The best and worst best ball RBs

Thursday, I identified some of the best and worst best ball options at quarterback from 2019 and investigated what that might mean for 2020. The series continues today with a look at running backs.

Remember, the best ball format — which means drafting a team at the start of the season and then that’s it, and you automatically get your highest weekly performances started for you — rewards ceiling. Sure, you need a high floor from some players, but the huge weekly numbers are where you win the best ball game.

Using marginally arbitrary thresholds for “elite” weekly performances — 25 points for quarterbacks, 20 for running backs/wide receivers, 15 for tight ends — I worked up how often every player put up elite weeks in 2019. Below are the running backs, along with what that means for 2020.

Best ball helpers

Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers

(20-plus points 14 times in 16 games, 87.5%)

McCaffrey’s numbers in 2019 were obscene, but then you knew that. But the fact that he barely ever had anything like a floor might be the most notable thing of all. Fourteen times in 16 games? That’s incredible. McCaffrey won’t be as good in 2020 — more or less because he almost can’t — but he’s still going to be the No. 1 overall fantasy pick, and it’s warranted.

Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings

(7 times in 14 games, 50.0%)

One of my favorite things to track every year is non-quarterbacks who reach 10 non-PPR points the deepest into the season. Ezekiel Elliott did it all season in his rookie year (except the Week 17 game he sat out), but typically, the list is exhausted by around Week 10 or 11. Last year, Cook made it the longest, reaching 10 points in every game he played until the Week 15 game where he got hurt and missed the last two weeks of the season. He scored at least one touchdown in 11 of his 14 games and topped 100 scrimmage yards in eight. Health is the only concern he has.

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans

(7 times in 15 games, 46.7%)

Henry had a massive end to his 2018 season, but he actually only crossed the 20-point threshold twice that season. But after fully pushing Dion Lewis to a backup role in 2019, he (forgive the pun) ran with the bell-cow job. Once again, though, Henry’s best performances came late. Over his last seven games, he had 12 of his 18 touchdowns and had 150-plus yards four times. I still worry about the weekly ceiling of a player with as little receiving work as Henry, but the worries are much less.

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys

(Each 7 times in 16 games, 43.8%)

It’s funny that Ekeler and Elliott put up elite numbers at the same rate, since they had almost nothing at all in common entering the season. Ekeler was a high-profile backup who had been efficient on small workloads but was suddenly going to get more work because of Melvin Gordon’s holdout; Elliott was Ezekiel Elliott. If you had to pick one of these to do it again in 2020, it’s Elliott, but with Gordon out the door in LA, Ekeler is no slouch either.

Best ball hurters

Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns

(0 times in 8 games, 0.0%)

Obviously Hunt missed the first half of the season and then was second fiddle to Nick Chubb upon his return, but the latter of those will likely still be true in 2020, and that really robs Hunt of much upside.

Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Lions

(0 times in 8 games, 0.0%)

Johnson’s career now consists of 18 games over two seasons (meaning he’s lost 14 to injury), and exactly one game with 20-plus PPR points. He’ll enter 2020 as the Lions’ No. 1 again, but between injury concerns and not much of an observable ceiling so far, he’s not much of a best ball option.

Carlos Hyde, Houston Texans

(0 times in 16 games, 0.0%)

Hyde had his best year as a rusher, with a career-high in carries (245) and yards (1,070), and his second-best yards per carry (4.4) and rushing TD total (6). After most figured he was just about washed out of the league, that’s a fine season. He also had zero multi-score games, only three 100-yard games, and all of 10 receptions for the season. As roster depth/bye week fill-in in your season-long league, Hyde’s fine. But if you’re counting on him? Ugh.

Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts

(1 time in 14 games, 7.1%)

Mack’s fantasy fortunes have been very tied to the Colts’ results the last two years. With the Colts struggling last year, especially in the second half, that was bad news for Mack, who had 23.4 PPR points in Week 1 and 19.7 in Week 17, and never topped 18 otherwise. Still, behind an excellent line and with the chances of a much-improved QB situation in 2020, there is reason for Mack-related optimism.

And this is sort of its own category, but I wanted to look at the 49ers’ backfield:

Raheem Mostert (4 times in 16 games, 25.0%)
Matt Breida (1 time in 13 games, 7.7%)
Tevin Coleman (1 time in 14 games, 7.1%)

The narrative is that Mostert busted out in the postseason, but really was the best and most consistent San Francisco running back all year long. This is still likely to be a muddled backfield in 2020, but it’s hard to imagine them not giving Mostert the first chance.