Fantasy football bounceback candidates for 2020

One of the biggest tasks facing fantasy football players every year is figuring out slips. Some players have a bad year that means something (they’re through, for whatever reason), while others have bad years that are just blips. Nail which is which and you’re likely to find draft bargains and avoid landmines. Miss? Good luck.

Today, I’m trying my hand at identifying some prime bounceback candidates for 2020, players who were some degree of fantasy successful in 2018 and saw that disappear last year. Saturday, I’ll look at potential bounceback candidates to stay away from.

(All PPR point totals from Pro Football Reference; PPG ranks based on minimum of six games played.)

Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns

2018: 17.15 PPG, QB20
2019: 14.32 PPG, QB27

Mayfield was overdrafted last year, going off the board on average fourth among quarterbacks after Andrew Luck’s retirement (per Fantasy Football Calculator). That was absurd on its face even in the moment (and yes, I said so at the time), but even conservative predictions didn’t have him struggling as much as he did last year, with the disappointing Browns letting people down across the board.

Still, everything we were optimistic for a year ago holds true in Cleveland, and with another year of development, hopefully a better coach, and perhaps some line reinforcements, we should hold out some high hopes for Mayfield, considering how good he looked a year ago. The No. 4 QB is obviously ludicrous, but he should be a solid QB2 with low-end QB1 upside.

Melvin Gordon, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

2018: 22.96 PPG, RB5
2019: 15.07 PPG, RB14

Exactly how good Gordon’s 2020 is likely to be will be determined in large part by where he lands in free agency (because you probably have a better chance of seeing me as the Chargers running back next season than seeing Gordon). But it’s easy to overlook that Gordon was actually a solid player upon his return, and even better if you gave him a little credit for working his way into game shape — from Week 8 until the end of the season, he was fantasy’s RB8.

There aren’t that many obvious landing spots for a potential starting running back in free agency this year, and Gordon is certainly unlikely to get the payday he had hoped for, but odds are he’ll be a starter in 2020, and he’s likely to have at least as good a line as he did in LA, if not a better one. Bet on him putting up fine fantasy totals.

James Conner, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

2018: 21.54 PPG, RB7
2019: 14.55 PPG, RB17

The Steelers have three running backs we potentially care about. Jaylen Samuels is a receiver (57 targets last year) but not much of a runner (2.7 yards per attempt). Benny Snell is the opposite, with 108 of his 111 touches coming on the ground. Conner is the only one there who can do both. Before he got hurt, Conner had totaled 126 of 189 (exactly two-thirds) of the Pittsburgh backfield touches. Assuming he can stay healthy for a full season, we should expect that sort of workload again, and fantasy points to follow.

Sony Michel, RB, New England Patriots

2018: 10.70 PPG, RB35
2019: 9.54 PPG, RB41

To be sure, Michel wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire as a rookie in 2018, but his hot finish (including the playoffs) had hopes high entering last season. Instead, he was one of the year’s biggest disappointments. But with the Patriots passing game definitely on the downhill, it stands to reason the team will lean on the ground game more in 2019, whether to take the load off Tom Brady or make things easier for his replacement. Either way, Michel should fare better.

Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers

2018: 21.97 PPG, WR1
2019: 17.73 PPG, WR6

Showing the results by points per game is good, because it helps to slice out guys who merely struggled because of injuries, but it does color the disappointment of Adams’ season. Sure, he was still a perfectly fine receiver when he was on the field (albeit with a slow start), but he was a first-round pick last year (albeit an ill-advised one, I said at the time), and if you lose your first-rounder for four games and barely have him for others, it’s hard to call a season a success. Adams scored at an unsustainable rate before last year, but we can still expect him to soak up targets and yards in 2020.

Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Cleveland Browns

2018: 19.20 PPG, WR8
2019: 12.58 PPG, WR33

Core muscle injury? New team? Just one of those things? Maybe Beckham isn’t the super-duper-star he looked like in 2014, but there’s no real reason to think he’s washed, either. Another year with the team, better coaching, hopefully more health, hopefully not as brutal a schedule … Beckham will rebound.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

2018: 18.56 PPG, WR9
2019: 9.43 PPG, WR59

JuJu’s shot at a rebound depends in large part on how Ben Roethlisberger returns in 2020, because Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges are not very good. But assuming Roethlisberger can even approximate his peak value, you’ve got to think JuJu will be the prime beneficiary. Maybe he needs Antonio Brown around to be a solid WR1, but he should offer solid WR2 value with his quarterback around.

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts

2018: 17.07 PPG, WR13
2019: 12.51 PPG, WR34

Over the last six seasons, Hilton has been very tied to Andrew Luck when it comes to fantasy success. He’s been a solid WR2-plus with Luck, barely starter-worthy without. So if you think it’s a matter of having Luck, well, that’s bad news. But the other way to look at it is that the other quarterbacks Hilton has caught passes from in that time include Jacoby Brissett, Matt Hasselbeck, Brian Hoyer, Josh Freeman, Scott Tolzien, and Charlie Whitehurst. Maybe it’s not a matter of having Andrew Luck; maybe it’s just a matter of having someone marginally competent. Assuming the Colts find competence this offseason, Hilton should be fine,

O.J. Howard, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2018: 12.05 PPG, TE6
2019: 5.99 PPG, TE30

I’ll accept that we apparently have to lower ceiling expectations for Howard in a Bruce Arians offense if you’ll concede that this is still one of the most athletic tight ends we’ve ever seen entering the league, he showed plenty of ability in his first two seasons when healthy, and either the Bucs will bring him back next year, indicating they have a plan to better utilize him in 2020, or they ship him elsewhere, indicating someone else has a plan to better utilize him in 2020. Either way, Howard should rebound.