Quality vs. Quantity: The most efficient fantasy players of 2019

Monday, I broke down the most inefficient fantasy football options in the league last year (by one measure). Today I’m back to do the same for the most efficient players.

As a reminder of methodology: If every player were equally efficient in every way, then a player’s percentage of team opportunities (carries plus targets) would be identical to his percentage of his team’s fantasy points. A guy who got 10% of the opportunities would have 10% of the PPR points, and so on. So if a player comes in dramatically higher or lower in one percentage than the other, that carries the implication that he was significantly efficient or inefficient, at least compared to his teammates.

So read on and see who did the best last year.

(A couple notes: First, there are some little-used players whose differences were significant but don’t actually matter, so I’m limiting this to fantasy-relevant names. Second, this is strictly skill player, because quarterback opportunity is a whole different animal. So all fantasy numbers are with any passing production carved out, which means Lamar Jackson gets credit for only his carries but, for example, Emmanuel Sanders doesn’t get credit for his touchdown pass. And speaking of Sanders, players who switch teams are treated as two unique entities — “Broncos Emmanuel Sanders” has an entry, and “49ers Emmanuel Sanders” has an entry. And finally, because of the wildly different values of carries and targets — targets are more valuable — efficiency gets compared on the position level.)

The most efficient running backs

James White, New England Patriots

(15.7% opportunity share, 16.4% PPR point share, +0.8%)

You’ll find two things here. First is that pass-catching running backs fare well here because targets are inherently far more valuable than carries. And second is that even the top running backs have trouble beating their efficiency by much. It comes with the position, and that’s why these comparisons are on a position level. And after being the most efficient fantasy-relevant running back in this research last year, White tops the list again this year. It’ll be interesting to see how he fares not that he will be playing Tom Bradylessly.

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers

(25.5% opportunity share, 25.6% PPR point share, +0.1%)

Ekeler had 132 carries last year. That’s not a huge number, but considering he is occupying the realm of the players with targets-targets-targets, that’s actually a lot. Of the 86 most “efficient” running backs by this research, White is the only player with as many total opportunities as Ekeler just had carries. He was just incredibly efficient in every way last year.

Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns

(9.6% opportunity share, 9.2% PPR point share, -0.4%)

Hunt provides a counterbalance to Nick Chubb’s inefficiency, because when he returned he basically served as the team’s pass-catching back, with 44 targets compared to 43 carries. If they’re a 1-2 punch in 2020 (and why wouldn’t they be?), it’ll be an excellent backfield for real football, but a potentially frustrating one for fantasy.

Boston Scott, Philadelphia Eagles

(8.2% opportunity share, 7.8% PPR point share, -0.4%)

Scott’s emergence late last year will likely offset Miles Sanders’ own emergence, because they both play for the Eagles and Doug Pederson seems dead-set against running one single running back. Both have shown some pass-catching acumen, so it’ll be interesting to see how it shakes out. But there’s definite sneaky PPR potential for Scott here.

The most efficient wide receivers

Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions

(12.2% opportunity share, 21.9% PPR point share, +9.7%)

Golladay had the league’s most inefficient tight end on his team, and a woeful backfield, plus Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola to deal with. That explains why he’s on the efficient side. That he was the single most efficient player in the league, though, is a testament to Golladay. A full season of him as the No. 1 and a hopefully healthy Matt Stafford could make Golladay a solid WR1.

DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins

(13.4% opportunity share, 22.7% PPR point share, +9.3%)

There’s a solid amount of “compared to his team” here. Parker had easily the league’s worst backfield, a tight end in Mike Gesicki who didn’t do anything over the first half, and no competent teammate receiver once Preston Williams got hurt. That made him the only game in town. Still, he was the No. 2 fantasy receiver once Ryan Fitzpatrick took the starting job back, and that’s amazing for a guy who was a legendary bust this time a year ago.

Terry McLaurin, Washington

(11.4% opportunity share, 20.6% PPR point share, +9.2%)

Washington had a player top 83 yards in a game four times last year. They came from McLaurin, McLaurin, McLaurin, and McLaurin. The had a player top 68 receiving yards in a game 10 times, and seven of them belonged to McLaurin. He was the Washington offense last year, and with not much change in the offense for 2020 (so far, at least), he very well could be the only game in town again next year.

Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints

(19.3% opportunity share, 28.3% PPR point share, +8.9%)

Considering Thomas did have Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray, and Jared Cook to deal with, his efficiency was remarkable. Then again, he had the most targets in the league by a full 28, so he also had the quantity to go with that quality. Emmanuel Sanders’ arrival could cut down his raw target total a bit for 2020, but he’s still the No. 1 receiver in fantasy.

The most efficient tight ends

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

(9.6% opportunity share, 16.0% PPR point share, +6.4%)

The Ravens used Andrews in a weird way last year. They’d trot him on the field long enough to catch a touchdown and then make him leave. (Not literally, but still.) He split time with Nick Boyle and Hayden Hurst, and that made for a wildly efficient fantasy option, but less quantity than you’d expect out of top tight ends. That said, this is a situation where more quantity might lead to less overall quality, because Andrews was already getting the most valuable targets.

Darren Waller, Oakland Raiders

(12.8% opportunity share, 19.1% PPR point share, +6.2%)

Waller was really the only game in town for the Raiders last year along with Josh Jacobs. The team had arguably the league’s worst group of receivers, “headlined” by Tyrell Williams and Hunter Renfrow. And now they’ve added … Nelson Agholor and Jason Witten. Yeah, Waller should lead the team in targets again.

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers

(11.6% opportunity share, 17.7% PPR point share, +6.1%)

Kittle topped the list among tight ends in 2018, then came in third this year. He’s been the best tight end in football the last two years, and with the 49ers not having a huge complement of wide receivers in that time, he gets the work and has done a lot with it. With Emmanuel Sanders leaving, but Deebo Samuel developing, expect Kittle’s role to hold steady for 2020.