (an obviously ludicrous proposition), that player had ridiculous efficiency, at least relative to his teammates. And related, if a player gets 40% of his team’s opportunities but only 10% of the production, he’s wildly inefficient (or had insanely efficient teammates).

So under that premise, today I’m looking at some of the most relative-to-their-team efficiency from 2019. By comparing every player’s opportunities (as a percentage of his team’s total) and PPR points (also as a percentage), we can identify the most and least efficient players in the league relative to their team. Read below for the most inefficient options, and Tuesday I’ll look at the most efficient ones.

(A couple notes: First, there are some little-used players whose differences were significant but don’t actually matter, so I’m limiting this to fantasy-relevant names. Second, this is strictly skill player, because quarterback opportunity is a whole different animal. So all fantasy numbers are with any passing production carved out, which means Lamar Jackson gets credit for only his carries but, for example, Emmanuel Sanders doesn’t get credit for his touchdown pass. And speaking of Sanders, players who switch teams are treated as two unique entities — “Broncos Emmanuel Sanders” has an entry, and “49ers Emmanuel Sanders” has an entry. And finally, because of the wildly different values of carries and targets — targets are more valuable — efficiency gets compared on the position level.)

The most inefficient running backs

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns

(38.2% opportunity share, 23.1% PPR point share, -15.1%)

The best metrics are the ones where most of the entries make intuitive sense, but some results really surprise you. Well, here’s the big surprise for me. I know that Chubb isn’t Christian McCaffrey out there, and not being a big pass-catcher hurts him as well, but it didn’t occur to me that he’d be the literal bottom of this entire research. In retrospect it makes some sense, though. When Kareem Hunt returned, he took up the majority of the backfield targets, and while neither of Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. was a fantasy superstar in his own right, they combined to be a productive duo. Chubb is a workload guy; as long as the workload holds out, he’ll be fantasy productive, but if he enters into any kind of workshare with Hunt, you can start to worry.

Carlos Hyde, Houston Texans

(27.4% opportunity share, 12.6% PPR point share, -14.8%)

And here’s the “makes intuitive sense” section. Hyde got a bunch of carries for the Texans last year, resulting in his first career 1,000-yard season (and, I’m betting, his last). But Duke Johnson got the targets, and DeAndre Hopkins and the other receivers were far more efficient than Hyde. We don’t know where or if Hyde will play in 2020, but don’t look at his rushing yardage and envision greatness, it ain’t there.

Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars

(38.3% opportunity share, 23.8% PPR point share, -14.6%)

Fournette was basically the only running back in town for the Jaguars last year. For fantasy, that’s great, because it means if there’s a backfield point to get in Jacksonville, he’s getting it. It also leads to the chance of ranking poorly here, because he gets the valuable carries and touches and the mop-up ones that don’t matter as much. Unless Ryquell Armstead develops into something more or the team adds another back, Fournette will continue to dominate work share and look inefficient compared to his productive teammates (namely D.J. Chark).

Le’Veon Bell, New York Jets

(36.9% opportunity share, 22.8% PPR point share, -14.1%)

Bell has all the problems of Fournette — dominating workload and thus getting all the good and the bad — and complemented that by not having anything like a D.J. Chark catching passes in his offense. So while in a vacuum, Fournette looks “less efficient” than Bell, Bell’s numbers actually represent a worse finish because he was surrounded by poor options. Things weren’t great in Year 1 in New York, is what I’m saying.

The most inefficient wide receivers

Russell Gage, Atlanta Falcons

(7.7% opportunity share, 7.4% PPR point share, -0.3%)

The first thing to notice is just how low the percentage for Gage is compared to the running backs. If for absolutely no other reason, the fact that every catch starts out as a point makes it far easier for pass-catchers to shoot up these numbers. (Ultimately, I probably should have done this for non-PPR, but … well, I didn’t, and the relative rankings still work.) Gage had some fantasy value in taking over the Mohamed Sanu role in the back half last year, but he definitely didn’t do much with it. Even with Austin Hooper gone, don’t count on Gage as a sleeper in 2020.

Josh Reynolds, Los Angeles Rams

(4.7% opportunity share, 4.9% PPR point share, +0.2%)

Reynolds is basically looked at as the WR handcuff in Los Angeles, filling in for Robert Woods or Cooper Kupp or Brandin Cooks as needed, but each of those three fared far better than Reynolds did. If and when the Rams are down a starting receiver in 2020, Reynolds can be a desperation play, but it truly is desperation.

Alex Erickson, Cincinnati Bengals

(8.5% opportunity share, 9.1% PPR point share, +0.6%)

Did you realize Erickson had 83 targets last year? A.J. Green missing the full year and John Ross and Auden Tate both missing chunks left a lot of attention to go somewhere in Cincinnati, I guess. Still, Erickson was very inefficient, and that’s why you aren’t likely to hear his name much in 2020.

Nelson Agholor, Philadelphia Eagles

(6.7% opportunity share, 7.5% PPR point share, +0.8%)

When reading this, it’s important to remember that these numbers are relative to one’s team. If a good receiver is his team’s fifth or sixth good option, he could have roughly the same percentage as a bad receiver that is still his team’s fifth or sixth option. And that matters here because … Agholor looked wildly inefficient compared to Zach Ertz, yes, but also compared to the anonymous list that was the Eagles receivers last year. Now with Las Vegas, Agholor might get opportunity again in 2020, but man is he not someone you want to count on.

The most inefficient tight ends

T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions

(6.2% opportunity share, 7.1% PPR point share, +0.9%)

Remember that big Week 1 Hockenson had? How long do you think it took believers to realize that was far more about the opponent being the Cardinals and less about Hockenson being the second coming? To be sure, better days are ahead for Hockenson, but for the rest of 2019, he was a drain on his fantasy rosters.

O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

(5.2% opportunity share, 6.3% PPR point share, +1.1%)

Howard’s opportunity definitely dried up last year, but he also didn’t do much with the opportunity he got. To be sure, he is measured here as compared to the ridiculous duo of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, but regardless, Howard was a big disappointment. And to those saying he’ll be great now that he has Tom Brady — that’s definitely possible! But keep in mind that Brady hasn’t actually been a tight end monger who just happened to lose his weaponry last year; he’s been a Gronk monger (fun phrase) with a bit of Aaron Hernandez dabbling. Outside of Gronk’s career, Brady has barely used tight ends at all. Tread carefully.