2020 storylines: The QB battle
(All this week, I’m taking a look at what I expect to be some of the top storylines of the 2020 fantasy football season.)
One tradition I had during my time at PFF was to take some time near the end of February for storylines for the next season. It was a way to really signify the changing of the calendar and look forward. And because it’s 2020, and I am a horrific cliché, I thought I’d do it again this year and call it “2020 foresight.”
Just kidding. I refuse to call it that. (This way, I can point out a quasi-clever theme but also pretend I am above such things. Because I’m clever.) But that series does show up here, with a breakdown of what I see as some of the top fantasy football storylines of the 2020 season.
Storyline 1: The battle for No. 1 QB
Lamar Jackson will likely be the first quarterback off the board in drafts for 2020. And rightfully so, given that he’s coming off the second-best fantasy season for a quarterback in NFL history. Of course, the reason this is a debate is because the only person with a higher point total is the guy who will be going near him in drafts, Patrick Mahomes, whose 2018 season beat Jackson’s 2019 by 1.4 points despite Jackson not playing in Week 17.
In other words, the last time we saw Lamar Jackson, he was putting up the best season we ever saw, and the last time we saw a 16-games Patrick Mahomes, he was also putting up the best season we ever saw. And now we get to (hopefully) see the two of them battle for supremacy (both fantasy and real) in the AFC and all of the NFL for the next who-knows-how-long. It’s Brady vs. Manning 2, only if Brady and Manning were actually exciting to watch.
(Don’t @ me for that. Brady and Manning are two of the all-time greats, and seeing them play is/was almost always a clinical display, a masterclass in quarterbacking. But if only because between the two of them they had 750 pounds of legs, they weren’t exactly gif legends.)
Assuming both stay healthy, it’s going to be a fun battle in 2020. It’s very early, but per Fantasy Football Calculator ADP, Jackson and Mahomes are literally going back-to-back in drafts so far. So which should you opt for?
The case for Jackson
Rushing. Jackson ran for over 1,200 yards last year, the all-time QB record. Since the start of 2018, he has 1,901 rushing yards, 760 more than any other quarterback and almost 1,000 clear of third place. And that’s with him only starting seven games in 2018. While it might not be fair, rushing just matters so much more for fantasy. A 25-yard touchdown run is 8.5 points; a 25-yard touchdown pass is 5.0. For most quarterbacks, rushing is a boost on the end, the sprinkles on the ice cream sundae, and so the disproportionate nature of rushing scoring for fantasy isn’t that important. But the scale has been tipping in recent years as rushing has become more important for quarterbacks, and with Jackson breaking the mold altogether, we might eventually have to have a fantasy reckoning with quarterback scoring to make it not quite so cheat code-y.
For now, though, the scoring is the scoring, and assuming your league has a typical scoring system, Jackson has a massive head start over the rest of the field. But we knew that about Jackson before last season. We knew that about him five dang years ago. What we weren’t as sure about was whether his passing skill could form an appropriate complement to his rushing. And last year, it definitely did. A quarterback who can rush for more than 1,200 yards and lead the league in passing touchdowns is a justifiable No. 1 pick at the position forever and ever.
The case for Mahomes
Both quarterbacks’ touchdown percentages were insanely high in their big-time seasons — among all 116 quarterback-seasons with more than 10 pass attempts in 2018 or 2019, Jackson’s 9.0% touchdown percentage in 2019 was the highest, and Mahomes’ 8.6 in 2018 was second. The league average for all quarterbacks over the last two years is 4.6%; for quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts, it’s 4.7%; for at least 250 attempts, it’s 4.8%. Among all active quarterbacks, only Deshaun Watson’s 2017 had a higher percentage than Jackson’s, and only Watson, Jackson, Aaron Rodgers’ 2011, and Tom Brady’s 2007 top Mahomes’.
In short, these two might be the best two quarterbacks in the game (not a hard case to argue), but the odds that they are a whole class above just about any quarterback ever are pretty slim. You can bet on those percentages dipping.
So why is that a point in Mahomes’ favor? Because his number simply appears to be less egregious than Jackson’s. The Ravens quarterback had a 3.5% TD percentage in his rookie year — not necessarily a huge point, since he was used sporadically and was a rookie thrust into an offense not suited for him, but a data point nonetheless. Mahomes last year did see his TD percentage drop off from his ridiculous 2018, but it was still eighth in the league, a perfectly solid 5.4%.
On top of that, by supporting cast, it’s simply no contest. Mark Andrews in Baltimore is a strong tight end, but Travis Kelce is the best receiving tight end in the game (or maybe 1A if you want to nitpick). Meanwhile, the Chiefs have in Tyreek Hill one of the top handful of receivers in the game, and it wouldn’t be very hard to argue Sammy Watkins is better than anyone in Baltimore as well. Mecole Hardman would comfortably be the Ravens’ No. 2 receiver. At running back, Damien Williams had more receptions in 11 games last year than Mark Ingram had targets in 15 games. Even if you assume the Ravens will bring in a host of reinforcements for Jackson this offseason (and it would be a shock if they didn’t), Mahomes’ supporting cast will be a clear tier ahead.
The decision
It’s still Lamar Jackson. It’s painfully close, but Jackson’s insane rushing skill is the cheat code unless and until we adjust fantasy QB scoring systems. Neither guy is likely to set the all-time scoring record again, because nobody is ever likely to do that. But assuming these two stay healthy in 2020, it would be an upset if they weren’t 1-2 in fantasy scoring in some order.
You won’t be upset with either one. But the battle between Jackson and Mahomes could be the top fantasy storyline of the 2020 season.