The bracket: Which division has the best fantasy football roster? (Semis)
We’re on to the semifinals of our fantasy football bracket, figuring out which NFL division can put together the best fantasy roster.
Check out the Part 1 — AFC East vs. NFC East and AFC North vs. NFC North — and Part 2 — AFC South vs. NFC South and AFC West vs. NFC West — from earlier this week.
So there are eight divisions around the league, and the first round was all AFC vs. NFC matchups. Now, with four divisions left, we have … all NFC divisions. The AFC divisions lost all four matchups, with three of them being pretty decisive losses. It’s not that the AFC lacks star power — the top two quarterbacks and top tight end in the league are all AFC teams — but there are so many more awful-for-fantasy teams in the AFC that it was a clean NFC sweep.
Today, we do NFC East vs. NFC North and NFC South vs. NFC West. Reminder, these are deeper PPR rosters — two QB, three RB, four WR, two TE, one defense. I built the rosters using ESPN’s consensus rankings.
NFC East vs. NFC North
Quarterback
NFC East: Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz
NFC North: Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford
History is definitely on the side of the NFC North in this exercise; Rodgers is the only one of this group who we can already say will be a Hall of Famer, and Stafford is going to have some yardage records by the time he retires. But this is for 2020. And while both NFC North guys have some nice upside — particularly if this were a best-ball format — there is a strong argument to be made that both Rodgers and Stafford would come after both NFC East guys here (they are both definitely after Dak, and then we can talk about them relative to Wentz).
Winner: NFC East
Running back
NFC East: Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Miles Sanders
NFC North: Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones, D’Andre Swift
There is huge upside throughout the top four names here, and then Sanders and Swift are interesting third names (with Sanders probably a little ahead). If the Packers hadn’t brought in A.J. Dillon in the draft — signifying a strong chance that Jones might lose out on at least goal-line touches and therefore hurting his TD upside — we might have a real debate here. But Sanders is enough ahead of Swift, and Jones’ stock has been hurt enough, that we have to side with the NFC East here.
Winner: NFC East
Wide receiver
NFC East: Amari Cooper, Terry McLaurin, Michael Gallup, Sterling Shepard
NFC North: Davante Adams, Kenny Golladay, Adam Thielen, Allen Robinson
For all the NFC East can offer at quarterback and running back, it’s much more fallow at wide receiver, where Shepard would struggle to crack most of the other divisions’ rosters. Cooper has elite upside, to be sure, and McLaurin had plenty of big games as a 2019 rookie. But compared to the roster in the NFC North, where all four guys could easily be considered a fantasy WR1, the NFC East slides a bit.
Winner: NFC North
Tight end
NFC East: Zach Ertz, Evan Engram
NFC North: T.J. Hockenson, Irv Smith
So the NFC North has by and large decided to ignore upside tight ends for fantasy. I mean, that isn’t entirely true — Kyle Rudolph has a strong fantasy history, while Hockenson, Jace Sternberger, and Cole Kmet all have long-term upside — but for 2020, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if there were no fantasy starters in that division, while the NFC East has two top-six options. Easy call.
Winner: NFC East
Defense/special teams
NFC East: Dallas Cowboys
NFC North: Chicago Bears
The Cowboys could be an interesting bye-week fill-in for fantasy. But the Bears are likely a weekly starter in most any league, with far greater upside than anyone in the East.
Winner: NFC North
Final decision: NFC East
NFC East team population: Cowboys 5, Eagles 3, Giants 3, Washington 1
NFC North team population: Lions 4, Packers 3, Vikings 3, Bears 2
The North comfortably wins at wide receiver, but the East’s advantage just about everywhere else more than wipes that out. We will be progressing further without Dalvin Cook, Davante Adams, and Kenny Golladay. Fare thee well.
Here’s the chart (East in green, North in orange):
Lots of green up high, right?
NFC South vs. NFC West
Quarterback
NFC South: Tom Brady, Matt Ryan
NFC West: Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson
The NFC South can hang its hat on its depth, with Drew Brees not even making this roster. But Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson are both rock-solid top-six fantasy options, while the NFC South contingent are more like super-late QB1s. And since we don’t care about guys who don’t make this roster, let’s opt for the guys out West who add plenty of rushing ability to their passing stats.
Winner: NFC West
Running back
NFC South: Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Todd Gurley
NFC West: Kenyan Drake, Chris Carson, Raheem Mostert
Nobody would be especially shocked if Drake or Carson sneaked into the back of the RB1s in 2020, and Mostert could be an interesting guy if he can steal Tevin Coleman’s touches. They’re all interesting. But that’s about it, while the South has the clear-cut top overall pick, a guy entering his third year as a solid top-five guy, and someone who is just a year removed from leading the league in fantasy points per game in back-to-back years. This ain’t hard.
Winner: NFC South
Wide receiver
NFC South: Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans
NFC West: DeAndre Hopkins, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Lockett
Hopkins could legitimately be the overall WR1, even in Arizona in a new offense with plenty of mouths to feed. You know who else could be the overall WR1? Every single guy on the NFC South roster, if things break right. Meanwhile, Woods and Kupp and Lockett are all pretty solid WR2 options, but none of the three is likely to finish much above that (and D.J. Moore didn’t even make the South’s roster!).
Winner: NFC South
Tight end
NFC South: Rob Gronkowski, Jared Cook
NFC West: George Kittle, Tyler Higbee
There is a world where Gronk comes back like old Gronk and jumps right up to No. 1 at the tight end position. And even if he does, the Kittle/Higbee combo is likely superior to Gronk/Cook, because Kittle will likely be right there with Gronk, and Higbee is a notch ahead of Cook. Add in the very significant chances Gronk is nowhere near his old self, and this one’s easy.
Winner: NFC West
Defense/special teams
NFC South: New Orleans Saints
NFC West: San Francisco 49ers
The Saints will be a starter most weeks, a unit with significant upside in the right matchup. The 49ers? Might be fantasy’s No. 1 defense. Easy call.
Winner: NFC West
Final decision: NFC South
NFC South team population: Buccaneers 4, Saints 4, Falcons 3, Panthers 1
NFC West team population: Cardinals 3, Seahawks 3, 49ers 3, Rams 3
The West actually wins more position groups here (3-2), but given that two of them are tight end and (especially) defense, that only matters so much. Meanwhile, the South’s seriously decisive wins at running back and wide receiver are so overwhelming that they carry the day here.
The chart (South in fuschia, West in blue):
(Friday: The finals, NFC East vs. NFC South)