2020 storylines: The resurgent Colts
(All this week, I’m taking a look at what I expect to be some of the top storylines of the 2020 fantasy football season.)
So I’m a Colts fan. I want to get that out up front and just acknowledge the potential of bias here. I don’t think my bias is what’s influencing what comes after this, but simply ignoring the potential is a way to look bad. So I’m telling you that. Daniel is Colts fan.
Okay. Said it.
The Colts are going to produce the best group of fantasy numbers in the league in 2020.
Maybe that’s overstating things. The Chiefs and Saints and any number of other teams will have excellent offenses. But the Colts will offer the most fantasy buzz in 2020, the team that goes from mediocrity to big-time performance.
Let’s discuss the why.
The holdovers
The best news for the Colts came Tuesday, when word came out that Anthony Castonzo would put off retirement and return to the team for 2020. That gives the Colts some serious high-level continuity at the line, where the same guys started all 16 games and should be back in place for next year. After a generation of bad lines in Indianapolis, that’s now arguably the team’s greatest strength.
Assuming he can stay healthy, T.Y. Hilton remains one of the upper-level receivers in the game. He’s not Tier 1, but he’s a solid mid-range Tier 2 receiver with a massive single-game ceiling.
Jack Doyle had 1,274 yards and 9 touchdowns over 2016 and 2017 before injury (in 2018) and Eric Ebron (in 2018 and 2019) pushed him down a little bit. But he played all 16 games in 2019 and Ebron is gone now. Doyle should solidly be the team’s top tight end for 2020, and a return to his 80-catch, 700-yard 2017 is easily on the table.
Marlon Mack averaged 84.3 scrimmage yards per game and scored 10 touchdowns in 12 games in 2018. He averaged 83.8 yards and scored 8 touchdowns in 14 games in 2019. On the surface, those numbers don’t appear that different. Mack had four hundred-yard games in 2018 and scored at least one touchdown in all four, two touchdowns in three of them. Last year, he had only three hundred-yard games, was held scoreless in two of them, and his only two-score game came (a) when he had only 77 yards and (b) in a meaningless Week 17. Of his seven career hundred-yard games, six have come in Colts wins. If you assume the team will be better in 2020 than it was in 2019, that means good things for Mack.
Of course, that’s the assumption. Which brings us to …
The new arrivals
Obviously, I’m projecting here, since the offseason hasn’t really begun in earnest. But it would be a big upset if the Colts went into next season with Jacoby Brissett as the starting quarterback. The popular guess right now is that Philip Rivers will end up in Indy, but there are so many moving parts in this offseason’s quarterback market that it could be any one of a dozen different names, and all dozen are likely to be much better than Brissett has been.
First off, that’s great news for Hilton. In 51 games since 2014 with Andrew Luck as his quarterback, he’s averaged 17.0 PPR points per game. In 35 games with not-Luck (Brissett, Matt Hasselbeck, Brian Hoyer, Scott Tolzien, Josh Freeman, Charlie Whitehurst), that average drops to 11.7. Yes, Luck is likely better than whoever is under center for the Colts in 2020, but whoever is under center is likely better than that motley crew as well.
Second, a better quarterback almost invariably means a better team, which means more wins, which means more production for Mack (and less production lost to Nyheim Hines, which is bad news for Hines but good news for fantasy players who want numbers concentrated to as few running backs as possible).
And finally, receiver. Alongside Hilton (who only played 10 games), the Colts had Devin Funchess (who played only a single game) and Parris Campbell (who played seven spread out over the full season and caught only 18 passes). That meant that Zach Pascal was the team’s leading receiver, at 607 yards. The top wide receiver after Pascal and Hilton was (a hundred bucks says you wouldn’t guess this) Marcus Johnson’s 277 yards.
In other words, the Colts will be adding at least one receiver this offseason. Whether that’s through the draft (one of the most stocked receiver drafts in recent memory) or free agency (Amari Cooper and A.J. Green headline a decent market), the Colts will have Hilton, Pascal, Campbell, and Big Name X for 2020, and that’s just worlds of improvement.
Will the Colts win the AFC South in 2020? That’s hard to predict right now. The Texans have been very good, and the Titans made great strides last year (and the Jaguars also exist). But for the fantasy conversation, if you’re looking for a team set to make some significant improvements in 2020, the Colts (my Colts) are the team to target.