The bracket: Which division has the best fantasy football roster? (Part 2)
Which division can put together the best fantasy football roster? It’s a silly quest, but that silly quest is mine. On Tuesday, the competition started, as I squared off the East divisions and the North divisions against one another, with the NFC side of things winning both of those matchups. That meant we lost Lamar Jackson and Odell Beckham Jr. and … well, a bunch of crap in the AFC East right away.
Today, we do the South divisions and the West divisions. Reminder, these are deeper PPR rosters — two QB, three RB, four WR, two TE, one defense. I built the rosters using ESPN’s consensus rankings.
AFC South vs. NFC South
Quarterback
AFC South: Deshaun Watson, Ryan Tannehill
NFC South: Tom Brady, Matt Ryan
The AFC South carries the top of this, with Watson a viable contender to be a top-three fantasy quarterback in 2020, something no one in the NFC South can really claim. The NFC South has the depth — Drew Brees doesn’t even make the roster — while Ryan Tannehill is the QB2 in the AFC South. He has upside, sure, but it’s virtually unanimous that he’s likely to regress from his 2019 heights in 2020, and that’s enough to make this decision.
Winner: NFC South
Running back
AFC South: Derrick Henry, Leonard Fournette, David Johnson
NFC South: Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Todd Gurley
The AFC South group is strong! Henry is an easy top-10 (or better) back, Fournette is almost certainly a top-15 guy, and while Johnson is a question mark, he has RB1 upside. The division also has whoever takes the lead in Indianapolis. It’s certainly a strong group — much stronger than, for example, the Le’Veon Bell/Devin Singletary/James White contingent out of the AFC East. But the NFC South has two top-five backs. The AFC South is good, but nowhere near good enough.
Winner: NFC South
Wide receiver
AFC South: A.J. Brown, T.Y. Hilton, D.J. Chark, Will Fuller
NFC South: Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans
You want a mismatch? The top AFC South receiver, Brown, comes in only 17th in the ESPN rankings. The NFC South not only has the four above guys (all in the top eight!), but D.J. Moore is also a top-10 receiver who doesn’t even make this team. Brown, Hilton, Chark, and Fuller all have good upside — especially in best-ball — but this is a mismatch.
Winner: NFC South
Tight end
AFC South: Jack Doyle, Jonnu Smith
NFC South: Rob Gronkowski, Jared Cook
Gronk is just about the biggest question mark in the world heading into the season. Doyle and Smith are both high-floor but seriously low-ceiling options. Cook alone would probably carry this for the South, but add in Gronk’s upside and this is a clear decision.
Winner: NFC South
Defense/special teams
AFC South: Indianapolis Colts
NFC South: New Orleans Saints
This is probably the closest of any of these matchups, and I wouldn’t fight hard against either choice. The rankings have the Colts slightly higher, and my own rankings do as well.
Winner: AFC South (they got one!)
Final decision: NFC South
AFC South team population: Titans 4, Texans 3, Colts 3, Jaguars 2
NFC South team population: Buccaneers 4, Saints 4, Falcons 3, Panthers 1
This was a runaway. The AFC won defense (barely) and you could argue quarterback if you felt like it, but the flex positions were such a mismatch that there really isn’t much to discuss. I have put together a chart marking where each team falls in the rankings, to better visualize the matchup (NFC South in fuschia [?], AFC South in red):
Pretty clear.
AFC West vs. NFC West
Quarterback
AFC West: Patrick Mahomes, Drew Lock
NFC West: Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson
The conversation between Lock and Derek Carr and Justin Herbert/Tyrod Taylor as the West’s QB2 is an interesting enough one, but the Broncos have surrounded Lock with enough weapons that you probably have to lean his way. And obviously Mahomes is a superstar as the division’s QB1. But the gap between QB1 and QB2 in the West means that the NFC West, with two possible top-six quarterbacks, takes it.
Winner: NFC West
Running back
AFC West: Austin Ekeler, Josh Jacobs, Melvin Gordon
NFC West: Kenyan Drake, Chris Carson, Raheem Mostert
Drake and Carson both have monster upside, and Mostert theoretically does as well if he were to get the job to himself (which is miles away from a sure thing). And you could easily poke holes in the AFC guys (Jacobs and Gordon have competition for touches, Ekeler might not be cut out for a bell-cow workload). But ultimately, this one pretty clearly tilts the AFC’s way.
Winner: AFC West
Wide receiver
AFC West: Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy
NFC West: DeAndre Hopkins, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Lockett
Remarkably, Hill is the only AFC receiver in the top 12 of ESPN’s receiver rankings, though he’s still behind Hopkins. The next five guys (Allen, Sutton, Woods, Kupp, and Lockett) all come within six spots of one another between WR15 and WR20. Really, this is a painfully close matchup … until you get to the back of the AFC West’s group. I love Jeudy’s upside long-term, but in the short-term, he’s firmly behind Sutton in a question-mark offense that could be RB-heavy. Jeudy making the team decides it.
Winner: NFC West
Tight end
AFC West: Travis Kelce, Darren Waller
NFC West: George Kittle, Tyler Higbee
This is an elite matchup, to the point that Hunter Henry doesn’t even make the AFC’s team. Kelce and Kittle are just about a toss-up as the league’s TE1, with Kelce having perhaps a tiny edge. Waller is ahead of Higbee as well, though also only by a little. But that’s two “by a little” wins out of two positions, which means we know the answer.
Winner: AFC West
Defense/special teams
AFC West: Denver Broncos
NFC West: San Francisco 49ers
I wouldn’t be blown away with either of these defenses being 2020’s No. 1 finisher, though the 49ers clearly have a higher floor and a better shot at the crown. I love what the Broncos have done in keeping their defense strong over the years while cycling individual pieces in and out, but they’re a pretty clear step behind the 49ers as a unit.
Winner: NFC West
Final decision: NFC West
AFC West team population: Broncos 5, Chiefs 3, Chargers 2, Raiders 2
NFC West team population: Cardinals 3, Seahawks 3, 49ers 3, Rams 3
This is (easily) the closest matchup of any of the first-round faceoffs. But in the end, the NFC (which took three positions compared to the AFC’s two) wins, largely because the lowest pieces on the AFC roster (Drew Lock and Jerry Jeudy) pull the overall roster down. I wouldn’t fight anyone who said AFC here, but in the end, the NFC beats the AFC at all four divisions.
Here’s the chart. AFC West in gray, NFC West in blue:
(Thursday: NFC East vs. NFC North, NFC South vs. NFC West)