Power ranking the next 10 years in the NFL (1-16)
Ten years ago, if you had said the Patriots would have the most wins over the next decade, people probably wouldn’t have thought you were that crazy. Sure, Tom Brady was 32, but that’s young enough for a quarterback. There was reason to believe the team would be contenders for the long haul.
What about the Seahawks? They went 5-11 in 2009, 4-12 in 2008. Even the first two years of this most recent 10-year stretch featuring only seven wins per year. And then the team stumbled into Russell Wilson and has averaged almost 11 wins per year since, totaling 100 over a 10-year stretch, tied for fourth-most in the league.
The point is, sometimes success over a 10-year stretch is a function of what you have done in recent years, sometimes it’s the result of what is happening right then, and sometimes it’s unpredictable what might happen.
From where we are sitting, right now, we can evaluate the recent years pretty solidly. We can evaluate what is happening right now, but with the knowledge that there are error bars. For the future? Anything can happen, but we can apply a bit of an analogue to that by evaluating current front-office strength.
And of course, there’s a bit of fanfiction in that exercise. There’s no way I’m accurately predicting what the NFL will look like in 2023, let alone 2029. But it’s still a valuable exercise in current strength, future value, and everything that goes into making long-term success.
That’s what I’m doing here, ranking all 32 teams by total projected win total over the next decade, divided into four tiers. Tuesday, I offered up Tiers 3-4, Teams 17-32. Today, we get to the top half of the league.
The last 10 years
Just to re-up the chart from yesterday for context, these are the team win totals over the last 10 years:
Obviously, that’s over a 16-game schedule, which is what our brains are used to. (To that end, I’m offering up the team win totals for 17-game schedules — and assuming we get a full 2020 — but also a prorated total over a 16-game schedule, just for comparison’s sake.)
It’s worth noting that outside of the Patriots on the top end and the Jaguars and Browns on the bottom, the teams are pretty closely packed. So keep that in mind—if I have a team ranked first and another ranked 15th, you can be pretty sure that No. 1 is a clear notch above. But the teams ranked 13th and 14th? Don’t quibble, guys, it’s all for fun.
Tier 2: The Decent Teams
16. Detroit Lions
A lot of what happens to the Lions over the next year will rest on Matthew Stafford. He’s 32 now, and had his worst full season in a decade in 2018. On the other hand, he started out really well in the first half of the 2019 season. On the other other hand, I can only use the first half of 2019 because he was hurt for the whole second half. If Stafford has six more decent years in him, the Lions could top this number, especially if they find a competent replacement. But if the 2018 Stafford is what we get going forward, there isn’t enough support on this roster (especially given what appears to be a not-that-great coach in Matt Patricia) to keep them rolling.
10-year win projection: 83 (78 prorated)
15. Denver Broncos
The pieces the Broncos are putting around Drew Lock could be the basis for a top-tier finish. Lock himself could lead to a third-tier team or worse. John Elway, too, carries a lot of question marks. So ultimately, this ranking for the Broncos is a hedging of the bets. I would be surprised to see this team come in 10 wins above or below this expectation, depending on how Lock fares and how well, if Lock fails, Elway manages to find the next man up. It could go well, but it could also go really poorly.
10-year win projection: 85 (80 prorated)
14. Cincinnati Bengals
It’s definitely possible I’m overrating the impact of the new era in Cincinnati. But even if Joe Burrow isn’t the next big thing at quarterback (I’m skeptical he can be that), he should be a decent NFL starter, and that’s enough to carry the Bengals to a decent offense. The defense still has monster question marks, but now that the offense is coming together, the team’s focus can move that way. Even if 2020 isn’t great off the bat, there are enough pieces here that the Bengals could be competent sooner rather than later.
10-year win projection: 86 (81 prorated)
13. Miami Dolphins
Crazy talk! But I really like what the Dolphins have done, and while 2020 is still going to be rebuilding-ish, the pieces of the next good Dolphins team are coming into place. In Tuesday’s piece, I wondered how many current Bears would be on the next good Bears team, and the best I could do was two names, plus a few maybes. On Miami? There are some pieces all around this roster that could be around for the next good times. The defense still needs work, the offensive line still needs a lot of work, but things are moving the right way in Miami.
10-year win projection: 87 (82 prorated)
12. New Orleans Saints
The end of the Drew Brees era is definitely going to hurt this team’s upside, as will the bill coming due for all the extravagant spending the team has done for a generation now (that eventually has to bite them, right?). But the Saints have an excellent framework around Brees, including potential next-starter quarterbacks if things work right. Michael Thomas is only 27. The Saints might not have the highest of high ends after Brees is gone, but the team is still on track to contend.
10-year win projection: 90 (85 prorated)
11. New England Patriots
I stressed over where to put New England. If you believe the run of success was more Bill Belichick than Tom Brady, if you believe Jarrett Stidham can be the next starter and/or the team manages to get a Trevor Lawrence or a Justin Fields in 2021, if you believe the defense remains stout, the Patriots could continue to be the Patriots for a while yet. If you think the magic was Brady, Brian Hoyer becomes the starter, the team can’t get the next big thing at quarterback? We could be in for a bad stretch in New England.
10-year win projection: 90 (85 prorated)
10. Los Angeles Chargers
Part of me really wants to push the Chargers into the top tier. The question marks at quarterback are what stopped me. I’m not a believer in Justin Herbert, and I get the impression the Chargers aren’t, either. That draft pick was “Well, Burrow and Tua are gone, and if we don’t at least pretend to be looking for a non-Tyrod option, our six fans will revolt.” Herbert might work out, and if he does the rest of the team around him is stacked, but if he doesn’t, it could be a fallow couple of years.
10-year win projection: 90 (85 prorated)
9. Arizona Cardinals
There are the pieces in place for the Cardinals to average 8-10 wins a year for the next decade. And with the knowledge that precious few teams win the same number year after year, that means there will be a couple years in there where the Cardinals are near the top of the NFC and even the NFL. Those big win totals might not come in 2020 or 2021 as the team works to put a defense and a line together to match what promises to be some real offensive firepower, but things are moving in the right direction in Arizona.
10-year win projection: 94 (88 prorated)
Tier 1: The Elite Eight
8. Philadelphia Eagles
If you want to be optimistic about the Eagles over the next decade, it’s not hard to do: A coaching staff that got a Lombardi a few years ago, a front office that appears to be savvy, a young, successful quarterback. But if you want to be pessimistic, that’s not difficult either: The coaching staff hasn’t looked nearly as good since that Super Bowl, the quarterback keeps getting hurt and the front office just got a No. 2, the team was dredging up guys from witness protection to fill out key positions in last year’s playoffs. The needle points to the positive in Philadelphia, but there are a lot of ways for it to turn.
10-year win projection: 99 (93 prorated)
7. Indianapolis Colts
This is high as I could really justify ranking a team with an absolute question mark situation at quarterback. Philip Rivers might not be good right now, let alone a year, two years from now. We know Jacoby Brissett isn’t the answer. Could Jacob Eason be? Sure, it’s possible. But really, we have no idea who will be the Colts quarterback in 2022 and beyond. But man, everything else about the organization just screams competence, from head coach to front office to O-line to defense. If the team finds an answer at quarterback, this could be an underseed.
10-year win projection: 101 (95 prorated)
6. Buffalo Bills
The Bills are like the Colts in a lot of ways — I trust the front office and head coach (perhaps slightly less than in Indianapolis, but the difference is small) and I like the defense and framework, but the quarterback situation is a question. On the other hand, it’s a smaller question than Indianapolis’ … sort of. The thing in Indianapolis is that the Colts aren’t stuck. If Rivers or Brissett or Eason crashes and burns, well, they can bail and start over. If Josh Allen completely tanks this year (somewhat unlikely, but not impossible)? The Bills can’t really move on (even if I might advise it). So if things go sideways in Buffalo, it could be a few years to get back on track. Still, the Allen situation is (slightly) better than the Rivers/Eason one.
10-year win projection: 102 (96 prorated)
5. Cleveland Browns
In retrospect, the Browns going 5-3 down the stretch of 2018 was the worst thing that could have happened for the team. It raised expectations for 2019, when the team was really not there yet, and more crucially, it convinced them to keep Freddie Kitchens around for another year, which in retrospect was clearly not the way to go. So now it’s a year later, Kitchens is out and Kevin Stefanski is in, the offensive line has been burnished, and there is reason for optimism in Cleveland even after an awful 2019. The future is bright.
10-year win projection: 103 (97 prorated)
4. San Francisco 49ers
If someone told me the 49ers won four of the next 10 Super Bowls, I wouldn’t be particularly shocked. If someone told me the team was good for the next couple years, but Jimmy Garoppolo’s deficiencies and a weird determination to sign every running back ended up costing the team this run and they had to start over, I’d be slightly more surprised, sure, but only slightly. In the end, this is the first team where “regular contention” should be the baseline, but there are potential trip-ups along the way.
10-year win projection: 104 (98 prorated)
3. Seattle Seahawks
We can debate who will and should win MVPs over any number of years, but there is no player in the league (with the possible exception of Patrick Mahomes) who would automatically push his team into the top tier in this exercise more than Russell Wilson, even acknowledging that he turns 32 before this year is out. I have questions about Seattle’s team-building, about the team’s in-game coaching strategy, and about the long-term viability of its defense. But as long as Wilson is in the fold, I can’t downgrade the overall outlook too much.
10-year win projection: 108 (103 prorated)
2. Baltimore Ravens
The biggest negative I can think of about the Ravens’ outlook going forward is that Lamar Jackson’s admittedly impressive skillset is not one that promises to age well. Literally, that’s the biggest downside. The team has maybe the league’s best front office, a coaching staff that completely changed everything it had ever done over the course of a half-season to build around a new quarterback, and youth up and down the roster. Jackson potentially losing his legs on the back half of the decade is literally the only reason this team isn’t No. 1. (Which is annoying, because the Ravens are my least favorite team. But oh well.)
10-year win projection: 113 (106 prorated)
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Andy Reid probably isn’t the best coach in the league. But you could argue for it, and even if you say he isn’t, you can’t push him out of the top five. And he has the league’s best quarterback without much real debate. Sure, Reid is 62 and not that likely to be the head coach for all 10 years of the coming decade. But Mahomes is 24, and could be the Chiefs’ quarterback for all of the next decade and half of the one after that. As long as that’s the case, it’s hard to bet against this team.
10-year win projection: 117 (110 prorated)