2020 storylines: Youth movement at WR
(All this week, I’m taking a look at what I expect to be some of the top storylines of the 2020 fantasy football season.)
I don’t expect the 2020 wide receiver class to rival the 2014 class in terms of ceiling. That class featured Odell Beckham Jr., Davante Adams, and Mike Evans, all of whom have been top-tier receivers (both for real football and fantasy) at various times in their careers, plus guys who have flirted with that distinction like Brandin Cooks, Sammy Watkins, Jarvis Landry, Allen Robinson, and John Brown.
Heck, Kelvin Benjamin and Allen Hurns and Willie Snead would be borderline success stories in some years, and the latter two weren’t even drafted at all.
I don’t think this year’s class has Beckham/Adams/Evans ceiling. At the least, it doesn’t have that many players with that ceiling. But for a floor? The 2020 class could stand neck-and-neck with 2014 in terms of receivers who have extended football lives. I love this class for a host of immediate #2 receivers with legitimate fantasy upside. Maybe that’s not exciting as what Beckham offered when he entered the league. In fact, it definitely isn’t. But there are a dozen guys who could at least contribute in 2020, and more than that who could (should?) have extended careers.
Let’s run through some thoughts on the most exciting position group in this year’s draft (in order of my dynasty rankings, available to Patreon subscribers).
Jerry Jeudy, Alabama
Most people have Jeudy and the next guy on this list as a tight 1/1A, but for me, Jeudy is a step ahead, and the most likely name in this year’s draft to go the Beckham/Adams route and be a superstar. He rocked at contested catches and averaged 7.3 yards after the catch in the SEC. Jeudy is the player I expect to start right away wherever he lands and be an easy fantasy WR2 in the process.
Ceedee Lamb, Oklahoma
Lamb’s speed isn’t going to blow anyone away with any one facet of his game. He’s good at everything, but transcendent at nothing. I think his ceiling is a team’s low-end WR1, but his floor is a high-end WR2. Just thinking out loud, I would love him as a complement to a team that already has a strong top receiver, like Green Bay or Tennessee or if-you-believe-in-DeVante-Parker Miami.
Tee Higgins, Clemson
Higgins is the guy who has his role most mapped out for him. He is going to be DeSean Jackson, one way or another, with the possibility of being D.K. Metcalf. He sat out the combine, but I think he’ll show a blazing 40 time at his pro day, and he’ll be a deep-ball option right off the bat in his NFL career. That kind of role lends itself to a boom-or-bust fantasy profile, but he should be able to offer a whole bunch of boom.
Laviska Shenault, Colorado
More than just about any other receiver in this class, we really need Shenault to land in the right offense for his skill set. He’s not going to be a typical receiver, instead operating as more of a joystick in the right offense. If the 49ers and Kyle Shanahan didn’t already have Deebo Samuel, that’s where I’d want him to land. Absent that, though, it’s just going to come down to finding the right spot. If he does? He’ll be a fantasy WR1, and he’ll get there in a very creative way.
Jalen Reagor, TCU
Clearly, Reagor’s hands are an issue — he had seven drops last year. But his upside, especially if he gets paired with the right quarterback, is enormous. He rocked the vertical and the broad jump at the combine Thursday, though his 40 was slower than we might have guessed. Still, he’s got a chance to be dynamic, and be that in a hurry.
Justin Jefferson, LSU
I will make the claim now that Jefferson will never be a fantasy WR1, especially not in non-PPR leagues. But if he can find a slot role in an offense that emphasizes the slot — basically, if he can be a Dolphins-era Jarvis Landry — he will be a force quickly, and he could have a whole bunch of receptions. I’m a broken record here, but … high-floor, low-ceiling.
Henry Ruggs, Alabama
Ruggs ran a 4.27-second 40 Thursday, which surprised absolutely nobody. We already knew he was likely the fastest receiver in this year’s class. He only had 98 receptions in his three years at Alabama, but somehow scored on 24 of them, a 24.5% scoring rate that would blow away the field if he can even pretend to come close to that in the pros. He never had more than 46 receptions in a season at Alabama, in part because, well, it’s Alabama and they had so many good receivers, but it does raise a tiny bit of concern about workload.
For me, here is where the cliff is. My next two receivers, Tyler Johnson and Brandon Aiyuk, could easily jump a tier, but if we’re really classifying them right off the bat, here’s where I draw the line between fantasy-relevant names and names we just need to keep in mind.
Patreon subscribers can see my dynasty rankings for receivers through the top 18, plus rankings and explanations for the other positions. But receiver is the headline for 2020. We might not see contenders to be the WR1 out of this class, but the list of starting fantasy receivers in, say, 2021 could have like 10 names from this class and I wouldn’t even blink.