Fantasy football: Drafting for 2020, ignoring 2019
I’ve had this running hypothesis for a few years that we are too influenced by the most recent action in fantasy football. That’s not exactly a novel theory — “recency bias” is its own whole thing — but where I think we trip up that is that we underestimate exactly how recent qualifies as “recent.”
For example: Most everybody knows, if a player has six weeks of 5.0 fantasy points, then explodes for 120 yards and two scores in the seventh, that barring a situational change — player in front of him gets hurt or something — not to overrate that seventh game. But I contend that we still underrate the effects. To illustrate this, each of the last two years I did an exercise where I drafted a team for the current season based on year-old ADP data. I drafted a fantasy roster for 2018 using 2017 ADP. I drafted a roster for 2019 using 2018 ADP. You get the idea.
It wasn’t difficult. I entered a mock draft, set up a spreadsheet with the previous year’s ADP (thanks, Fantasy Football Calculator), and drafted down the list. The only allowances I made: I could correct for position (i.e., not ending up with all running backs), I could skip players who were retired/still free agents, and I could insert that year’s rookies wherever I wanted. Otherwise, it was just going down the list. It means I miss out on the previous year’s breakout players — I’m never getting D.J. Chark in 2020, for example — but it also means I don’t fall victim to overly downgrading a player based on one down year.
The 2018 experiment went very well — I got Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Amari Cooper, lots of strong performers. The 2019 experiment went more poorly — Antonio Brown, A.J. Green, and Chris Hogan all made the team. The exercise has some problems, of course — as do all exercises that don’t allow for much in the way of common-sense adjustment. But all in all, I think there’s a lesson to be taken from this exercise: Believe in track record. If a player has five years of success and one down year, you can downgrade him, sure, but as a group we often go too far.
So I’m running it back for 2020. This was a roster built in an ESPN mock draft (from the 1.01 slot) in a 12-team PPR draft:
Let’s go position-by-position and see how it went:
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers (9.01), Baker Mayfield (12.12)
It’s easy to downgrade Rodgers now that he’s 36 and his team appears to be dedicating itself to the run, not even drafting a receiver in the best receiver class on record. Still, Rodgers has an enormous ceiling — he had the single top fantasy game for a quarterback last year and two of the three best over the last two years.
Meanwhile, Mayfield was very clearly overdrafted a year ago, but with a year to gel with Odell Beckham Jr. and a revamped offensive line, I have no issue grabbing him as a post-hype sleeper. I’m happy with this duo.
Running back
Saquon Barkley (1.01), James Conner (2.12), David Johnson (3.01), Damien Williams (6.12), Duke Johnson (10.12)
Christian McCaffrey is going to be the 1.01 pick in almost every draft this year, but Barkley is only a year removed from being almost the universal No. 1 pick (not for me — humblebrag — but most people), and the only thing really downgrading him is last year’s injury. If Barkley looks like 2018 again and McCaffrey steps back even a little, this pick is perfectly fine.
Less fine is the pick of Conner in the second round. His injuries have piled up, and the Steelers now have Jaylen Samuels, Benny Snell, and Anthony McFarland to steal touches. Conner has enormous upside now that Ben Roethlisberger is back, but for 2020 this is an overdraft.
I have no issue getting David Johnson in the third. The Texans made a bad trade to acquire him, and if I were starting a real-world roster from scratch I wouldn’t bother with him, but for fantasy, this is the clear No. 1 back in a good offense, and I got him in the third. Strong pick. (And I got his handcuff in Duke Johnson later.)
Damien Williams is the kind of player who fares poorly in this exercise. He was supposed to be a big thing last year (and admittedly he was when healthy), but his team drafted his replacement this offseason in Clyde Edwards-Helaire. There’s still a shot Williams gets the majority of the touches out of that backfield (or close), but he could also be the last man standing in that offense when the music stops and everyone else has a chair. I’m not devastated to have him as my No. 4 RB, but burning a sixth-rounder on him isn’t great.
Wide receiver
Odell Beckham Jr. (4.12), Stefon Diggs (5.01), Brandin Cooks (7.01), Mike Williams (11.01), Denzel Mims (13.01)
Like Mayfield, I think Beckham is due for a huge rebound in 2020, which could make grabbing him in the fourth round a fantastic sneaky pickup. Diggs in the fifth is also a high-ceiling play, though given Josh Allen’s deficiencies and the presence of John Brown and Cole Beasley, it’s also a low-floor option.
Cooks is intriguing. He goes from the third man in a three-receiver offense that has also started incorporating tight ends more to the top guy in a five-receiver offense. Obviously, his injuries are a big concern — he bangs his head once and we might (rightfully) never see him play again — but you could do worse than being Deshaun Watson’s top option.
Williams’ outlook is going to depend hugely on how Tyrod Taylor and/or Justin Herbert fare as the starter. I would have preferred him as a best-ball option and not redraft, but there is a way to make this work.
Mims is the one player I took using my own approach and not the mindless one. I needed a fifth receiver, and the next man up in 2019’s ADP was Dede Westbrook. Getting Mims — almost certainly the No. 1 receiver in his offense, even if it isn’t a great offense — in the 13th round is more than acceptable.
Tight end
O.J. Howard (8.12), Vance McDonald (14.12)
Okay, no sugarcoating here: Tight end is bad. Both guys were expected to be big performers in 2019 and disappointed, and now they’ve been all but replaced by Rob Gronkowski and Eric Ebron, respectively, and have Cameron Brate and Chase Claypool around as other target-takers. Given Gronkowski’s age, brittleness, and year absence, and Ebron’s unreliability, there is a chance one or both of these guys could actually work out, but it definitely isn’t how you’d draw it up. This spot will need some help.
Kicker/defense
Bears DST (15.01), Younghoe Koo (16.12)
I drafted a kicker and a defense. That’s all.